Dec. 21 - Credit cards and supermarkets: what Luis found

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group is one of the greatest resource people you will run across, an "answer man" among answer men. Recently I asked the group if anyone had an idea of how much credit card sales account for out of total supermarket sales. I wondered if the credit crunch and declining credit limits could also impact supermarket sales. Luis ran down the answer and more. Luis, Big Apple and others are great resources for the fresh produce trade, and we could use your help too. Join today.

Here is what Luis found:

In 2006, 29% of the dollar volume of payments at grocery stores were made with a credit card and 33% with a debit/ATM card. One can also compare payment methods at three different types of restaurants. So, credit may be squeezed for a few but the majority is likely to have to
deal with higher fees (transaction, what-not etc.) and higher interest rates as banks shy away from risk and hunt for revenue.

More details from this FRB Boston report (with some rounding error).
http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/eprg/conferences/payments2006/papers/...

Page 13
Payment Method Share of Dollar Volume: 2006
Grocery Stores
Cash: 21%
Check: 18%
Debit/ATM card: 33%

Credit Card: (25+3+1)= 29%

Page 15.
Payment Method Share of Dollar Volume: 2006
High Priced Restaurants
Cash: 20%
Check: 3%
Debit/ATM Card 12%

Credit Card: (59+5+1) = 65%

Page 16.
Payment Method Share of Dollar Volume: 2006
Mid-Priced Restaurants
Cash: 36%
Check: 2%
Debit/ATM Card 23%

Credit Card: (36+2+1) = 39%

Page 16.
Payment Method Share of Dollar Volume: 2006
Quick Service Restaurants
Cash: 66%
Check: 3%
Debit/ATM Card 17%
Credit card: (12+1+0) = 13%

New threads at FPIDG

Big Apple and Luis have been active again on the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group overnight.Here are some threads they just put up. Come join the party if you are not a member.

Agriprocessors' big faces long stretch for harboring illegal - Big Apple
With the arrest of the former chief executive, Sholom Rubashkin, federal authorities extended their criminal prosecution to the highest level of management at the plant.

Could a City Prohibit Selling Food to an Illegal Alien? - Luis

Attorney Omar C. Jadwat of the ACLU's Immigrants' Rights Project in New York said Munley had correctly concluded that Hazleton's ordinance would interfere with the enforcement scheme chosen by Congress which calls for the strictest enforcement only at the borders. "It's not up to the states to choose an iron fist where Congress has chosen a velvet glove," Jadwat said.

Merced man cracks pistachio problem - Luis

His young daughter, Anahita, helped him discover it when they were trying to dry some of the pistachios that Foroutan grows. The nuts were raw and she thought they should put them in the microwave. When they came out, the shells had opened on their own and Foroutan had discovered a new way to crack nuts. He and his daughter patented the
process.

Grocery stores/food budgets are shrinking - Luis

Traceability coverage

I've been frustrated in finding the complete record of testimony provided at the Oct. 16 FDA traceability hearing, as the FDA site has not been updated to reflect the testimony, and the presentations have not been posted on any federal docket. Thanks to Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group for his post this morning on the "FDA wish list" for produce traceability. Note that the FDA doesn't believe the Bioterrorism Act is good enough; David Acheson has given up on winning total agreement on what should be done and instead is invoking the 80-20 rule. Once 80 percent of stakeholders agree, worry about the other 20 percent later. From InsideHealth Policy and the post:

The Bioterrorism Act falls short of giving FDA the power it needs to trace foodborne outbreaks back to the source, leaving the agency to address challenges that the legislation wasn't designed to address, an FDA official said Thursday (Oct. 16).

"The Bioterrorism Act is certainly a significant improvement over what we had in the past; basically we didn't have any requirements," food center Emergency Coordinator Sherri McGarry said at a public meeting in College Park, MD. But she said challenges remain.

For example, McGarry said current invoicing procedures make it difficult to track products moving in and out of warehouses, and urged industry to help find a solution.

She noted that produce arriving at a warehouse is noted on invoices, and within those invoices there are multiple line items for different types of produce, each with its own code. Then when the produce leaves the warehouse, it often is given a different code.

McGarry referred to this situation as a lack of "connectivity."

FDA doesn't want all types of produce to be identified the same way because that would make it impossible to tell them apart. But McGarry said it would be nice if, within invoices, items coming into a warehouse could be matched with items leaving the warehouse.

Read more of FDA's comments at the Discussion Group...

Third party certification - a power grab by FDA?

What's the verdict on the FDA's guidance on third party certification? Does it make sense to use third parties to help shoulder some of the FDA's responsibility to oversee food safety? Is the FDA trying to gain access to data that it would not have otherwise?

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group posts a link to some dissent about the FDA's Guidance.

Meanwhile, here is a comment below on the guidance from NSF that points to some of the concern about how the FDA would encroach on relationships between private businesses and third party certification bodies:


A fine line must be drawn here, however, as many companies participate in third party certification programs with the understanding that the information they submit to certifiers, and the findings of the audit, are confidential to the company. However, if NSF discovers a safety issue related to a certified product, it will work with the company to inform appropriate regulatory agencies regarding the product, as well as specify appropriate corrective action.



