Immigration - reverse flow

You may have seen the headlines about the report from the Center for Immigration Studies, called Homeward bound: recent immigration enforcement and the decline in the illegal alien population
Here are some highlights from the report;

Among the findings:

• Our best estimate is that the illegal immigrant population has declined by 11 percent through May 2008 after hitting a peak in August 2007.
• The implied decline in the illegal population is 1.3 million since last summer, from 12.5 million to 11.2 million today.
• The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least seven times larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving the country on their own.
• One indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for the decline is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be affected; the legal immigrant population continues to grow.
• Another indication enforcement is causing the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in their unemployment rate.
• The importance of enforcement is also suggested by the fact that the current decline is already significantly larger than the decline during the last recession, and officially the country has not yet entered a recession.
• While the decline began before unemployment rose, the evidence indicates that unemployment has increased among illegal immigrants, so the economic slow-down is likely to be at least partly responsible for the decline in the number of illegal immigrants.
• There is good evidence that the illegal population grew last summer while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost immediately.
• If the decline were sustained, it would reduce the illegal population by one-half in the next five years.

Here is the rest of the story, from the Agriculture Coalition for Immigration Reform:


“IMMIGRATION ATTRITION THROUGH ENFORCEMENT” – A DISASTER IN SOLUTION’S CLOTHING


Today, the immigration-restrictionist Center for Immigration Studies will unveil a report that contends that the strategy of “attrition through enforcement” is working. The group suggests that 1.3 million unauthorized immigrants have self-deported, and argues that tougher enforcement is working. The claim itself is dubious; more importantly, our nation’s leaders mustn’t lose sight of the true impact of an enforcement-only strategy: if it succeeds, America will lose much of her ability to feed her people.

Are unauthorized immigrants leaving the country? Undoubtedly, the slowing economy is causing shifts in employment patterns. However, such shifts don’t necessarily mean “self-deportation”. Indeed, many agricultural employers across the country report that some experienced workers who left agriculture over the last several years to work inconstruction or other sectors have returned as those sectors (e.g., homebuilding) have shed jobs. Yet, this temporary shift does not solve the growing agricultural labor crisis.


In 2006 and 2007, many producers reported developing labor shortages. In the more serious cases, catastrophic losses resulted – at least one quarter of the pear crop in northern California was lost in 2006; in 2007 one million pounds of asparagus in one western Michigan county went to rot and a North Carolina pickle processor that had to import cucumbers from India when a local supplier scaled back over fears of too few harvest workers.


In 2008, mounting evidence shows that more farmers are making management decisions to plant less, switch to mechanized and subsidized row crops rather than high value fruits and vegetables, and even move production outside the U.S.

As CIS attempts to paint a picture that self-deportation is happening, and offers a solution to fixing America’s broken immigration system, the truly important question is this: if enforcement could actually succeed at purging the American workforce of unauthorized immigrants, what would be the result? In agriculture, the answer is clear. Much of our food production could not be sustained.


The fresh fruit, vegetable, and dairy sectors would be hit the hardest. A majority of the farmworkers planting, harvesting, and tending fruits, vegetables, dairy cows, and other livestock in the U.S. are unauthorized.


In Texas, a recent survey conducted by Texas A&M University reported that 77 percent of grower respondents had taken steps to actively downsize their businesses.

More than one quarter of these American farmers had moved some of their production out of the U.S.

One major melon and onion grower in Pecos County, producing for 20 years on 2200 acres with a $2 million payroll and an additional $2.6 million in economic activity generated in the community, called it quits this year, because of labor.

The largest tomato grower in the northeastern U.S. announcedbefore the planting season started that he could no longer risk producing tomatoes in Pennsylvania due to the lack of legally authorized harvest labor.

A more recent survey of a select group of vegetable producers in California reveals that 80,000 acres of high-value vegetable production have been relocated to Mexico.

The facts are stark. “Attrition through enforcement” means attrition of the American economy. It means job attrition. It means attrition of our nation’s ability to produce our own wholesome and abundant food. It means relying on the world to feed us. “Attrition through enforcement” is no solution. It is a hungry wolf in sheep’s clothing. True solutions are within reach, if Congress musters the courage and the wisdom to act. For agriculture, Senator Dianne Feinstein’s Emergency Agriculture Relief Act would provide temporary stability until Congress is able to revisit the issue of full and wise reform of our broken immigration system.


More news coverage:

Report about dwindling information sparks debate