Export Growth

This USDA report on the export outlook has some encouraging words for horticultural exports, but primarily price increases in grain commodities have sparked higher estimates.
From the USDA:

Fiscal 2008 agricultural exports are forecast at a record $91 billion, up $7.5 billion from August and $9.1 billion above 2007. This outlook is largely supported by continued strong demand, tight markets and sharply higher prices for grains and oilseeds, and a weaker dollar. While high-value product exports are rising, bulk commodities account for three-quarters of the year-to-year increase in agricultural export value, with about one-quarter of that increase from volume gains.

Fresh fruits and vegetable exports are forecast at a record $4.9 billion in fiscal 2008. Citrus is up slightly from last year to $690 million. An improved outlook for oranges is largely offset by reduced prospects for grapefruit and lemons. California’s orange crop is projected to increase 29 percent over last year’s crop, to 2 million tons. Grapefruit production is expected to fall 5 percent, and fruit sizes should be smaller due to lack of rain. Continued strong demand for apples is expected to hold values high and more than offset any downward pressure on grape prices stemming from a larger harvest. Processed fruit and vegetables are forecast at a record $4.5 billion. Fruit juices are forecast at $1 billion, or equal to last year; Florida's orange crop should recover (up 30 percent in 2007/08), but unit values should decline with increased supply. Strong dried fruit exports to Europe are expected, and frozen vegetable sales should rise to major markets. Tree nuts are forecast at a record $3 billion. A record large almond crop is expected, while the walnut crop should be smaller. Record almond crops in 2006 and 2007 pressured prices lower. In 2007 export value fell despite an increase in volume. A moderate increase is expected in 2008. Sugar and tropical products are forecast at $3.7 billion, up $250 million from last year. Exports of sugar and high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) were $1.5 billion in 2007. Record-high prices for HFCS last year were due to demand for ethanol and high corn prices. This year, prices should moderate but shipments are expected to increase, particularly to Mexico.