Fresh Produce Discussion Blog

Created by The Packer's National Editor Tom Karst

Sunday, November 30, 2008

National Retail Report - Nov. 28

From the USDA's National Retail Report of Nov. 28:


Retailers wrapped up their Thanksgiving promotions by prominently featuring turkeys on the front page of their ads along with usual ingredients that make up the traditional holiday dinner. Many had extended their ad schedules to accommodate the holiday. Some retailers featured new advertisements with the Christmas holiday theme by promoting gift wrap, tree ornaments, and children’s gifts. Overall fresh produce ad activity showed a decrease of nearly 10% this weekend corresponded to decreases in both fruits (4.5%) and vegetables (20%). The top 5 featured items accounted for about 40% of total ads. These were: sweet potatoes, grapes, celery, pineapples, and blueberries. Grapes, pineapple, and blueberries accounted for 47% of total fruit ads, and sweet potatoes and celery comprised 32% of vegetable ads. The humble Brussels sprout was widely featured in ads this week, however is not reported here.

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Saturday, November 29, 2008

The value of organics and other fruit and vegetable headlines

A Los Angeles Times columnist takes up the issue of the value of organics, and offers an astounding proposition....

Weighing the value of organics
With the recession breathing down our necks, many people are looking for ways to cut the household budget without seriously compromising family well-being. So here's a suggestion: If you buy organic fruits and vegetables, consider switching to less pricey non-organic produce instead.

Hold the e-mails and hear me out: There really is no proof that organic food, which costs about a third more, is better than the conventionally grown stuff.

UCR researchers finds anti cancer link with fruits and veggies

Based on a new study they published, two UC Riverside scientists advocate a daily dietary inclusion of fruit and vegetables to help prevent cancer.

They found that apigenin, a naturally occurring substance in fruit and vegetables, improves cancer cells' response to chemotherapy.

Xuan Liu, a professor of biochemistry, and Xin Cai, a postdoctoral researcher in her lab, report that ingesting apigenin offers a novel approach to stop tumor resistance to cancer treatment.


Green carts and New York

In 2008, Mr. Bloomberg and the City Council speaker, Christine C. Quinn, put their full weight behind a controversial (yet courageous) proposal to create a Green Carts program to place fresh fruit and vegetable vendors in underserved neighborhoods.

Some in the local food industry bitterly opposed that effort, hiring lobbyists to make two central claims, which just happened to contradict each other: one, that low-income people were too ignorant to know that they needed to buy fresh produce, so the initiative would fail because of lagging sales; and two, that the competition from the Green Carts would be so great that it would put existing food stores out of business.

I don’t necessarily agree that the initiative has been “slow to take off.” Many of us anticipated that an initiative so ambitious and new would take a while to be ramped up. In any case, in the antihunger community, we have already begun preliminary discussions on the possibility of combining bulk buying for green carts with bulk buying for pantries and kitchens. We welcome additional help from anyone with interest or expertise in this area.


Produce can harbor food pathogens

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Friday, November 28, 2008

FAS reports of interest

Here are a few of the recent USDA FAS reports that may be of interest to Fresh Talk readers:


Canada fresh deciduous report

Present prospects point to lower production in Canada from the 2008 fresh apple and pear crops. All major apple producing regions of the country experienced weather related production problems and pear producers in Ontario ripped out 250 hectares of trees following the closure of the last fruit cannery in the province. Post forecasts Canadian fresh apple production to fall 11% from a year ago to about 360,000 MT and total fresh pear output to decline by as much as 20-25% to about 9,000 MT. In 2007 Canada became the first country in the world to introduce Harmonized Trade System codes to record imports of organic products and this report provides marketing year data for Canadian imports of organic apples from the United States. According to official trade data, Canada imported 4,340 MT of organic apples from the United States during MY2007/08 (July/June). U.S. organic apples accounted for 3.3% of total Canadian fresh apple imports from the United States of 132,561 MT.

Chile fresh deciduous

The industry forecasts an expansion in fresh apple, table grape and pear production, as weather has been favorable in most growing areas. As a result exports of these selected fruits are also expected to expand in 2009. A larger apple juice output is expected due to a larger availability apple harvest is forecasted.


Chile avocado

Although, Chilean avocado production will continue to increase in the coming years, as there are still a large number of orchards entering their most productive stage, this and next years output is forecasted to be much smaller than last season as heavy frosts during the 2007 winter affected large areas of production. Total area planted to avocados has increased significantly during the last few years, but industry sources indicated that the rate of increase in planted area is expected to level off. Excellent gains made in export markets in the past were the main reason for the significant increase in dedicated land use to avocados. But as prices are falling together with an expected increase in competition from Mexico in key export markets like the US, a slowdown in the planting expansion will occur.


Mexican oranges 2008 Highlights...
MY 2008/09 production of fresh oranges is forecast to be 10 percent lower due to dry weather conditions in the northern states of Mexico. However, production for Key limes and Persian limes is forecast to increase due to overall better weather conditions. Grapefruit production for MY 2008/09 is forecast to be marginally higher than MY 2007/08, although
less grapefruit is expected from the northern parts of Mexico (especially Nuevo Leon) due to dryer weather conditions. Lower FCOJ production levels for MY 2009 (January-December) are forecast due to low international prices.

