USDA Fruit OUtlook on strawberries

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/FTS/2010/Mar03/FTS341.pdf
Back in January, NASS released this year’s strawberry area forecast for California,Florida, and Oregon—the top three strawberry-producing States in the country.Total strawberry area for 2010 was forecast to decline by 1,500 acres in Californiaand by 100 acres in Oregon. Production area in Florida, on the other hand, wasforecast to increase by 100 acres. Mostly influenced by fewer acres in California,combined harvested area for the three States is forecast to be down by 1,300 acresthis year, totaling 48,200 acres. Both California and Florida were forecast toharvest this season’s entire planted area while 300 acres in Oregon will not beharvested. With the forecast decline in harvested acreage and based on 3-yearaverage yields per acre, ERS projects a potential drop in U.S. strawberry productionof 6 to 7 percent from a year ago. Additional weather problems that may ariseduring the remaining growing and harvesting period could further reduce theprojected production for this year. On the flip side, the possibility of significantincreases in yields, should excellent weather conditions prevail this spring andsummer, could bring about moderation to the currently projected productiondecline for 2010.California remains the dominant strawberry-producing State in the country,representing over 80 percent of total harvested area and close to 90 percent of totalvolume produced. Strawberry area in California has expanded over the last 10years (declining only in 2001, 2007, and likely in 2010) in response to increasingconsumer demand and higher grower prices, especially in the fresh fruit side of themarket. U.S. strawberry production for fresh use increased an average 8 percentannually year-after-year since 2002, except in 2008, at the same time that freshstrawberry imports into the country also continued to climb (table 14). Thepresence of imports in this market is year round, but most of the shipments coincidewith the domestic shipping season. Hence, the recent growth in imports, averaging16 percent annually in the past 5 years, signals continued strong demand to fill infor supply needs in the domestic market, especially with robust exports taking uparound 12 percent of the fresh-market crop. U.S. fresh strawberry exports set newrecord-highs each year since 2005, reaching 272 million pounds in 2009. Canadareceived 85 percent of the total export volume in 2009 and exports to the countryincreased by 9 percent. Though exports fell significantly to Mexico and the UnitedKingdom, both major markets for the industry, exports were strong to East Asia,most particularly to Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and to the Middle East.Strawberries rank as the fifth most popular fresh-market fruit in the United States,following bananas, apples, oranges, and grapes, and they top the list for berries.Domestic fresh strawberry demand has trended upwards with average annualconsumption estimated at 6.0 pounds per person from 2005-09, almost double theaverage during the early 1990s. Per capita consumption rose consecutively over thelast 8 years, reaching an estimated 7 pounds per person for the very first time in2009. The frozen strawberry market serves more as a residual market forstrawberries, given the higher returns in the fresh market. Demand for frozen
strawberries has remained fairly steady over the past decade, with annualconsumption averaging between 1 and 2 pounds per person.In California, there are five major strawberry growing districts—OrangeCounty/San Diego, Oxnard, and Santa Maria in the south and Watsonville/Salinasand San Joaquin in the north. There are also two strawberry planting seasons inCalifornia. Acreage planted in the fall produces for the winter, spring, and summerstrawberry market, and makes up around 90 percent of California’s total strawberryarea. Fall supplies come from plantings done during the summer. The smallerstrawberry area forecast for California in 2010 stems from the fewer acres plantedlast fall in almost all of the State’s strawberry-growing districts, except in Oxnard,which is the second-largest producing district in the State. According to theCalifornia Strawberry 2010 Acreage Survey released by the California StrawberryCommission, strawberry acreage planted in the fall decreased by 6 percent from theprevious year while acreage for this summer is projected to increase almost 17percent from last summer. Oxnard and Santa Maria growing districts will accountfor all of the acreage this summer.Strawberry varieties developed by the University of California continue to representa majority of California’s strawberry area. However, proprietary varieties arecapturing a growing share of the State’s strawberry acreage, with expandingpresence in Oxnard, Watsonville-Salinas, and Santa Maria districts (fig. 4). Overthe past 10 years, acreage planted to proprietary varieties rose from an average of30 percent from 2001-03 to around 39 percent from 2007-09.
The acreage survey indicated acreage planted to UC varieties is projected to declineby 10 percent from a year ago for a total of 22,464 acres while acreage planted toproprietary varieties is projected to increase 5 percent to 14,479 acres, representing39 percent of the State’s total acreage. Among UC developed strawberry varieties,Albion continues to be the most predominantly planted, with more than half of totalacreage (excluding those planted with proprietary varieties). Other prominent UCvarieties include Ventana and Camino Real, varieties that became available for thefirst time in 2002. Declines in acreage are expected for these three major UCvarieties in 2010. Acreage growth is expected for the San Andreas variety, a morerecent UC variety that has similar production patterns to Albion but exhibits moresuperior qualities, planted primarily in the Oxnard district but also has acreage inSanta Maria, Watsonville/Salinas, and Orange and San Diego County growingdistricts. Very limited acreage was first reported for this variety in 2008,representing only a tiny fraction of the State’s total strawberry area. It is a very newvariety in that licensing and transfer outside of California only started in January2010. Acreage planted to the San Andreas variety in 2009 rose sharply, capturing 3percent of total acreage and for 2010; this share is expected to increase to 7 percent.