In the year 2022

What will the world look like in 2022? Probably quite a bit like today, considering the fact that 1994 wasn't all that much different than today. Smaller cellphone and faster computers, but what else could be new? Fast forward 14 years and try to imagine what will be - flatter TVs, sleeker cars, and oh yes, smaller cellphones and faster computers.

This 64 page pdf report - also on tap for analysis at the FMI Sustainability Summit in June - speaks to four possible scenarios for retailers in the year 2022. Called "Retail Futures: scenarios for the future of UK retail and sustainable development" the report from Forum for the Future was underwritten by Tesco and Unilever.

The paper gives four possible scenarios for retail development in 2022. (Sounds ominously close to Zager and Evans 1969 pop standard "In the year 2525") From the report:

First scenario: My Way:

This is an individualistic society, in which the internet and other technologies are held in high regard, and consumers are demanding and unpredictable. Local government is stronger and central government weaker. In general, there is an atmosphere of optimism, even in the face of a changing climate and a resource-constrained world, though society is deeply divided between haves and have-nots. This is a dynamic economy, characterised by a high level of ntrepreneurial activity, forcing large, established companies to innovate constantly to maintain their share of the pie. There is more community-based trade – even between communities in different parts of the world – sometimes bypassing traditional retail supply chains. Brands are less powerful, and traditional advertising less effective. Local communities in the UK are more environmentally, socially and economically sustainable, but less attention is paid to the wider impacts of retail beyond the UK.


Second Scenario: Sell it to me

The UK’s economy is buoyant and its people are confident. They are happy for big business to play a lead role in meeting their needs and expectations, rather than take personal responsibility for doing so. They expect businesses to invest in the centralised infrastructure required to solve environmental and other problems, and don’t feel a duty to change their ‘pleasure seeking’ lifestyles in order to do so. Consumers are spending heavily with trusted brands, but have high expectations for the best in personalised products and entertainment. They expect shopping to be a pleasure, not a chore. They trust business with large amounts of their personal information. Environmental and social concerns are mainstream, up there with health or effective public services. There is confidence in international institutions to help solve the world’s problems. Income inequalities remain high. Combined with strong consumer-based affiliations, this leaves geographical social cohesion relatively weak.


Third scenario: From me to you

The economy is rather subdued and uncertain, and fear about climate change and severe weather events has increased. Most people don’t feel a great sense of connection to large companies or government. The wider public realm is increasingly neglected and there is a preference for home-grown solutions, which are perceived as better, cheaper and more efficient. The ‘wellbeing’ agenda dominates public and policy discourse. The personal debt crisis persists. Younger people tend to accumulate large amounts of debt at an early age, while 50- and 60-somethings are facing the prospect of elderly life without a decent pension. This means less disposable income, and consequently a contraction in the retail sector. ‘Grow your-own’ produce and urban farming have both undergone a surge in popularity, as have peer-to-peer services for swapping and selling goods. People often club together to buy collectively using the internet as a tool to deliver co-operative buying power. Co-operatives are on the rise, offline and online.

Fourth scenario: I'm in your hands


Consumer confidence is low, and people look to government and large businesses for security and solutions. Business focuses on providing low cost options, achieving efficiencies of scale, bundled products and services, long-term tie-ins, hire purchase arrangements and conservative, reassuring options. Paternalistic, trusted brands have survived and prospered. It’s a more structured, centralised and supervised existence. There’s more surveillance and more CCTV, which is generally welcomed as being in the public interest. Environmental behaviour change is achieved largely through sweeping regulation. Patio heaters and other undesirables have simply been banned. Some pressure groups object to what they call a threat to civil liberty, but they lack credibility in the mainstream and get little favourable media coverage. This is a more egalitarian society, with a smaller gap between rich and poor. There is a strong sense of community, a feeling of affinity with nation and a more established politics of consensus.


TK; From where I sit now, I would place the future as a combination of #1 (My way) and #3 (From me to you). While the #2 scenario may be the wish of retailers (Consumers trust business with large amounts of their personal information!), I think people may be less trusting of bigger institutions than might be assumed.