Mexico apple antidumping dispute
Mexican officials expect resolution of the apple antidumping dispute following the issuance of a final ruling on the case by a bi-national NAFTA dispute panel that should be released in the first quarter of 2009. In a separate but related action the Secretariat of Economy (SE) announced in the Diario Oficial (Federal Register) the annual review of the compensatory quotas currently imposed on seven companies.


Australia deciduous report
Despite recent widespread rainfall, much of Australia’s apple and pear production remains under drought conditions. Poor soil moisture and a lack of irrigation water are expected to persist into the CY 2009 season and are expected to constrain production during this period.
Apple production for CY 2009 is forecast at 290,000 MT. Exports of apples for the CY 2009 season are forecast at 5,000 MT. Pear production for CY 2009 is forecast at 135,000 MT, down significantly on the 150,000 M Total pear exports for CY 2009 are forecast at 3,000 MT.

Poland's winter of discontent
EU farmers in Poland are expressing unhappiness with prices and policies through protests in Warsaw and Brussels to call attention to their complaints. The discontent extends across of a variety of products due to low prices (caused by oversupply and normal cyclical price variations) frustration with processors, and fears of EU subsidy reductions. Many farmers are holding off selling crops in an attempt to wait out the crisis. The big problem will be pring, when farmers need credit. How do you get a new farm loan when you lost money last year? There is intense pressure for action by the EU Commission to address these issues coming from Poland.

South Africa retail report

South African retailer market leaders Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Spar, Massmart and Woolworths
continue adapting to changing conditions and perfecting their store formats while expanding across the borders into the Southern African countries and beyond. 2007 value sales of supermarkets grew by 22 percent to reach US$ 10 billion, mixed retail outlets grew by 7 percent to reach US$ 6 billion, forecourt retailers recorded value sales growth of 9 percent to reach US$ 0.9 billion, and convenience stores grew by 10 percent to reach US$ 0.8 billion.

China retail report
In 2007, total food retail and wholesale sales in China reached USD 104.4 billion, a double digit increase over the previous year, as China's economy continued its impressive growth
and central government policy encouraged private sector spending in order to shift the
economy to a more consumption-oriented path. International retailers in particular have
benefited from their reputation for offering higher quality products than most domestic
retailers, thanks to stricter quality control in a country where food safety is a major concern


Russia: Doctrine of food security
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture is working on a National Food Security Doctrine, which
may be adopted by the Order on the Russian President in December 2008. The concept of
the doctrine was supported by the Upper Chamber of Russian Parliament. The doctrine shall
include several indexes, which will show the target levels of the country's food security,
including per capita agricultural food consumption, share of imports of domestic
consumption, indicative prices for some major agricultural food products

Argentina fresh deciduous

Argentina's CY 2009 total fresh deciduous fruit production is forecast at 1.845 million MT, up 45,000 MT from the previous year, due to higher yields. The total fresh deciduous fruit crop for CY 2008 is expected to decrease to 1.8 million MT, primarily due to frost damage in 2007 which affected apples and pears. Total exports in CY 2009 are estimated to decrease to
800,000 MT as a consequence of the international economic crisis which will affect world
demand. Domestic consumption is expected to remain stable, and imports will continue to
be negligible.

Canadian potato production

November 21, 2008 Statistics Canada released the first estimate of 2008 Canadian potato production. The agency indicated that total Canadian potato production fell 5.4% to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) from 5.0 MMT last year. The estimate mirrored the forecast made last month in the Potato and Potato Product Annual CA8076 issued by the Office of Agricultural Affairs which predicted a 5.4% year-to-year crop decline and a 2008 crop of 4.7 MMT. Comment: Potato producers in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada’s most important potato producing province that normally accounts for about 25% of total Canadian potato production, abandon over 1,000 hectares in 2008 due to extremely wet weather that caused the potatoes to rot in the field. PEI growers were offered federal/provincial financial aid to offset their losses (see page 12. CA8076). Elsewhere, production increases in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario failed to offset the combined production losses in the provinces of PEI, New Brunswick and Quebec resulting in the overall 5.4% decline in the 2008 crop.

Australia oranges

Total orange production for 2009/10 is forecast at 480 TMT, up significantly on the estimated 440 TMT for the previous year. Total orange juice production for 2009/10 is forecast at 12,700 MT, up on the revised figure for the previous year. Post has assumed a return to average weather conditions, in the lead up to, and during the 2009/10 season. This alone should provide a slight increase in production.

Japanese unshu oranges
The 2008 Japanese "Unshu mikan" tangerine crops are expected to decline approximately 12
percent from the previous year. Area planted for tangerine trees continues to decline due largely to Japan's aging farmers. The business recessions caused by global financial system crises have been affecting the Japanese sales of citrus products. Japanese tangerine farmers were forced to ship more fruit to processing due to the stagnant fresh produce market. The new crop Florida grapefruit sales are expected to be 6.5 million cartons, down 7 percent from last year. Short U.S. orange crops are expected to reduce Japanese sales in 2009. Stagnant lemon consumption increased the Chilean lemon inventory.

Changing market perceptions in China

Japan food and beverage markets

China urban consumption trends


Japan's "veggie meetings"


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Thursday, November 27, 2008

Day after Thanksgiving

The recovery of the housing market will signal the economy is on the rebound.  Any signs of hope yet?