Meanwhile, from the the comment on the guidance by the Produce Marketing Association, a relevant comment:

Authority to Examine and Gather Records and Other Information – The guidance currently would permit the “certification body and inspectors to examine records and other information relevant to the safety and security of the products for which certification is sought. This should include access to relevant records relating to the producing, manufacturing, processing, packing and holding of products for which certification is sought, including, but not limited to receiving preventative control plans and records, laboratory results, records regarding the upkeep and use of equipment, consumer complaint files and distribution records.”

These general attributes are common to all third-party audits currently used in the produce industry, but it does represent an interesting conundrum in that FDA currently does not have statutory authority to some of these categories of records when performing a routine inspection of a facility unless FDA finds clear evidence that a product is adulterated. Given this apparent conflict, does FDA have a legislative plan that specifically remedies this situation?

It would also be valuable for FDA to expand upon this section to point out more specifically which types of records the agency or an approved third party would want access to and how they will be used in determining the food safety status of the operation. For instance, if a third party should find a violation in a HACCP plan, e.g. in routine hourly readings of free chlorine levels in a vegetable processing wash system where the specified level of free chlorine is documented to be 3-7 parts per million (ppm), and the verification log shows the actual reading for the hour was 2 ppm, how will FDA react to that information? Currently when third-party auditors find an instance such as the example above, their focus is largely on the corrective actions taken by the producer and the verification of those actions. Will FDA work with approved third parties in the same manner, or will the agency view a single HACCP infraction as cause for regulatory action? Will FDA require certified third-party auditors to submit this type of information to the agency as a routine or only when or if that company comes under investigation?

Wal-Mart seeks retailer support of GFSI

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group posted this story that speaks of Wal-Mart's effort to seek retail support of the Global Food Safety Initiative. From that Supermarket News story:

In the wake of this year's high-profile food recalls, Wal- Mart Stores' Vice President of Food Safety Frank Yiannas called upon food retailers to join the retail giant and several other global retailers in embracing the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI), an effort to create and adopt uniform food safety standards. The hope is that more retailers and foodservice organizations are going to join us in this effort,” he said. “[GFSI] is our greatest opportunity to create a universal standard of safe food, and advance food safety and the quality of life for consumers around the world.”

TK: Questions remain how appropriate/adaptable the GFSI/SQF audit is for the produce growing community, particularly smaller operators. What is the GFSI? I found a powerpoint on the Web that covers the basics.

Marketside photos

Arizona based Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group legend Luis has posted a couple of pictures of Wal-Mart's Marketside store on the discussion group - yet another reason for you to join the group. Here is what Luis says in a recent post:


Store is located on a side arterial street with fairly good traffic, close to relative new suburbs and positioned on a corner facing two convenient stores, one of which features a gas station. An intriguing feature of the store is the old drive-thru left over from the drug store which Walmart is likely to use as a take out. This is a feature not found on Fresh & Easies (that I know of). Talk about convenience, the American way. Developing..


Also, Luis linked to some coverage from FT on the concept. From that piece:

The design of Wal-Mart’s new small format Marketside stores, which will open in the Phoenix, Arizona area in coming weeks, marks a dramatic break with the branding of the rest of Wal-Mart’s more than 3,400 low-cost US stores.

Pictures of one of the first four new 15,000 sq ft stores, which Wal-Mart says are part of a pilot, have appeared on the website of the city of Mesa, southeast of Phoenix.

Later....

The first four stores have been built in former drugstore sites. Wal-Mart has indicated that the pilot will involve up to ten stores. It has acquired at least two other sites in the Phoenix area where it is planning to build new stores from scratch.

The new Wal-Mart stores will be competing directly with Tesco’s new Fresh & Easy small format stores. Tesco has opened 20 stores in the Phoenix area in less than a year, with another 16 sites announced so far.

TK: Luis wryly observes that Marketside is no "Jackalope" or ficticious creature after all:

All this activity focused on the big and the small, makes one wonder if the traditional supermarket footprint and assortment model is in danger of extinction. Perhaps an exaggeration but for some time, there has been evidence that it is under pressure while as noted on previous posts, the real state crunch and business failures may have freed small commercial retail space (i.e. strip malls etc), like urban swiss cheese in some places. It is going to be interesting to see what WalMart's experiment looks like.}

TK: Yes, it appears the traditional supermarket is under a tremendous amount of pressure, from dollar stores, Aldi, convenience marts, club stores, supercenters and now concepts like Fresh & Easy and Marketside. In any event, consumers are frequenting alliterative channels in increasing numbers and the fresh produce trade must adjust.

Farm bill side by side and other ERS notes

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group first tagged this new release from the ERS, a side by side comparison of the farm bill of 2008 and the farm bill of 2002. Find the ERS link here.

Another ERS study that I don't think I've linked to before is found here. The title of the report is called "Phytosanitary regulation of the entry of fresh fruits and vegetables into the United States." Lots of data here about who can export what to the U.S. From the overview:

Increased trade in fresh fruits and vegetables provides U.S. consumers with a variety of benefits including the possibility of improved nutrition by making these products available year-round. Imports of these products are regulated by USDA's Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) to reduce the risk of inadvertent entry of pests and diseases that could harm agriculture, public health, navigation, irrigation, natural resources, or the environment.

