Naive money and the coming bust

Is there a commodity bubble? Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group links to this video from Barron's about analysis of the naive money involved in commodities futures speculation and the coming day of reckoning.

Here is the Barron's story: "Commodities: Who's behind the boom?"
From the story:

Here's the problem: The speculators' bullishness may be way overdone, in the process lifting prices far above fair value. If the speculators were to follow the commercial players -- the farmers, the food processors, the energy producers and others who trade daily in the physical commodities -- they'd be heading for the exits. For right now, the commercial players are betting on price declines more heavily than ever before, says independent analyst Steve Briese.

For example, in the 17 commodities that make up the Continuous Commodity Index, net short positions by the commercials have been running more than 30% higher than their previous net-short record, in March 2004.