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What Thanksgiving teaches us

Here is a link to a thoughtful column describing what Thanksgiving can teach us... Caroline Baum of Bloomberg:




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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Thanksgiving and keeping life in perspective

Thanksgiving is at my brother Doug' s place this year, and it will be a great time to eat, throw the football around, watch television and appreciate family, faith and blessings, not necessarily in that order. Plus, Doug promised a Wii video game tournament this year. That reminds of a blog I saw recently about the six most "soul-sucking" video games, and it made me thankful our kids were never immersed too far in the darker world of computer/video games. Check out the link here and you will find the "Unreality" site pretty funny/tragic. A few excerpts:

It’s funny, but the thing is, people don’t realize exactly how much time it takes to play 10,000 games of Halo.

Later...

I came across a sad forum post while looking up info for this article. It reads:

“I’ve been addicted to Diablo 2 for the longest time, pretty much done everything you can do in that game, but I think it’s time to move on.”

I thought this would be followed by something like, “I’ve realized there’s a lot more to live than clicking a mouse 500,000 times,” but alas, it continued:

“Can anyone suggest something similar to Diablo 2 that still has the hacking/slashing and lots of different weapons/armors/etc? Must have free multiplayer.”



Later....

In Korea, Starcraft is like a religion, and one player, Lee Seung Seop sacrificed everything for it. He sat down at a PC internet café to play Starcraft, fifty hours later, he was dead. During the marathon session he didn’t sleep, barely ate or drank, and his body simply gave out. And so we have our first video game induced death, unfortunately, there are more to come.



TK: I hope your clan has avoided some of the emotional wreckage that technology and software have brought upon us. Meanwhile, I can't wait to get started with that Wii tournament....

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Thermal Pest Control - something new for the field

This news release just rolled across my inbox today. I had never heard of the concept before, but it sounds intriguing....


Dateline: Moraga, CA November 25, 2008: Today Lazo TPC Global, Inc., a California corporation in operation since January 2007, announced that it has begun commercial expansion of its patented technology, Thermal Pest Control. “With TPC, agriculture can finally grow many fruits and vegetables without applying pesticides during the growing season. TPC has proven effective at controlling insect and micro-organism based diseases in numerous grower trials,” stated Marty Fischer, the firm’s President and Chief Executive.

The process applies a high velocity stream of 100º Centigrade (212ºF) heated air onto the crop and surrounding microenvironment. “The effectiveness of the technology comes from briefly changing the microenvironment of the field, orchard or vineyard on a regular basis throughout the growing season,” continued Fischer. “This brief but dramatic change reduces the development of microorganisms, much like pasteurization which also depends on briefly applied 60ºC heat. The hot dry air blanket inhibits insects and insect development without using pesticides that can often damage plant health and reduce natural plant productivity. It’s not that TPC gets rid of all insects, it’s that the technology returns the field to a natural balance in which damaging infestations and diseases are less likely to occur,” continued Fischer. “With TPC the grower treats the plant on a regular basis and not just during infestations. This is a very different concept from the pesticide dependant grower methodology that has characterized agriculture over the last 50 years. TPC works very well in most, but not all, crop situations. There is still much testing needed in the years ahead.”

The technology was developed starting in 1999 by Florencio Lazo, a Chilean agricultural leader from Rosario, Chile, who is Chairman of the global company. Lazo realized that a stream of very hot air, applied for a fraction of a second to plants, does no damage to the plant. “That realization led to years of testing and hard work. My friends though I was crazy, but I knew that all major innovations defy common practice and are almost always met with skepticism,” said Lazo. He developed a machine with special aerodynamics. After several years of trial and error, he had developed the process and machine used today. The TPC patents were filed in 2002 and Lazo began convincing other growers to try his unique approach. “In 2003 a scientist, Robinson Vargas, from The Chilean Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA), a government agency in Chile, helped me test TPC on five acres of my wine grapes. The INIA report, prepared by Vargas, concluded that TPC was as effective at reducing insect presence as pesticides. Vargas noted that the TPC treated vines looked healthier, greener and developed bigger leaves during the season.”

Lazo expanded the testing to growers in New Zealand and Chile and, according to Lazo “most of these growers were surprised at how well the growing method worked. Many of these early users today rely only on TPC to produce their crops. Two of the original growers became so convinced about the future of the technology that they are now involved in the TPC business” continued Lazo. One grower, Mike Lane, who has used TPC at his Hastings, New Zealand wine grape vineyard since 2004 is now Managing Director of Lazo TPC New Zealand, Ltd. Mario Geisse, who uses

TPC to produce Carmenere grapes at Casa Silva Winery in Chile since 2005, is involved along with his family as part of the management team of Lazo TPC in Brazil. In Chile, four wineries are now using the technology to grow wine grapes.

Fischer worked closely with Lazo from 1991 through 1997 when Fischer was Managing Director of the Chilean Fresh Fruit Association in North America. Lazo was on the committee that oversaw the global marketing of the Chilean fruit business and had been the founder and first President of the Chilean growers association, Fedefruta. The two met in Chile in late 2006 and decided to create Lazo TPC Global, Inc. to begin the international expansion of the business. “I was very skeptical about the technology until visiting growers who were using it and tasting the fruit that was being produced. I quickly became convinced that this was the future,” said Fischer. “Since then, we have expanded testing of the technology to many different crops in many countries, setting up the infrastructure of the business around the world and working with selected major growers. We are now prepared to expand beyond the testing phase and begin scaling the technology,” continued Fischer.