This data product identifies which countries, under APHIS phytosanitary rules, are eligible to export to the United States the fresh fruits and vegetables that are most important in the American diet. Current data represent country eligiblility as of June 2008. Previous (2007) data represent eligibility as of February 2007. Data on the absolute and relative importance of these countries in international production and trade, individually and in aggregate, are also included. This data product supports the objectives of the Program for Research on the Economics of Invasive Species (PREISM) under which ERS funds and conducts research to improve the economic basis of decisionmaking concerning invasive species issues, policies, and programs.

Victim of their own success

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group first linked to this AP story reads "Food industry bitten by its lobbying success"


One of the worst outbreaks of foodborne illness in the U.S. is teaching the food industry the truth of the adage, "Be careful what you wish for because you might get it."
The industry pressured the Bush administration years ago to limit the paperwork companies would have to keep to help U.S. health investigators quickly trace produce that sickens consumers, according to interviews and government reports reviewed by The Associated Press.
The White House also killed a plan to require the industry to maintain electronic tracking records that could be reviewed easily during a crisis to search for an outbreak's source. Companies complained the proposals were too burdensome and costly, and warned they could disrupt the availability of consumers' favorite foods.
The apparent but unintended consequences of the lobbying success: a paper record-keeping system that has slowed investigators, with estimated business losses of $250 million. So far, nearly 1,300 people in 43 states, the District of Columbia and Canada have been sickened by salmonella since April.

Later....

The FDA official in charge of the current salmonella investigation, David Acheson, said the agency slowly is reviewing paper records to help trace tainted produce. But Acheson disputed arguments that an electronic records system would necessarily have helped investigators.

TK: One of the intriguing sidebars to the Congressional hearings upcoming will be the debate about traceability and what more needs to be done. Lawmakers will say the industry is "clamoring for regulation" but industry may not agree. Check this story for another report on traceability: "Tracing tomatoes from field to fork" From that AP story:

My impression is that before this tomato-pepper outbreak, the industry really didn't want traceback, because if they had a problem they didn't want it traced to a specific grower," said Michael Doyle, director of the Center for Food Safety at the University of Georgia. "Now, seeing that what can happen can shut down the whole industry, I would think it's to their advantage to enable traceback investigations to focus on the source."
Even if the government doesn't require tracing, some major retailers do.
"We like to get back to the dirt, or in the case of tomatoes, the hothouse," said Craig Wilson, assistant vice president for food safety and quality at Costco. Verifying the supply chain is a specification, just as freshness would be. Vendors are required to maintain records, which Costco audits at least annually.

Later in the story....

For Canadian cattle, FoodLogiQ's system works through a radio frequency ID tag put on every calf's ear at birth so its movements can be recorded. The system got its first emergency workout when mad cow disease was discovered in a Canadian cow in 2003, requiring traceback to the farm of origin before U.S. trade could resume, Kennedy said.
For produce, his company would assign an identifying tag to each case or pallet, rather than to an individual tomato or other item. It costs roughly 25 cents a tag, Kennedy said in a cell phone interview this week from a field belonging to Eastern Carolina Organics, a co-op implementing his system.
If the produce case is repacked into different boxes along the way to the grocery store or restaurant, the tag identifier would be added to the new container, much like drug companies today track their ingredients, Kennedy said.

Tomato compensation and searching for the jalapeno king

It is going to be tough to set a dollar amount on the damages incurred by the tomato industry as a result of the salmonella outbreak advisories. Factors such as acreage and weather conditions play into the level of shipments and the market price. One would assume that figures will be put forward in next week's Congressional hearings that attempt to estimate the cost. In fact, here is an AP video on the compensation issues can be found:






Further, here is a press release from Rep. Tim Mahoney of Florida about legislation he has already introduced to address the problem:

Following the Food & Drug Administration's (FDA) announcement that tomatoes were not the likely source of a recent salmonella outbreak, Congressman Tim Mahoney (FL-16) has introduced a bill, H.R. 6581, to compensate tomato growers and packers nationwide for their losses due to the salmonella scare, which according to the Florida Tomato Exchange's estimates could be close to $100 million.
Congressman Mahoney, who is Florida's only representative on the House Agriculture Committee, also called on the Committee to hold field hearings in his district to examine what reforms are needed to ensure food safety. The Agriculture Committee plans to schedule a hearing in mid-September.
"The FDA's warnings about tomatoes devastated the $1.3 billion tomato industry. Due to the timing of the salmonella outbreak, Florida was hit hard. We need to ensure that all impacted tomato growers and packers are compensated for their losses to protect domestic food production," said Congressman Mahoney. "With unfortunate events like this, Americans are becoming aware that food safety and national security are synonymous. We clearly need to examine and overhaul our food safety system to ensure that the food we grow and import is safe."
In April, the FDA issued a nationwide warning that tomatoes were a possible source of a salmonella outbreak that made 1,220 people ill in 42 states, the District of Columbia and Canada. After a long investigation, the FDA recently determined that fresh tomatoes now available in the domestic market are not associated with the current outbreak and the agency has rescinded its warning against eating certain types of red raw tomatoes.
The Mahoney Bill, which is also cosponsored by U.S. Representatives Allen Boyd, Adam Putnam, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Vern Buchanan, directs the Secretary of Agriculture to make payments to tomato growers and first handlers that were unable to market tomato crops as a result of the Food and Drug Administration's Public Health Advisory issued in June 2008 due to the salmonella outbreak. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will be responsible for issuing regulations and determining eligibility for compensation, as they have in other disaster programs.
"The tomato industry in our state has unfairly suffered enough," Rep. Wasserman Schultz (FL-20) said. "The FDA must reform their trace-back programs so that growers and consumers do not have to go through the same nightmare during future outbreaks."


