Are Younger Cohorts Demanding Less Fresh Vegetables?

Gary Lucier of the USDA ERS passes on this report (posted to discussion group) about fresh vegetable consumption by the younger generation compared to older consumers. This report emphasizes that incorporating fresh vegetables in foodservice outlets will become increasingly important for the simple reason that young consumers are consuming less fresh vegetables at home. If those same consumers don't eat more fresh vegetables at foodservice locations, then fresh vegetable consumption is set up for a long term slide. From the study by Hayden Stewart and Noel Blisard in the Journal of Agricultural Economics, "Implications and Conclusions."

Implications and Conclusions
Health-oriented government agencies, including the USDA and the DHHS, along with social marketers outside of government are working to promote vegetable consumption. Because of the importance of vegetable consumption to 58 Review of Agricultural Economics government health programs, researchers have investigated the determinants of a household’s demand for vegetables and projected how demand may change in the future. However, by looking at a single cross section of households, these studies are unable to identify cohort effects. Such effects can be identified by decomposing demand into age, time, and cohort effects along with traditional price, income, and demographic effects. Although other demographic changes in the population may be increasing the demand for vegetables, as argued by Lin et al., for example, we find that younger cohorts are spending less money on fresh vegetables for at-home consumption than older cohorts do, all else constant. Spending less money on fresh vegetables at the supermarket implies these households are buying a smaller quantity of fresh vegetables, a narrower mix of fresh vegetables that excludes more expensive foods, or both. As noted in the introduction to this article, USDA and DHHS are concerned with promoting the consumption of both a sufficient quantity and varied mix of vegetables. As younger cohorts replace older cohorts, all else equal, we expect Americans to spend less money on fresh vegetables for at-home consumption. The growing popularity of restaurant foods and convenience foods are among the possible explanations for this cohort effect. If younger generations are less apt to cook from scratch, they will need to buy fewer fresh vegetables, as many recipes call for fresh vegetables. By cooking less, members of younger generations may also be exposed to only a narrower variety of fresh vegetables and, perhaps, purchase less of any items for which demand only increases after some exposure. The dietary implications of the cohort effect depend on the extent to which Americans offset any decrease in at-home fresh vegetable consumption with increases in the consumption of vegetables contained in, say, restaurant foods. However, Guthrie et al. note that eating away from home is also associated with consuming less of most types of vegetables other than potatoes, lettuce, and tomatoes. Moreover, fried potatoes alone account for 35% of away-from-home vegetable consumption. By contrast, about 80% of fresh-market spinach is purchased at retail and consumed at home, while 91% of processed spinach is consumed at
home (Lucier, Allshouse, Lin).6 To minimize the impact of the cohort effect on diet quality, social marketers might pay more attention to the away-from-home market. Traditionally, 5 A Day has concentrated its social marketing message on at-home foods and, in particular, the supermarket produce aisle. However, they have recently been working to get more vegetables onto restaurants’ menus and, in 2006, completed a review of obstacles to vegetable consumption at restaurants (Glanz et al.). Current efforts by social marketers and food retailers may also work to reverse the cohort effect identified in this study and increase the at-home demand for fresh vegetables. As noted earlier, Kaufman et al. report that supermarkets are expanding their produce aisles to increase the number of foods available. Additional foods include convenient, ready-to-eat fresh vegetables, such as bagged baby carrots, salads, and broccoli florets, which may better appeal to members of younger generations not accustomed to cooking from scratch than fresh vegetables in their natural form. Social marketing organizations, including the 5 A Day National Partnership, continue to raise the profile of at-home vegetable consumption as well. As noted above, 5 A Day has long concentrated its social marketing message on the supermarket produce aisle. For example, the Partnership’s logo can be found on many fresh vegetables. This message may affect the behavior of younger generations. To date, it is not clear if expanded produce aisles and the efforts of social marketers will undo the cohort effect and thereby sustain the growth of at-home vegetable consumption, all else constant. Existing research shows that growth in at-home vegetable consumption is being supported in part by trends in income and education, but the importance of the cohort effect can only increase with time. Younger cohorts will replace older ones. The current models do not suggest that these younger cohorts will demand fresh vegetables for at-home consumption as much as their older counterparts now do. Social marketers as well as supermarket chains might target these younger cohorts for nutritional education and special advertising.