Currently the company has about 100 TPC machines placed with major growing organizations in the key growing areas around the world. Machines are in use or on order for Chile, New Zealand, the US, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico and Europe. Each machine can treat between 100 acres and 300 acres a season depending upon the type of crop being grown. “TPC has been effective with most crops such as wine, table and raisin grapes, peaches, plums, nectarine, cherries, kiwi, strawberries, blueberries, blackberries, tomatoes, lettuces, baby greens and other crops,” stated Fischer. “Not only are crops being produced with little or no pesticides, which is the critical issue, but growers frequently experience higher sugar levels, larger fruit, plants that operate at a higher level of photosynthesis, increased yields and earlier harvest dates. TPC allows growers to eliminate or greatly reduce pesticides thereby controlling insects and disease and that takes plant productivity to a higher level”.

Fischer went on to explain that growers are beginning to market the produce grown with TPC under a certification process with an umbrella identity that differentiates TPC produce as “certified, grown without pesticides”. Fischer stated, “TPC capabilities for eliminating or greatly reducing pesticide use in both conventional and organic produce should be embraced by all growers. The unknown is how fast growers, consumers and retailers will respond to this new possibility. Innovations this significant just take time to be implemented,” concluded Fischer. “It is really up to retailers around the world to demand this kind of cleaner produce on behalf of their customers. When they do, growers can now respond.”

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Smells like deflation

Have you noticed the free fall in diesel prices charted in the Fresh Talk chart?Well, here in Kansas, we are paying in the $1.50 range for gas right now. The drop in energy prices should be a good thing, but some are worried. From a recent story on www.canada.com


Canadians, in fact, are seeing energy deflation every time they drive by a gas station. Just five months ago, pump prices in Canada shot past $1.35 per litre and were headed higher. Now, in many parts of the country, gas prices have fallen to 75 cents per litre or lower, and could drop even further.

Falling prices in just one product category, such as energy, are not necessarily a bad thing. And, in fact, many Canadian drivers might cheer dropping gas prices. But when prices across a broad range of categories such as housing, food, appliances and so on, start falling, economists and governments begin to worry. That's because consumers typically respond to a deflationary environment by holding off on some purchases in the expectations that prices will drop further and they will be able to get a better deal.


TK: Consumers may be tighter with their money when it comes to a new sofa, but my presumption is that food purchases won't be put off for "deflationary" worries on the part of consumers. Produce marketers will dodge a bullet on this issue, which is not to say retailers won't try to squeeze f.o.b. prices ever lower.

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Monday, November 24, 2008

PBH - Time to move on

Is the industry ready to let go of "5 a day"? Ready or not, the Produce for Better Health Foundation is asking for all 5 a Day signage to be removed by Jan. 1, 2009. Look for coverage in The Packer on this issue. My initial questions..

How much 5 a Day material/signage is still being used?
What's the adoption rate of Fruits and Veggies - More Matters in the industry?
How fast is the public embracing the "More Matters" message? How does public awareness of the "More Matters"Check Spelling message (this shorthand is problematic to some, I know but "Fruits and Veggies : More Matters" is too long..perhaps FVMM) compared to current awareness of "5 a day"?

PBH was right to put a sunset on use of "5 a day," but the challenge for Elizabeth Pivonka and others is to deploy the resources necessary to bolster the "More Matters" message. The CDC is on board with the new message, and it is time for the entire industry to move on as well.

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Costa Rica - greenhouse vegetables

My last stop in Costa Rica was at a greenhouse vegetable operation. My hosts here Alex Rojas Vargas and Ana Marcela Hernandez. I will develop more coverage of the emerging greenhouse vegetable industry in Costa Rica, but the future includes cucumbers now and tomatoes in the near future...

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Costa Rica - Empacadora La Perla

Costa Rica is a big exporter of cassava to the U.S. My stop at Empacadora La Perla during my visit to Costa Rica showed what cassva looks like in the field. Also pictured, plantains for the domestic market, pumpkins/squash packed for export to the Caribbean.

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Costa Rica - canned pineapple and heart of palm

Another stop on my Nov. 11-15 trip to Costa Rica was at Alpigo, a shipper of canned pineapple and heart of palm. Their website is www.alpigo.com. The company offers canned heart of palm and also an air-shipped vacuum packed fresh product.

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Nov. 21 National Retail report - of cranberries and sweet potatoes

From the USDA National Retail Report:

In this final full week before Thanksgiving, retailers focused ads on turkey and the trimmings for holiday meals; and many altered their ad schedules, mostly in the form of extensions, to accommodate the holiday. Turkey promotions commanded the bulk of front page space in the form of fresh and frozen sales and as the centerpiece of fully prepared meals. Cranberries and sweet potatoes were the most prominently featured produce items.
Overall fresh produce ad activity showed an increase of nearly 21% this week and corresponded to increases in both fruits (3.5%) and vegetables (36%). The top 5 featured items accounted for about 42% of total ads. These were: sweet potatoes, celery, asparagus, grapes, and pineapples. Sweet potatoes alone accounted for nearly 12% of total ads and 20% of vegetable ads. Cranberries, as reported in the seasonal section of this report, were almost as widely featured as sweet potatoes. An array of seasonal items have begun showing up in features over the last couple of weeks. These included: pomegranates, chestnuts, and persimmons as well as a variety of citrus and nuts. Features on potted poinsettia were also noted more often this week than last.