TK: Don't expect smooth sailing for the bill. In this coverage of Mahoney's bill, the WSJ reported that consumer groups had some "pushback" on the issue.

Consumer advocates oppose the bill. Sarah Klein, a staff attorney at the Center for Science in the Public Interest, said the food-industry lobby over the years has weakened federal food-safety oversight, and consumers shouldn't foot the bill now. "We'd like to see the industry focusing on how to prevent these outbreaks for the future to protect consumers and their bottom line," she said.
Tom Stenzel, president of United Fresh Produce Association, said the fresh-produce industry has sought tougher FDA regulation of tomatoes and other items. In recent years, Florida tomato growers and California leafy-green growers pushed through tougher measures in their own states, including mandatory inspections and training.
But the industry disagrees on who should benefit from the bill. Mr. Mahoney said it covers farmers and shippers, which were hit the hardest by the FDA warning. Mr. Stenzel, said it also should cover those further up the supply chain, such as packers and repackers, who suffered damages, too.
It is uncertain whether the bill will pass Congress. There isn't similar legislation in the Senate, and there is little time for lawmakers to act before the November election. Last year, spinach growers unsuccessfully pushed a similar measure to compensate for losses after the government's 2006 recall of fresh spinach after an outbreak of E. coli.







Meanwhile, Luis provided this post at the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group, adding some perspective as to the size and scope of the jalapeno production and exports to the U.S.:



Exports, most of them to the United States, have risen between 10 and 15 percent every year over the last decade and now over 100,000 hectares (247,000 acres) of peppers are grown in Mexico, 80 percent of them jalapenos.
Dozens of varieties of chiles, some which provoke sweating and crying, have become a cooking trend in the United States. Food writer and spice expert Dave DeWitt describes the fad as "culinary bungee jumping."
"Very rarely do you ever hear someone say, 'I used to eat hot and spicy food but now I'm back to bland,'" said DeWitt, the author of over 30 books on chiles like "The Spicy Food Lover's Bible" and "The Chile Pepper Encyclopedia."
Inspectors are holding up truck loads of the some 100 tons of peppers crossing into the United States from Mexico every day, raising the risk of produce being left to rot before it reaches stores, Gochicoa said.

TK: Gary Lucier of the USDA Economic Research reports that imports of fresh chili peppers from Mexico during the first four months of the year - assumed to be mostly jalapenos - were up 25% compared with the same period a year ago. Shipments through the first four months of the year translated to about one pound of fresh chili peppers per person in the U.S.


Developing...I'm on the scout for a few shippers of fresh jalapenos for a market update...If there is a "jalapeno king," I will find him....

National Truck Rate Report - July 22

Truck rates fall for several shipping districts this week. As per usual, the summary of the National Truck Rate Report:


A shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: sweet potatoes from Eastern North Carolina. A slight shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: potatoes from Columbia Basin Washington. LAST REPORT was issued for potatoes from San Luis Valley Colorado, and melons from South Carolina. FIRST REPORT was issued for tomatoes from Central District California, pears from Sacramento & San Joaquin Valley California, potatoes from Delaware, melons from Delaware, Maryland and eastern shore Virginia, beans and cabbage from Western and Central Mexico All other districts reported an adequate supply of trucks.

GAP Mental Modeling

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group caught (Do you think you know GAPs or you only fooling yourself?) a recent notice in the Federal Register that's worth comment. It sounds as if the FDA is seeking to understand how growers comprehend Good Agricultural Practices. Or more precisely, why they don't; "There is evidence that growers have not fully implemented GAPs to reduce production risk, despite intensive GAPs training programs." From the Federal Register notice:


Federal agencies are required to publish notice in the Federal Register concerning each proposed collection of information and to allow 60 days for public comment in response to the notice. This notice solicits comments on the proposed study entitled ``Mental Models Study of Farmers' Understanding and Implementation of Good Agricultural Practices.''
Mental Models Study of Farmers' Understanding and Implementation of Good Agricultural Practices.

The proposed information collection will help FDA protect the public from foodborne illness by increasing the agency's understanding of how farmers and growers use Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) to address common risk factors in their operations and thereby minimize food safety hazards potentially associated with fresh produce. Fresh fruits and vegetables are those that are likely to be sold to consumers in an unprocessed or minimally processed (i.e., raw) form and that are reasonably likely to be consumed raw. Under section 903(b)(2) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (21 U.S.C. 393 (b)(2)), FDA is authorized to conduct research relating to foods and to conduct educational and public information programs relating to the safety of the Nation's food supply. Under Title 42 of the Public Health Service Act (1944), FDA has authority to act to protect the public health.
In 1998, FDA issued a guidance document entitled ``Guide to Minimize Microbial Food Safety Hazards for Fresh Fruits and Vegetables,'' available at http://www.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/prodguid.html. The guidance addresses microbial food safety hazards and good agricultural and good management practices common to the growing, harvesting, washing, sorting, packing, and transporting of most fruits and vegetables sold to consumers in an unprocessed or minimally processed (raw) form.
There is evidence that growers have not fully implemented the GAPs to reduce production risks, despite intensive GAPS training programs. FDA is planning to conduct a study to determine growers' decision- making processes with regard to understanding and implementing GAPs on the farm, to more fully understand the barriers and constraints associated with GAPs implementation.
The project will use ``mental modeling,'' a qualitative research method wherein the decision-making processes of a group of respondents (described below) concerning the implementation of GAPs on the farm are modeled and compared to a model based on expert knowledge and experience in the implementation of GAPs. The information will be collected via a telephone interview concerning the factors that influence the perceptions and motivations related to the implementation of GAPs. A comparison between expert and consumer models based on the collected information may identify ``consequential knowledge gaps'' that can be redressed through information campaigns designed by FDA.
Description of respondents:
Respondents will be farmers or growers, GAPs trainers, and retail buyer and/or grower association representatives.
The study will involve approximately 60 respondents, including 24 farmers or growers of fruits and vegetables, 24 GAPs trainers, and 12 retail buyer or grower association representatives. FDA will also conduct a pretest using 9 respondents.

