A Parallel 'What-If' Universe

While it's an admirable campaign for the Western Growers Association (www.wga.com) to be calling for a Congressional committee to investigate finding federal funds to compensate growers for their massive losses during the FDA witch hunt, they may be biting off more than they can chew.

At least they're trying, though. I don't see the 'commingled' (isn't that a nice catchword now?) United/Produce Marketing Association doing much if anything to pressure Washington to at least consider the issue, when it appears they have ample political connections to do so.

But back to WGA's efforts. The question begs, where does one draw the line as far as the parameters & timeframe in quantifying a loss? Absolutely, the Palmetto/Ruskin (FL) shippers, the ones with unsold loads in their packinghouses, more in transit, and even more at destination when the initial CDC/FDA reports were released on June 6-7, deserve the first restitution if offered. They're ground zero from that standpoint.

Let's creep a few days forward, then. By the end of the next week, the media blast furnace was cranking, the FDA was chasing shadows, and the new deals in Charleston (SC), Quincy (FL) & Arkansas were picking & packing to a stagnant market. Not declining. Not falling. Morto. No movement whatsoever, to the point that the AgPlus Network, in their National Tomato Review, couldn't even peg an F.O.B. market for a day or two because of lack of trading.

Arguments will be made that these shippers, as well as the central San Joaquin Valley (CA) boys that began the following week, were hurt badly as well because their respective deals opened up in the pricing doldrums, where they remain to date. And they could be right in their claims.

Proving it, however, could be a dicey proposition, especially with the introduction of the ever-popular 'what if'. An example would be, what if...the flow of movement was not disrupted by this advisory, and it was business as usual? Of course, the market would have been better, but by how much? A couple bucks per package? Three or four? Who knows...

On the other hand, how many Palmetto/Ruskin sheds would have kept on packing, right on top of South Carolina & Quincy? We did have a $14-16.00 FOB market on our hands, and no grower in his right mind likes to leave valuable product in the field. The only offsetting factor would have been weather, the annual daily afternoon rains in the June Tampa heat that traditionally end a nearly-finished crop.

All in all, though, I give the WGA an 'A' for their efforts.

Later,

Jay