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Google news alerts - fruit and vegetable headlines

As I said in the previous post, now is the time to clear out the inbox of some of my rapidly accumulating Google news alerts. For this entry, I'll hit some of the highlights of the broad "fruits and vegetables" category snatched from the Web in the past few days:

School children to get free fruits and vegetables - Another report from Europe on the new program to provide fruits and veggies to students

Celebs are eating organic - why not you?

7 Wonders of Mediterranean Diet

2009 Commodity outlook
Despite declining energy and agricultural ingredient costs, high financial leverage and weak cash flow generation continue to wreak havoc on the commodity food industry. Liquidity and debt reduction should take priority over share repurchases and acquisitions in 2009, regardless of significant stock price declines and additional assets coming to market. The well-anticipated bankruptcy filing by poultry processor Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (Pilgrim's) and the potential inability of fresh produce manufacturer Dole Food Co. (Dole) to refinance significant near-term maturities illustrate the challenges faced by a low-margin highly levered food company in a difficult operating environment.

Pollan says Obama should call for food reform
Author Michael Pollan -- described as the "Bruce Springsteen of sustainability" -- wants President-elect Barack Obama to work for sustainable foods.
Picture the White House lawn, a 17-acre triumph of petrochemical fertilizers and pesticides. Now imagine five of those acres plowed into a garden where the first family pulls weeds and harvests snow peas for photo ops -- and then eats the peas for dinner.

Eat your veggies: get good grades - TK: Wow: thank the Lord for the great PR fresh produce receives...

In one study, done at the University of Prince Edward Island, 325 junior high school students kept a food diary. On average, the daily intake of fruits and vegetables as well as milk was below national recommendations. The children who ate the most fruits and vegetables on a daily basis had the best academic performance with average scores at about the 90th percentile. There was no association with milk.

Blue Cross/Blue Shield to invest in obesity messaging

Crop of the week - spinach From The Yuma Sun:
Yuma County producers grew more than 6,500 acres of spinach valued at more than $33.5 million in 2005, primarily for prepackaged salads with some grown for wire-bunches. Spinach is the No. 6 ranking vegetable crop grown in Yuma County.

Feast on fruits, veggies this Thanksgiving

For those lucky enough to still have a house, a table and a food budget, be thankful and let fruits and vegetables be the bulk of what you serve. Unknowingly or just not thinking about it, many of us usually do this anyway. A meat, if you can afford it, can still be the centerpiece of the meal, but it will probably be the most expensive item on the table.
So now, let the far less expensive, but perhaps the most nutritious, fruits and vegetables form the bulk of the meal. There's no doubt about it, the festive color comes almost exclusively from horticultural foods. The greens of the lettuce, cabbage and broccoli along with green beans combined with the yellows and oranges of carrots, squash, sweet potatoes and corn help make an attractive table of food in nearly anyone's eyes.


You can still eat healthy on a budget - TK: the industry needs more consumer messaging about value....

Another way to save: consume foods that pack in a lot of nutritional value. By eating a piece a fruit instead of a serving of chips, you're more likely to feel satisfied and full for longer.
A good rule of thumb, recommends Nelson, is to shop primarily in the perimeter of the store; it's in the middle aisles where people can be easily tempted to pick up the grab-and-go foods and snacks
.


Brussels and the cucumber The Wall Street Journal
For decades the EU has spent much of its time issuing minute rules that govern the use of mayonnaise, the definition of an egg, the diameter of a peach. All this was in the name of "consumer protection" -- as if European grocery shoppers might just drop dead at the sight of a misshapen carrot. It also kept an army of bureaucrats in business, and even a few editorial writers. But rules like these also cost consumers billions in higher grocery prices and taxes that support Europe's notorious Common Agricultural Policy. Ms. Fischer Boel cites the revised regulations as an example of the European Commission's drive to cut administrative costs and respond to high food prices and economic distress. "We simply don't need to regulate this sort of thing at the EU level," she says. "It is far better to leave it to market operators." What a thought. Still, this little triumph in deregulation isn't total. The new rules met stiff resistance from 16 of the EU's 27 member states. The EU will also continue to set standards for 10 other fruits and vegetables that account for 75% of the value of EU trade, including apples and tomatoes. The days of "bonkers Brussels bureaucrats," alas, are far from done.


Del Monte takes it all off in "Fruit Undressed"
In "Fruit Undressed," created by Smith Brothers of Pittsburgh, pineapples "go wild," wearing bead necklaces, peaches declare "It's better in the buff," and grapefruit admits it likes "to take it all off.


EU biotechnology report - USDA FAS report 47 pages from USDA FAS
There are seven Member States (MS) commercially producing genetically-engineered (GE) crops, with Spain being, by far, the largest producer. Under the EU policy framework for agricultural biotechnology, MS policy varies greatly. Coexistence frameworks have been set up in most MS or are currently being prepared, and 5 MS continue to maintain national bans. However, the EU is a major consumer of biotech products, mainly soybean meal imported to feed livestock and poultry, with at least 80 percent of EU soy crush estimated to be genetically modified. Finally, agricultural biotechnology research in Europe is declining, mainly due to political pressure.