Traceability and salmonella hearings loom large

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group notes that the anticipated traceability hearing in the House Agriculture Committee, subcommittee on Horticulture and Organic Agriculture has been scheduled for 1 pm on July 30 at the Longworth House Office Building.

The topic: To review legal and technological capacity for full traceability in fresh produce.


Meanwhile, the House Energy and Commerce Committee, subcommittee on oversight and investigations has scheduled a hearing July 31. From the House Web Site:


The Recent Salmonella Outbreak: Lessons Learned and Consequences to Industry and Public Health Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations
Hearing10:00 a.m. in room 2123 Rayburn House Office Building



On the Senate side, there is a hearing July 23 on childhood obesity. From the Senate Health Education Committee, subcommittee on Children and Families


Title: Childhood Obesity: The Declining Health of America’s Next Generation – Part II
Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2:30 p.m.
Place: SD-430


TK: The traceability and salmonella hearings will be very important for the fresh produce trade. No list of witnesses yet, but whoever takes a turn on a panel for those two subcommittees will be asked some tough questions and be provided ample opportunity to make a defense of the industry.

Psychological distortion?

The 45th Fresh Talk poll is one of the most provocative and hotly contested.

The question simply asks, “Who do you think is to blame for most cases of foodborne illness?
As of July 17, and with four days left to vote, the voters were pinning the blame fairly evenly between growers, retailers, foodservice operators and consumers.

Full disclosure: I voted for “consumers,” primarily because I think too many of us pay no heed to concepts such as the “safe food zone” and other common sense practices.
I asked the question of Fresh Talk’s companion board, the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group, and an online message board called “Food Safe.” That forum draws many food safety professionals. Beyond that, I asked what statistics are available to support any answer. Check out the Food Safe thread here.


You will find the first response to my question on “who is to blame” was “lawyers,” left in tongue in cheek style by the food safety attorney himself, Bill Marler.
Another Food Safe board member, David, said this:

“As soon as I saw Consumer on the list, that was a given, but consumer ones don’t make the news. Even if the consumer causes their own problems they are more likely to blame it on the last place they ate out, than their practices at home. Unless there are enough people who get sick, there is no way to track an illness anyway. “

Roy Costa wrote this response on the Food Safe board:

“You asked: "Who do you think is to "blame" for most cases of foodborne illness"?
I believe you have to ask a different question to get the answer you are looking for. The better question is: "What is the "population attributable risk" for FBI at each step in production for each of the major FBI pathogens"? You must ask this question because FBI hazards flow down through the chain creating exposures at each link.
Definition: Population attributable risk (PAR) is the reduction in incidence that would be observed if the population were entirely unexposed, compared with its current (actual) exposure pattern.
In the example below, if all the risk from Salmonella exposures attributed to primary producers was removed, the remaining risk of salmonellosis in the population would be 80%, etc. These following estimates are mostly my best judgment, but I have some data to support them. (OK. I will dig it all up if you are willing to send me a retainer, whataya want for free?)
Costa’s estimates for Population Attributable Samonellosis Risk Primary producers: 20%
Manufacturers 20%
Retailers 10%
Foodservice 40%
Consumers 10%

Carl on the Food Safe board said the question was loaded.
"Who do you think is to blame for most cases of foodborne illness?"
“(This question is a form of psychological and perceptual distortion, better known as blaming the victim, i.e., the people doing the work.)”
“When you ask about blame, it is a vastly different list. “
“This list is a list of people charged with carrying out actions not designing, training, governing, promoting and funding the actions involved with feeding people and caring for public health and sick people. “

Luis, a long time contributor to the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Board, posed this question in return:

Question is harder to answer than it appears.
“Suppose someone grilled a burger medium-rare this past 4th of July and his family got sick. Assuming, to quote Rosa DeLauro, that E. Coli does not occur naturally in beef, who do we blame? “

Finally, Steve on the Food Safe Board perceptively said that “holes” in each of the supply chain segment are where the blame lies.

“The biggest hole of them all – the regulatory agency that throws blameless growers under the bus.”

Who is to blame? As the salmonella investigation shows, everyone will get their share whether they deserve it or not.

