Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: Still bullish

Fed by a weak dollar, U.S. agricultural exports continue to set records. Here is the May 29 report on the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade. From the summary:


Fiscal 2008 agricultural exports are forecast at $108.5 billion, up $7.5 billion from February’s forecast and $26.6 billion above 2007. Grains and animal products account for two-thirds of the revision, with increases for all other groups except cotton. Higher unit values for wheat, feed grains, and rice plus a 2-million ton increase for corn and other feeds raise grain and feeds $2.6 billion. Animal products are raised $2.5 billion, with nearly half the increase is due to dairy products as unit values remain high and volumes increase. Oilseeds and products rise about $1.8 billion. Slower-than-expected South American exports have extended the season for U.S. soybean shipments longer than expected. Horticultural products account for $800 million of the increase aided by ample supplies, strong demand, and a weak dollar.

Fiscal 2008 agricultural imports are forecast at a record $78.5 billion, up $2 billion from February and $8.5 billion above 2007. Oilseeds, grains and products account for almost half the year over year increase, boosted by higher unit values and volumes. Grain and feed values are forecast up $700 million from February. Horticultural product imports are forecast to fall slightly from February, as a result of lower imports of fresh fruits and vegetables. Nevertheless, horticultural products are still $2.4 billion above 2007. Sugar and tropical products, including coffee, cocoa, and rubber, are forecast up $500 million from February, with coffee accounting for most of the increase due to higher unit values.

TK: The overall balance of agricultural trade is forecast at a $30 billion surplus for fiscal year 2008, up from just $4.6 billion in the black in 2006. Here are some big picture numbers on the fruit and vegetable trade:

* Combined fresh fruit and vegetable exports are forecast at $5.3 billion in fiscal 2008, up from $4.77 billion in fiscal year 2007.
* Fresh vegetable imports are projected at $4.4 billion in fiscal year 2008, up from $4.165 billion in fiscal 2007.
* Fresh fruit imports for fiscal year 2008 are projected at $5.6 billion, compared with $5.4 billion in fiscal year 2007.