Chile's stone fruit shortfall

Here is an annual report from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service about Chilean stone fruit. While these reports indicate that Chile's stone fruit output is stable to down, USDA stats show season to date imports of plums are off 7%, while peach imports are up 7%. Chilean nectarine shipments to the U.S. through March 17 were up 32% this year.

Here are some excerpts:

On plums:

Plantings and output of plums are not expected to increase in the coming years. Declining economic returns during the last few years have resulted in uprooting of old low producing orchards. Over 36 plum varieties are planted in Chile. The Friar, Angelo, Larry Ann, Black Ambar and Laroda are the most popular varieties that cover over 50 percent of the total planted area. As a result of the introduction of new varieties, the harvest and export season have now expanded to include a period of more than six months, compared to only a two-month season in the past. An estimated 57 percent of the total planted area to plums and prunes are the fresh consumption varieties. The remainder is accounted for by varieties suitable only for dried prune production.
Although plums are more resistant to adverse weather than other stone fruits, total output was affected again by adverse climatic conditions that reduced almost all stone fruit production, except cherries. For the 2006 production season, output fell more than initially expected. Mild temperatures again during the winter months (May-Aug. 2006) and limited cold hours which affected budding and rain during late spring and early summer in some important production areas affected total plum production for a third year in a row. Exports also are expected to fall accordingly.

On peaches and nectarines:

Total planted area to peaches and nectarines has remained stable during the last few years. New plantings are replacing older orchards and/or replacing old, less acceptable varieties with newly developed ones.
There are over 36 varieties of peaches for fresh consumption and another 36 varieties of nectarines grown and exported from Chile. Peach and nectarine varieties often become obsolete because of changing consumer tastes, even sometimes before trees begin bearing fruit. This, together with high fluctuations in prices during the last few seasons and diminishing returns, likely will prevent any increase in total planted area or production in the long term. However, some expansion of output could be expected in the next few years as orchards reach mature stages of production and as new plantings, which replace aging ones, are undertaken with higher yielding varieties.
However, in general output variations are mainly the result of changing weather conditions. Some varieties also are affected by yearly alternate bearing effect.
For this season (2007), production is estimated to fall again slightly. Mild temperatures during last winter (May-Aug. 2005) and limited cold hours affected budding adversely and rain in the most important production areas in spring and early summer affect production mainly of peaches. Exports also are expected to fall accordingly.


On cherries:

As a result of the introduction of new varieties and the use of better and improved management technologies, cherry production area has expanded significantly both, in the north and the south. Producers, by introducing more weather resistant varieties and planting these further south have expended the production period. Since more than a third of the total planted area is currently in the forming and incremental stage of production, significant increases in output can be expected in the coming years. Industry sources predict production, and consequently, exports will double in volume in the next five years. The main varieties planted continue to be Bing and Early Burlat. Among the main new-planted varieties are Lapins, Van, Stella and Summit. A total of over 70 varieties are planted in Chile.
The mild temperatures last winter and limited cold hours as well rain during spring that adversely affected other stone fruit production, affected cherries only to some degree. However, as significant areas of newly planted orchards are coming into production, an increase in total output is expected for 2007. Exports also are expected to grow accordingly.