Discussion Group considers the future of produce safety oversight

The Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group continues to add members, now topping 130. The numerical growth is gratifying, but more than that the group is gaining steam as an ongoing forum for important industry topics. Here is a recent thread about the future of produce safety oversight:


Valerie of the group asked if the FDA isn't distracted by the demands of their mission to oversee drugs and pharmaceuticals:

Valerie: I don't think they have enough resources to focus on alternative medications / dietary supplements as well as food because they really never needed to. Just my thoughts.


Pamela: Kind of like the department of homeland security being in charge of FEMA?
Little too much going on for one agency?


Manuel: I totally agree. When FDA went to Florida to present their work plan to the tomato growers, their focus was entirely from a research point of view. Whenever their were asked to bring their proposals down to a field operations level, they were completely lost. The have no experience in that field.
I am running a project in Mexico now, and called FDA to see if we could develop a pre-clearance program just like USDA has in many countries. As you might know, there have been rumors of FDA developing programs like such in the past. Long story short, no one even knew who to ask, or even if or when they might be able to start discussing the possibility of implementing a pre-clearance program.
USDA might not be a perfect agency (risking an understatement) but at least they do their job and the industry has a solid relationship with it.

In a later post, Steve writes:

Neither the FDA or the USDA have the manpower, energy or mandate to accomplish the job that needs to be done. Both organizations spend more time in bureaucratic bungalese than in actual plants doing the important work. Witness the recent recall of 5.3 million pounds of beef from Nebraska Beef for E. Coli; do we want the USDA doing these inspections? They have the same solutions the FDA has, if there is an issue, recall it all because comprehensive testing is not done and there are no traceback procedures in place.
Both organizations need to be essentially disbanded and reorganized into one inspection organization with responsibility for meat, produce, food processing and imports. There are plants that have USDA inspectors for one area, an FDA person with responsibility (during maybe two visits a year) for another area, maybe a state inspector a few times a year and customer mandated (due to no faith in government inspections) private inspections to try and make up for all the holes during their two or three visits a year.
No microbial testing, sporadic inspections, no traceback... sounds like the system works exactly as it was designed to; poorly.


Luis, a long time contributor to the board, concludes:

The single agency is the approach of the Safe Food Act introduced by Energy and Commerce. Calls for a single agency have been going on for decades and face both internal opposition from agencies and committees defending turf as well as external opposition by some industry groups. Change is very difficult. Disbandment and re-organization is not very likely, bar some catastrophe. The most one could expect is perhaps a bit of a re-organization, a bit more funding, a few more mandates (traceability etc.) and initiatives, lots of we are making progress publicity but nothing so substantial it breaks the inertia (ie. the delicate balance). May be something good could come out of all this.
Too much reading of US regulatory system failures, excess and decadence has me a bit pessimistic this 4th of July but plan to go out to watch the fireworks this evening a be reminded why this country unlike no other one on earth.
Cheers!


TK: You will come to appreciate the insights of individual members of the FPIDG and value the forum they provide. Join today and add to the discussion.....

Guavas coming to the U.S.?

That's the word on the street, reported here by Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group. Other Web reports of this include:

AP The AP reports the USDA has given guava imports from Mexico the green light ... Exports could total $80 million in the first year and eventually top $400 million annually.

TK: The reality of the situation is somewhat different. The USDA published "Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Importation of Guavas From Mexico Into the United States" on June 26 and comments are due by August 25 of this year. From the USDA abstract:

We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the United States of fresh guava fruit from Mexico. Based on that analysis, we believe that the application of one or more designated phytosanitary measures will be sufficient to mitigate the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of guavas from Mexico. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment.

Also published on June 26 by USDA: "Risk Management Document: Importation of Fresh Guava (Psidium guajava) Fruit from Mexico into the United States treated with 400 gy irradiation" From that 10-page document:

The PRA (USDA, 2008) determined that the risk is high for eight pests: the Tortricid moth, Gymnandrosoma aurantianum, and seven fruit flies, Anastrepha spp. and Ceratitis capitata. The risk was determined to be medium for both mites Oligonychus biharensis and O. psidium, two weevils in the genus Conotrachelus, four whiteflies (Aleyrodidae), six mealybugs (Pseudococcidae), and one soft scale Coccus viridis (Coccidae). The risk was also determined to be medium for the three pathogens, Mycovellosiella psidii, Pestalotiopsis psidii and Sphaceloma psidii. Mexico has proposed to treat guavas with an APHIS approved irradiation treatment that would mitigate risks from all insect pests except pupae and adult Lepidoptera. All of the insects except pupae and adult Lepidoptera will be effectively neutralized with the irradiation generic dose of 400 Gy (USDA, 2006). Other measures in addition to irradiation will be required to mitigate the risk from the mites Oligonychus psidium and O. biharensis. The irradiation treatment is expected to cause some mortality of these arthropod pests, but will not completely mitigate the risk. Other pests that are likely to follow the pathway include the three fungi, Mycovellosiella psidii, Pestalotiopsis psidii, and Spaceloma psidii. These three pathogens will be
subject to inspection for symptoms at the United States port-of-entry. The proposed importation of guava fruit from Mexico, if approved, would be regulated by an amendment to the existing fruits and vegetables regulations [7 CFR § 319.56]. This document outlines the phytosanitary measures that APHIS will require if the proposed importation of guavas from Mexico is approved and documents the evidence used by APHIS to conclude that these measures will effectively prevent the introduction of quarantine pests.

Further....