Russian Federation talks about food security - USDA FAS

South Africa deciduous - USDA FAS 16 pages from USDA FAS
South Africa's Marketing Year (MY) 2008/09 apple production is expected to decrease 2 percent from last year to 720,000 metric tons (MT) due to continued decrease in apple area.
Pear and grape production is estimated to both increase 3 percent to 358,000 MT and 270,000 MT respectively in MY 2008/09.


Mexico announces support program for sorghum, wheat and yellow corn - USDA FAS

Green gets a holiday update - Putting veggies in the Thanksgiving dinner

Farm lessons to city kids - the importance of bees and other topics

The real enemy : corn Not sweet corn, of course. Activists link corn, junk food.

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Riding high in April, shot down in May - Roubini and other headlines

Back at my old familiar place, on my laptop in the middle of the night, updating the Fresh Talk blog, now accompanied by the Michael Buble version of the old Frank Sinatra standard 'That's life" in the background.

"I thought of quitting baby, this heart wasn't going to buy it"

Yes, it's hard to stay away from this blog, even during my vacation days Thanksgiving week. As I review my Gmail inbox, I acknowledge my compulsion for Google news alerts has again created for me a a pile of unread emails. Let's sort through this together....


One my email alerts is for Nouriel Roubini, the economist who has been eerily accurate about the twists, turns and tumbles of the U.S. economy. Here is Roubini on the Web and in my Google news alerts...

State governments in better shape to handle The Great Disruption than The Great Depression
But troubles may only be beginning for state governments, which will be one of the epicenters for what New York University economist Nouriel Roubini predicts will be the "most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-75 and 1980-82 recessions."

How many U.S. banks will fail? A bailout stretching to infinity
Many experts think the FDIC list is much too short and that it is a form of "window dressing" to keep the public from getting panicky. That is almost certainly true. If residential and mortgage failures pick up and consumers default on more and more of their obligations, the actual number of banks which fail could rise sharply between now and the beginning of 2009..New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini predicts that the head count of banks taken over by the agency will go well into the hundreds.

Why is this time different?
So what does Mr. Sunshine conclude? Check this out lads and lassies: "The current recession may end up being three times as long and at least three times as deep (in terms of output contraction) than the last two." Whew!! That's one dour dude, dear friends. Yet, if you look at the market, and the data that is being released on a daily basis, Roubini's case is well founded, as we may be entering the early stages of a deflationary spiral, something not seen to this degree since the 1920s.


Roubini told us so
In early October I predicted – in an interview for Tech Ticker – that the Dow could fall towards the 7000 level by next year and that US equities would fall by 50% relative to their 2007 peak. Such predictions were considered too bearish and extreme at that time but, at the rate at which equities are falling now with this acceleration of a savage deleveraging by leveraged institutions (and even disorderly sell-off by many unlevered players too), the Dow may reach the 7000 before year end rather than in 2009 and we are getting close to a 50% drop in overall equity prices from their peak.


TK: Roubini's bad news extravaganza can last only so long, right? As Sinatra himself said - speaking for all Americans now, "I know I'm going to change that tune, when I'm back on top in June."

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Saturday, November 22, 2008

China fresh apples - USDA FAS

Here is the link to a recent USDA FAS report on Chinese fresh deciduous fruit production, including apples. As noted by apple country economist Des O'Rourke, China's apple output is up this year. From the summary:


China’s apple production is forecast at 28.5 million MT in MY 2008, up 15 percent from the previous year, the result of a high year in the production cycle. Concentrated apple juice production is forecast at 600,000 MT in MY 2008, down 50 percent from the previous year, attributed both to large quantities of carry-over stock and weakening demand in the world market. Industry sources believe that crushers held at least 300,000 MT of stocks at the end of MY 2007, as sky-rocketing prices limited the buying interest of the major world buyers. Apple exports are forecast at 870,000 MT in MY 2008, while CAJ exports are forecast at 700,000 MT in MY 2008, down 13 percent from the previous year, given expected lower demand from Europe and America.

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Friday, November 21, 2008

Farm labor - Nov. 21

From today's USDA farm labor report:



There were 1,117,000 hired workers on the Nation's farms and ranches during the week of October 12-18, 2008, down 3 percent from a year ago. Of these hired workers, 801,000 workers were hired directly by farm operators. Agricultural service employees on farms and ranches made up the remaining 316,000 workers.

Farm operators paid their hired workers an average wage of $10.70 per hour during the October 2008 reference week, up 32 cents from a year earlier. Field workers received an average of $10.05 per hour, up 43 cents from last October, while livestock workers earned $10.19 per hour compared with $10.02 a year earlier. The field and livestock worker combined wage rate, at $10.08 per hour, was up 35 cents from last year. The number of hours worked averaged 41.3 hours for hired workers during the survey week, down 2 percent from a year ago.

The largest decreases in the number of hired workers from last year occurred in California, the Corn Belt I (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio), Southern Plains (Oklahoma and Texas), Appalachian II (Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia), and Appalachian I (North Carolina and Virginia) regions. In California, lack of available irrigation water caused much acreage to be left allow. Planted acreage of cotton, dry beans, and sugar beets declined sharply from 2007. Therefore, the demand for field workers was considerably lower. Wet conditions in the Corn Belt I, Southern Plains, and the Appalachian I and II regions, compared with the previous year's drier reference week, decreased the need for field workers. Lower cattle inventories in the Appalachian regions led to fewer livestock workers being needed.

