Fruit and Tree nut outlook - USDA ERS

Here is the link to the USDA ERS Fruit and tree nut outlook report of Nov. 25. Some highlights:

Tangerine production is also expected to be down in 2008/09 from the previous season. Florida, traditionally the major tangerine producer in the United States, is forecast to have a smaller crop, but California’s crop is expected to be larger. For the first time, California’s tangerine production will exceed Florida’s production, as California growers have increased the area and trees planted to various tangerine varieties, which are now coming into full, commercial production.

Later....


In California over the past several years, growers have been planting more acreage to various tangerine varieties as they shift production away from less profitable citrus fruit. Like the lemon trees in California, the tangerine trees were damaged by the 2007 freeze, affecting crop size. This season, the damaged trees have shown signs of recovering with an increase in the number of fruit per tree. This, along with new acreage coming into production, account for the record high crop forecast for the season. Tangerine season is from October 1 through May 1 for Florida and November 1 to May 15 for California. With the new-season crop just getting underway in Florida, grower prices for its fresh tangerines averaged $7.65 per 95-lb box (equivalent ontree) in October, considerably below the October average for the past three seasons, when prices ranged from $16.00 per box in 2007 to $18.10 per box in 2005. The bigger early variety orange crop is likely to have been a major factor in the lower price, especially since the fruit sizes were reported to be above average for the Fallglo, usually a positive factor on prices. Prices are likely to continue low as the
season progresses and the large tangerine supplies out of California enter the market.


Later...

Grower prices for fresh grapes fell 15 percent between this September and October and 25 percent this October over October 2007. The bigger grape crop this season has helped create big supplies in cold storage, likely contributing to the lower prices. Grape growers are likely to continue to face lower prices in November as demand for the California crop declines and new-season Chilean grapes begin entering the U.S. market.



In Florida, only 978,000 tons of grapefruit are expected to be produced this season, the smallest crop since the hurricane-damaged crops in 2004/05 and 2005/06. If realized, this would be the smallest crop since 1944/45, the two hurricane years excluded. Colored grapefruit—those with pink or red flesh—account for 70 percent of the crop, with the remainder being white flesh varieties. The number of grapefruit trees in Florida has been declining since the 1990s. There has been a rapid decline in the number of white grapefruit trees since the late 1990s as demand, especially in the domestic market has fallen. The number of colored variety trees began declining in mid-1990, in response to reduced demand for both fresh grapefruit and grapefruit juice. This season, the number of fruit per tree for white and colored grapefruit is below average, contributing to the lower number of 85-lb
boxes expected to be produced.