APHIS proposes that guava fruit from Mexico may be imported into the United States only under the following conditions:

(1). Guavas may be imported into the United States in commercial consignments only.
(2). The fruit must be irradiated with a minimum absorbed dose of 400 Gy and follow requirements of 7CFR parts 305.31 and 319.56.
(3). Each shipment of fruit must be inspected by the Mexican NPPO inspectors and be accompanied by a Phytosanitary Certificate (PC) issued by the Mexican NPPO certifying that the fruit received the required irradiation treatment. The PC must also include an Additional Declaration (AD) that states: "The fruit in this shipment was treated by irradiation with a inimum absorbed dose of 400 Gy, inspected in and found free of Oligonychus biharensis, Oligonychus psidium, Mycovellosiella psidii, Pestalotiopsis psidii and Sphaceloma psidii."

(4) Fruits imported into the United States will also be subject to port-of-entry inspection and found free of Oligonychus biharensis, Oligonychus psidium, Mycovellosiella psidii, Pestalotiopsis psidii and Sphaceloma psidii

Historical significance of irradiated fruit...

Current regulations 7CFR 305.31 and 7CFR.319.56-4 (b)(3) allow the use of irradiation to treat fruit for importation into the United States. Beginning in April, 2007, India has shipped mangos to the United States irradiated with a minimum dose of 400 Gy targeting arthropod pests and with a systems approach for fungal pathogens. Regulation 7CFR318.13-4 (f) allows interstate movement of fifteen different fruits, including mangos from Hawaii, allowing irradiation using a minimum absorbed dose of 150 Gy and 400 Gy for fruit flies, seed weevils and other quarantine pests. Fruits and vegetables treated with irradiation moved interstate from Hawaii have had no pests of quarantine significance intercepted (AQAS-PestID, 2007). On very rare occassions when live fruit fly larvae were detected in irradiated shipments, they were always found to be moribund and never resulted in further development or completing life cycles (Uyeda, 2005

From Purdue's Web site on horticulture, a description of guava:

One of the most gregarious of fruit trees, the guava, Psidium guajava L., of the myrtle family (Myrtaceae), is almost universally known by its common English name or its equivalent in other languages. In Spanish, the tree is guayabo, or guayavo, the fruit guayaba or guyava. The French call it goyave or goyavier; the Dutch, guyaba, goeajaaba; the Surinamese, guave or goejaba; and the Portuguese, goiaba or goaibeira. Hawaiians call it guava or kuawa. In Guam it is abas. In Malaya, it is generally known either as guava or jambu batu, but has also numerous dialectal names as it does in India, tropical Africa and the Philippines where the corruption, bayabas, is often applied. Various tribal names–pichi, posh, enandi, etc.–are employed among the Indians of Mexico and Central and South America.

Handling and keeping quality...

Ripe guavas bruise easily and are highly perishable. Fruits for processing may be harvested by mechanical tree-shakers and plastic nets. For fresh marketing and shipping, the fruits must be clipped when full grown but underripe, and handled with great care. After grading for size, the fruits should be wrapped individually in tissue and packed in 1 to 4 padded layers with extra padding on top before the cover is put on. They have been successully shipped from Miami to wholesalers in major northern cities in refrigerated trucks at temperatures of 45º to 55º F (7.22º-12.78º C). It is commonly said that guavas must be tree-ripened to attain prime quality, but the cost of protecting the crop from birds makes early picking necessary. It has been demonstrated that fruits picked when yellow-green and artificially ripened for 6 days in straw at room temperature developed superior color and sugar content.

Truck rate report - July 1

Not much change in truck rates this week. From the USDA's truck rate report on July 1:

A shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: melons from Georgia and South Carolina, and sweet potatoes from Eastern North Carolina. A slight shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: potatoes from San Luis Valley Colorado, Upper Valley Twin Falls-Burley District Idaho and Columbia Basin Washington and corn from South Georgia. Upper Valley, Twin Falls-Burley District Idaho noted a shortage to northeastern destinations with a slight shortage to all other destinations for potatoes. LAST REPORT was issued for corn from South Georgia and watermelons from South Texas. FIRST REPORT was issued for melons from Texas.All other districts reported an adequate supply of trucks.

Have rates topped out? Truck Rate Report - June 25

We see a slight softening in truck rates reported for the week ending June 24. From the USDA National Truck Rate Report, a summary of the market:

A slight surplus of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: citrus and avocadoes from South District California. A shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: melons from Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, sweet potatoes from Eastern North Carolina and onions fromSouthern New Mexico. A slight shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: carrots and potatoes from Kern District California, mixed vegetables and strawberries from Santa Maria California, potatoes from San Luis Valley Colorado, Upper Valley Twin Falls-Burley District Idaho and Columbia Basin Washington. LAST REPORT was issued for peppers from Imperial, Palo Verde and Coachella Valleys, California and Central and Western Arizona, cherries from Stockton-Lodi-Linden District, California, melons from Florida, mixed vegetables from South Georgia, apples from Hudson Valley New York. FIRST REPORT was issued for melons from South Carolina. All other districtsreported an adequate supply of trucks.

FDA's June 20 Update

From the FDA's Web page:

The FDA has completed the traceback for some of the tomatoes associated with the salmonella outbreak. The agency has been able to trace the pathway of some tomatoes from the point of purchase (e.g. supermarket) or consumption (e.g. restaurant) to each point on the distribution chain down to certain farms in Mexico and Florida.