The largest increases in the number of hired workers from last year occurred in the Pacific (Oregon and Washington), Corn Belt II (Iowa and Missouri),Northeast I (New England and New York), Delta (Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi), and Mountain II (Colorado, Nevada, and Utah) regions. In the Pacific region, increased acreage of cherries, berries, and grapes heightened the demand for hired workers. Despite wetter conditions in the Corn Belt IIregion, compared with the previous year's reference week, increased acreage of major field crops kept the demand for hired workers above last year. In the Northeast I region, drier conditions compared with the previous year's reference week led to a stronger demand for hired workers. In the Delta region, larger cattle and hog inventories increased the demand for livestock workers. Movement of cattle from summer pastures in the Mountain II region
was increasing. Therefore, more livestock workers were necessary.

The 2008 U.S. all hired worker annual average wage rate was $10.59 per hour, up 4 percent from the 2007 annual average wage rate of $10.23 per hour. The U.S. field worker annual average wage rate was $9.78 per hour, up 38 cents from last year's annual average. The field and livestock worker combined annual average wage rate at the U.S. level was $9.89 per hour, up 4 percent from last year's annual average wage rate of $9.49 per hour.

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Food for thought v. Perishable thought

I must say that I have enjoyed a recent "Google Gadget" addition to Fresh Talk called "Food for thought."

I realize some may think I am attempting to mimic the "Perishable thought of the day" (by the way, why not "imperishable thought of the day"?). I've enjoyed what Jim has done with that feature, though I think he overthinks some of the submissions (note his recent over-the- top research into the source of a submitted Lincoln quote)

"Food for thought" is much less ponderous and weighed down by unneeded comment . It is simply there, perhaps penetrating our consciousness, and ultimately asking us to give our internal assent. Consider these for today:


"We can forgive you for killing our sons. But we will never forgive you for making us kill yours."
- Golda Meir, to Anwar Saddat just before the peace talks


"The petty economies of the rich are just as amazing as the silly extravagances of the poor."
- William Feather


TK: In a nod to my decidedly sparse life outside of produce, this is what is on my bookshelf the last couple of weeks:
Nickel and dimed (On not getting by in America) - Barbara Ehrenreich
What's so great about Christianity - Dinesh D'Souza
I am America and so can you - Stephen Colbert

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Apple turnover - a visit with Desmond O'Rourke

Visiting with apple country economist Desmond O'Rourke yesterday, I asked him about the mood among apple growers and shippers.

Of course, I remarked about the Nov. 1 inventory report (covered by Andy Nelson in the Nov. 17 issue of The Packer) and Des remarked the late harvest in Washington picked out longer than expected. The packed fresh crop is now estimated at 109 million cartons, up from 98 million cartons a year ago.

O'Rourke said fujis, golden delicious and granny smith inventories were all up about 20% compared with year ago levels and figure to be under the most pressure. Galas have been heavily sold already, and reds appear to be in decent shape.

On the world scence, he said Europe and China are also talking about bigger than expected crops. The Chinese apple crop is now pegged at 28 million metric tons significantly higher than earlier expectations.

Another reality weighing on the apple market is the fact that California's navel orange crop is much larger than a year ago, so apple face more competition in a tougher economic environment.

Des asked if I had paid attention to the "Operation Mainstreet" program, which Wal-Mart announced earlier this month as a scheme to bring savings to its consumers in time for the Christmas season. He speculated that one of ways that Wal-Mart will do this squeeze their suppliers. Most the press I've read about Operation Mainstreet refers to its impact on consumer electronics, but I don't doubt Wal-Mart will ask concessions of produce shippers as well.

"Either they cut their margin, or reduce what they pay suppliers," O'Rourke noted. Come to think of it, Wal-Mart's first play will be suppliers...

Back to apples.

Despite the recent shift in market psychology, Des beleives apples should be in decent shape during a recession. Not too many people will cut out apples from their produce purchases - kiwanos, yes, red delicious, no - unless perhaps they are newly unemployed and cutting out all produce purchases.

Looking ahead, O'Rourke said one unknown is whether the credit crunch could reach apple country. While most farm lenders have said the banking industry's troubles shouldn't impact well run ag businesses, O'Rourke said it is uncertain how local banks will handle credit renewals for grower-shippers considering continuing U.S. economic trouble and the larger apple crop size.

"There have been some big chinks in the market during the last couple of months," he said.


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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Food labeling poll - Consumer Reports

Go here for a link to for a consumer poll on food labeling from Consumer Reports. The poll, issued Nov. 11, has some useful and interesting tables.

About the poll:


The Consumer Reports National Research Center conducted a telephone survey using a nationally
representative probability sample of telephone households. 1,001 interviews were completed among
adults aged 18+. Interviewing took place over October 23-26, 2008. The sampling error is +/- 3.2% at a 95% confidence level.



Here is one result that will grab you: more than 60% of consumers think the FDA should inspect domestic and foreign food facilities one time each month. Also, you will find stats on consumer confidence in the FDA, their opinion about traceback and recall authority.

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Waxman defeats Dingell for House Energy & Commerce chair

Calif. Rep. Henry Waxman has wrested control of the House Energy & Commerce Committee from Rep. John Dingell of Michigan. Here is the link to coverage of Waxman's win.

Waxman figures to be more liberal than Dingell would have been - not only relating to fuel standards for automakers - but also relating to global warming legislation and possibly food safety regulations for the produce industry.


