Wednesday, March 28, 2007

The corn question

After all the corn is planted, will there be enough land for potatoes, beans and onions? That's the half-serious question that some economists are pondering. Booming ethanol demand is having a widespread impact on producer decisions; Friday's USDA's prospective plantings report will show a big increase in corn acreage - from about 75 million acres to as much as 90 million acres - and those acres will have to come from some place. Wheat and soybean prices are also quite high, so taking acreage from those crops is not a given.

One economist I spoke with said potato acreage may still expand slightly - perhaps two percent - but growers should receive fairly good prices next year.

The spike in ethanol demand and corn production may have unintended consequences, including higher food prices and a wage-price spiral, the economist speculated.

"We may even get a depression out of it, who knows?" he said cheerily.

On the bright side, potato growers may have another good year.

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