When non-traditional becomes traditional

When will non-traditional retailers overtake traditional supermarkets in food and consumables sales? And by the time they do, will there be any truly "traditional" supermarkets left? Questions like these were asked at an Agricultural Outlook Forum session put on by Jon Hauptman, with Willard Bishop Consulting, Barrington, Ill.
He makes a good point about the changes at the traditional supermarket. How many "traditional supermarkets" now have a totally different feel than they did 20 years ago, whether that means a dedicated natural foods section or one-hour photo desk.

In any event, Hauptman said that non-traditional retailers, including Wal-Mart and Whole Foods, are estimated to catch traditional retailers in market share by about 2011. That year, NTRs (shorthand permitted here) will command 42.1% of sales, compared with 42.7% for TRs. By 2012, NTRs will have 43.8% of food and consumable sales, while TRs will slip to second place, at 41.3%.

In 2005, nontraditional retailers have a 32% share in the Central regions and 41% share in the South. NTR marketshare for food is 24% in the East and 34% in the West.

While Hauptman said traditional retailers will use technology to help them cater to their best customers, I think Wal-Mart will continue to apply price pressure to traditional retailers by reinforcing their supercenter market presence with the more conventional Neighborhood Markets.

It's a long tough battle for traditional retailers, and even more so when experts are already declaring Wal-Mart and other NTRs will be the eventual winners.