Australia Citrus Annual 2009 - USDA FAS

Australia Citrus Annual 2009 - USDA FAS

Total exports of oranges in 2010/11 are forecast at 130 TMT, unchanged from the estimate for the previous year. A historically high Australian dollar value for the foreseeable future is expected to constrain exports of Australian oranges despite a modest increase in production. Industry sources remain highly skeptical of prospects for increasing exports during 2010/11 while the Australian dollar remains at historically high levels. Exports to the US numbered 18 vessels for the 2009/10 citrus crop. At the time of writing this report, shipments for 2009/10 were down on the previous year due to poorer market conditions in the US, despite the improved quality of the Australian crop. Full-year exports for 2009/10 are expected to be equal to the previous year. Subdued demand and increased competition from other countries exporting to the US have created more difficult conditions. Countries such as Chile and Peru are reportedly undercutting Australian citrus prices by a significant margin.

Planted Area Post has revised area planted to oranges downwards sharply across the series, in line with recently released industry figures for 2008/09. The last time such figures were released was for 2003/04. Total area planted to oranges for 2010/11 is forecast at 19,600 hectares, down around two percent on the revised estimate from the previous year. Recently released industry figures placed area planted to oranges for 2008/09 at 20,351 hectares, down sharply on the 27,000 hectares previously reported by post. Industry sources believe planted area is falling by roughly two percent a year over the longer term as the industry continues to restructure. Post has revised its area for 2008/09 in line with industry reports and trended its estimates and forecasts downwards in line with the longer term trend. Industry statistics show that between 2003/04 and 2008/09 the Australian citrus industry has lost around 13 percent of its growers, eight percent of its total planted area and four percent of its trees. Industry rationalization and severe drought are believed responsible for this decline. During this time the average property size increased from 13.1 hectares (32.4 acres) to 14.1 hectares (34.8 acres) nationally. Going forward, industry sources remain upbeat about the industry’s fortunes despite the fall in planted area with “non bearing” plantings reported at around 14 percent of total planting. This figure indicates that the remaining industry continues to make significant investments in new plantings.

Oranges Total orange production for 2010/11 is forecast at 440 TMT, up slightly on estimated production from the previous year. Industry sources expect Navel production to be up slightly while Valencia production is expected to remain largely unchanged. This forecast relies on a modest improvement in production conditions as a return to more normal weather conditions is expected to see production increase. Post forecast is largely consistent with long term trends showing a modest increase in Navel production over the longer term while Valencia production has continued to decline steadily. Industry sources have suggested that recent historically high retail prices for fresh orange juice will likely limit the decline in Valencia production during the forecast year.

Post has revised production of oranges for 2009/10 downwards significantly to 430 TMT in line with recently released industry figures. Continued dry conditions are expected to keep production below levels previously forecast by post. According to industry figures, this production figure accounts for around 233 TMT of Navel productions and 197 TMT of Valencias.

Exports Oranges Total exports of oranges in 2010/11 are forecast at 130 TMT, unchanged from the estimate for the previous year. A historically high Australian dollar value for the foreseeable future is expected to constrain exports of Australian oranges despite a modest increase in production. Industry sources remain highly skeptical of prospects for increasing exports during 2010/11 while the Australian dollar remains at historically high levels. Exports to the US numbered 18 vessels for the 2009/10 citrus crop. At the time of writing this report, shipments for 2009/10 were down on the previous year due to poorer market conditions in the US, despite the improved quality of the Australian crop. Full-year exports for 2009/10 are expected to be equal to the previous year. Subdued demand and increased competition from other countries exporting to the US have created more difficult conditions. Countries such as Chile and Peru are reportedly undercutting Australian citrus prices by a significant margin.