Here is WSJ analysis of Waxman. From the piece:

The soon-to-be ex-chair John Dingell (D., Mich.) may be a conservative on energy and auto emissions, but he has been one ornery activist for change at the FDA and the industries it regulates. But there may be little comfort for those pining for change. Waxman hasn’t been bashful about bashing the same folks.

From Waxman's site, his bio:



Representative Henry A. Waxman represents California's 30th Congressional District, which includes the complete cities of Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Agoura Hills, Calabasas, Hidden Hills, Malibu, Westlake Village and West Hollywood, as well as such areas of Los Angeles as Beverly-Fairfax, Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Beverlywood, Topanga, Agoura, Chatsworth, West Hills, Canoga Park, and Westwood.

In 2007, Rep. Waxman became Chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, the principal investigative committee in the House. From 1997 to 2006, Rep. Waxman served as Ranking Member of the Committee, conducting investigations into a wide range of topics from the high cost of prescription drugs to waste, fraud, and abuse in government contracting. He formed a Special Investigations Division that prepared hundreds of investigative reports on local and national topics for Members of Congress.

Since 2001, Rep. Waxman has worked to oppose efforts by the Bush Administration to block congressional oversight and roll back health and environmental laws. He has launched investigations of White House ties to Enron, contract abuses in Iraq, and the politicization of science. He has also fought for disclosure of the names of the energy industry lobbyists who shaped the White House energy plan and filed suit to force the Administration to released "adjusted" data from the 2000 Census that corrects for the undercount of minorities. In addition, Rep. Waxman has repeatedly fought efforts by EPA to relax important air pollution and drinking water protections and by FDA to weaken enforcement of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act.

A leader on health and environmental issues, Rep. Waxman has fought for universal health insurance, comprehensive Medicare and Medicaid coverage, tobacco regulation, AIDS research and treatment, air and water quality standards, pesticide regulations, nursing home quality standards, women's health research and reproductive rights, affordable prescription drugs, and community rights to know about pollution levels.

Rep. Waxman has been involved in health issues since 1969, when he was appointed to the California State Assembly Health Committee. In Congress, Rep. Waxman has sponsored a long list of health bills that have been enacted into law. These measures include the Ryan White CARE Act, the Nutrition Labeling and Education Act, the Breast and Cervical Cancer Mortality Prevention Act, the Safe Medical Devices Act, the Patent Term Restoration and Drug Competition Act, and the Orphan Drug Act.

Rep. Waxman has also passed legislation that improves the quality of nursing homes and home health services and that sets policy for childhood immunization programs, vaccine compensation, tobacco education programs, communicable disease research, community and migrant health centers, maternal and child health care, family planning centers, health maintenance organizations, and drug regulation and reform.

Throughout the 1980s, Rep. Waxman championed national health care reform and improvements in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. He successfully led the fight for improved prenatal and infant care for low-income families, for protection against impoverishment for the spouses of persons in nursing homes, and for more services in the community for people needing long-term care. He has also been an advocate for prescription drug coverage in Medicare for people with high drug expenses.

A longtime defender of the environment, Chairman Waxman most recently introduced the Safe Climate Act of 2006, which would set emissions targets to avoid dangerous, irreversible global warming. He was one of the primary authors of the 1990 Clean Air Act, which sets out a comprehensive program to combat smog, acid rain, toxic air emissions, and ozone depletions. Rep. Waxman also sponsored the 1986 and 1996 Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments, the 1996 Food Quality Act (which regulates pesticides), the Radon Abatement Act, and the Lead Contamination Control Act.

Chairman Waxman is a leader in efforts to assist the elderly by providing them with opportunities for better health care through such programs as improved long-term nursing care and better housing and nutrition. A strong defender of the Social Security System, he fought moves to reduce benefits and to increase the retirement age. He was a co-author of legislation that abolished mandatory retirement for Federal employees and raised the retirement age in the private sector from 65 to 70.

From 1979 to 1994, Rep. Waxman chaired the Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Health and the Environment. He served as the Subcommittee's Ranking Member in 1995 and 1996. Rep. Waxman has also served on the Energy and Commerce Committee and sat on the Subcommittee on Health, the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality, and the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations.

Chairman Waxman has been a leading supporter of the right of women to have freedom of choice with respect to safe and legal abortions, including the full extension of this right to lower-income women who depend on the Medicaid program for health care. He has been at the forefront of efforts to stop any limitations on this right and strongly opposes the prohibition of federally funded clinics from offering abortion information and counseling.

Since coming to Congress, Chairman Waxman has earned the reputation of being an expert on Middle East policy and an effective proponent of American aid to guarantee Israel's security and survival.

Prior to his election to Congress, Rep. Waxman served three terms in the California State Assembly, where he was chairman of the Health Committee, the Committee on Elections and Reapportionment, and the Select Committee on Medical Malpractice. He was the author of such major legislation as the Fair Campaign Practices Act, the Fair Credit for Women Law, and the legislation establishing standards for Health Maintenance Organizations in California.

Henry Waxman was born September 12, 1939, in Los Angeles, and holds a bachelor's degree in political science from UCLA and a J.D. from the UCLA Law School. He and his wife, the former Janet Kessler, have a daughter and son-in-law, a son and daughter-in-law, and four grandchildren.

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