Mexico direct?

Will the pilot program that will soon allow 100 approved Mexican trucking companies to ship beyond the 25 mile border zone result in direct shipments of Mexican produce to U.S. retailers?

From Nogales International:

In about two months, as many as 100 approved Mexican trucking companies will be able to deliver goods beyond the 25-mile border zone for the first time since 1982.At least that's the plan described by U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters during her Friday visit at the Nogales Mariposa Port of Entry.The yearlong pilot program might seem controversial on many counts, including national security, and its affect on U.S. workers and roadway safety, but Peters said its ultimate goal is an increased efficiency that is expected to be cost effective for both U.S. and Mexican consumers.
With U.S.-Mexican trade rising last year to $332 billion, and Mexico exporting $198 billion in goods to the United States, with more than 80 percent shipped by truck, the time for this move seemed right, said officials."Every day thousands of Mexican trucks must drive across our border, through cities like Nogales, and then come to a stop at an imaginary line," Peters said. "There, these trucks must sit idle until a U.S. truck arrives and the cargo is switched from one to the other.Transferring products from one truck to another costs consumers $400 million a year, the U.S. Department of Transportation says, so this program's aim is to cut those costs.

How will this impact Nogales? In a 2004 story for The Packer, I wrote:

Only big buyers in Southwest U.S. cities are likely to request direct shipments, and only the largest and most sophisticated west Mexico shippers moving high volume commodities will be capable of providing direct service, observers said.
The lack of backhaul cargo for Mexican trucks could be a liability in direct shipments to many cities, distributors said.
"If you look at the issue of direct buying from the farmers, it could be feasible for a few really large shippers and big chains to do it," said Allison Moore, director of communications for the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.

TK: Those 2004 predictions about direct shipments may underestimate the eventual reality, but Nogales figures to remain the focal point for west Mexico produce for the foreseeable future.