Thursday, November 3, 2016

Trump Down but Not Out

At now 66 cents (down from 81 cents on Oct 27), traders are anticipating Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump on November 8. According to the PredictIt Election Map, Clinton is ex-pected to receive 278 electoral votes. Trump is expected to receive 215, with 45 remaining as a toss-up. In North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Clinton has a slight advantage, at 54 cents. In Florida, odds slightly favor Trump to win the 29 electoral votes, at 53 cents. In addition to Flor-ida, one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District of Maine is likely to go to Trump, at 54 cents. Should Trump take all three states, he would still need to snag nine electoral votes from Clin-ton’s column. Clinton has the loosest grip on New Hampshire (65 cents), Nevada (66 cents), Colorado (68 cents) and Pennsylvania (71 cents). New Hampshire went red in the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore but has remained a Democratic staple since. Nevada’s electoral votes went to Bush against both Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, but voted for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. The same can be said of Colorado. However, unlike Nevada, which went blue in both 1992 and 1996, the Centennial State went to Bill Clinton in 1992 but did not favor him for re-election in 1996. The last time Pennsylvania awarded its electors to a Republican was in 1988 when George H.W. Bush sought his first term.

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