The FDA is now working to narrow the investigation. As part of this, the agency is sending teams of multi-disciplinary experts to both Mexico and Florida this weekend to conduct joint inspections of the farms and other critical points on the supply chain where the tomatoes may have become contaminated.

The FDA investigators will conduct joint inspections with regulators in Mexico and Florida at the farms and other distribution points. Meanwhile, the FDA will continue to collect samples of tomatoes and conduct traceback activities.

To further narrow the investigation, the FDA is working with the state of Texas to traceback a cluster of illnesses recently found by the state of Texas. We are hopeful that this will provide additional information to bring the agency closer to the source of the contamination.

The FDA is working jointly with Mexico and Florida and other states to update the list of areas not associated with the outbreak and will continue to post the information on the web site.

Raw red plum, red Roma, and red round tomatoes, harvested from one of the sources that FDA has identified below are NOT associated with the outbreak and are acceptable to eat. Cherry tomatoes, grape tomatoes, tomatoes sold with the vine still attached, from all sources, and tomatoes grown at home are also not linked to the outbreak and can be eaten.
Update on the Outbreak

June 20, 2008: At this time, FDA recommends consuming raw red plum, raw red Roma, or raw red round tomatoes only if grown and harvested from the following areas that HAVE NOT BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAK:

* Alabama
* Alaska
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* Florida (counties of: Jackson, Gadsden, Leon, Jefferson, Madison, Suwannee, Hamilton, Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto, Sarasota, Highlands, Pasco, Sumter, Citrus, Hernando, Charlotte)*
* Georgia
* Hawaii
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Kentucky
* Louisiana
* Maine
* Maryland
* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Mississippi
* Missouri
* New Hampshire
* New Jersey
* New Mexico
* New York
* Nebraska
* North Carolina
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Pennsylvania
* South Carolina
* Tennessee
* Texas
* Utah
* Vermont
* Virginia
* Washington
* West Virginia
* Wisconsin
* Belgium
* Canada
* Dominican Republic
* Guatemala
* Israel
* Mexican States (Aguascalientes, Baja California Norte, Baja California Sur, Campeche, Colima, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Durango, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, México, Michoacán, Morelos, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Querétaro, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Tobasco, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala, Veracruz, Yucatán, Zacatecas) New!
* Netherlands
* Puerto Rico

* Shipments of tomatoes harvested in these counties are acceptable with a certificate issued by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Consumers who are unsure of where the tomatoes are from that they have in their home are encouraged to contact the store or place of purchase for that information. If consumers are unable to determine the source of the tomatoes, they should not be eaten.

Consumers should also be aware that raw tomatoes are often used in the preparation of fresh salsa, guacamole, and pico de gallo, are part of fillings for tortillas, and are used in other dishes.

Types of tomatoes not linked to any illnesses are cherry tomatoes, grape tomatoes, and tomatoes with the vine still attached.

Since mid April, there have been 552 reported cases of salmonellosis nationwide caused by Salmonella Saintpaul, an uncommon form of Salmonella. At least 53 hospitalizations have been reported. Investigation of Outbreak of Infections Caused by Salmonella Saintpaul (CDC) [en Español]

USDA Truck Rate Report - June 17

Truck rates for fresh produce continue to rise, nudging as high as $9,200 from Salinas to Boston. Here is the report's summary:

A shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: onions from San Joaquin Valley California, Southern New Mexico and San Antonio-Winter Garden-Laredo District Texas, melons from Florida and Georgia, and sweet potatoes from Eastern North Carolina. A slight shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: peppers, corn and mixed vegetables from Imperial, Palo Verde and Coachella Valleys California and Central and Western Arizona,carrots and potatoes from Kern District California, mixed vegetables and strawberries from Santa Maria California, potatoes from Upper Valley, Twin Falls-Burley District Idaho potatoes from San Luis Valley Colorado and Columbia Basin Washington. FIRST REPORT was issued for blueberries from South New Jersey. LAST REPORT was issued for onions from San Antonio-Winter Garden-Laredo District Texas. All other districts reported an adequate supply of trucks.

Mexico's next move

Luis of the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group posts this story from Mexico about what Sinaloa tomato producers in Mexico are considering in view of the "commercial problem" in the U.S. market. It certainly sounds as if new, mandatory self-imposed quality/food safety regulations are coming in Mexico. What follows are are a few graphs from the post, representing another example of the value of the discussion group and the valuable work of some of its most faithful contributors. To read the full post, sign up with the discussion group:

New Tomato Regulations Proposed
Claudia Beltrán 14-06-2008
http://www.noroeste.com.mx/publicaciones.php?id=384790&id_seccion=10

The Mexican authorities must take advantage of the commercial problem that is being experienced with tomatoes in the United States to formulate regulation that requires all producers to comply with minimum quality rules for tomatoes and the rest of the vegetables.

Sergio Esquer Peiro, grower and president of the Council for the Economic Development of the State of Sinaloa, emphasized that it is important for Mexican agricultural authorities to formulate tomato specific norms to regulate the food safety parameters of this product.
It is urgent, he declared, to elaborate these norms and to make very clear that nobody is being discriminated. However, any packer that handles a certain amount of production or works certain acreage must comply with these safety rules.