Election Watch

It is Super Tuesday, and I have a link from this site to a great election-watching Web resource, Election 2008.

Here are the latest tidbits from the site:

Barring very unforeseen developments, the Democratic race will go on well beyond today and if Mitt Romney can pull off an upset in California, it might go on for the Republicans, too. The rules are a bit complicated since in some states it is winner-take-all statewide, in others it is winner-take-all per congressional district, and in still others it is strictly proportional to the vote. In most cases, the PLEOs, superdelegates, unpledged delegates, etc. are allocated by yet other rules.

So, what's going on? Obama is definitely surging everywhere, but whether this will be enough to overcome Clinton's lead remains to be seen. Romney is also moving up in California, but it might be too little too late. Here are some things to watch for. First, California is the big enchilada. The GOP primary is winner-take-all per congressional district. A big win here and someone is on the road to the nomination. The Democratic primary is proportional by congressional district. It is likely that the number of delegates won by Clinton and Obama will be close, but the psychological factor of "winning California" is huge.

Missouri is another state to watch. It is a genuine bellwether, picking the winner in nearly every presidential election since WWII. Also important is the turnout there. If one party has a massive turnout and the other does not, that says something about what might happen in November. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) has been campaigning her heart out for Obama this week, which may help him with women there.

Watch the South. Voters go to the polls in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas today. How do Obama and Clinton play there? Obama will probably get most of the black vote in those states. The South is also of critical important to the Republicans--it is their base. Watch McCain's percentage there. If he can barely muster 35% in the South, that doesn't bode well for November if he is the nominee. Many southern conservatives may stay home on election day. Actually, McCain has achieved a lifetime rating of 82% from the American Conservative Union (vs. an 8% rating for Obama and a 9% rating for Clinton). But some people accept nothing less than perfection.