Consumer motivation - to have and have not

John Stanton of Philadelphia-based St. Joseph's University has been a speaker on the produce convention circuit for some time. The first time The Packer's library notes Stanton was in 1998, when Jody Shee covered Stanton giving remarks to the National Grocers Convention. At the time, Stanton predicted the rising influence of television chefs, among other food trends. Since then, Stanton's name pops up some 15 times, as he has been quoted in stories ranging from Wal-Mart ("Everyone has an Achilles heel, and, at some point, Wal-Mart will find something they can't overcome. If you asked me in 20 years if Wal-Mart will be in a dominant position, I would answer no. But I don't have the foggiest idea of why they won't," Mr. Stanton says. Global Produce, 2000) to warning marketers about leaning too heavily on a trendy health message for fruit and vegetable promotion, and the fickle ways of journalists. ( "What are they going to write about next year?" he asked. "They're not going to say, ‘Hey, you know what we told you last year about blueberries? Well, it's still true.'" The Packer, 2002)

At the Aug. 22 session of the U.S. Apple Association Marketing Conference, Stanton provided on the more livelier presentations at the show with the topic of consumer motivation. Stanton's presentation dealt with the changing dynamics of the American economy - particularly a widening gulf between the "haves" and the "have nots."

Stanton presented some thought provoking statistics that reveal that 48% of Americans polled in 2008 think the country is divided along economic lines, up from just 34% who felt that way in 1988.

What are the implications for produce marketers? "Have not" consumers will "trade down" on their choice for produce and shop price-oriented channels. What's more, Stanton boldly said the organic food movement has "jumped the shark" and is now waning. However, Stanton does buy in to the notion that the local food movement is here to stay.

All in all, Stanton tried to tailor the message to apple marketers . For example, what would "generic apples" look like as a price play? Can the industry sell more ugly apples like Europe does to achieve a better price point? How can the industry get more of a presence in dollar stores and convenience marts? A few misses in some of those speculations, perhaps, but Stanton's intelligent and thoughtful presentation braces the industry for an extended period of sober economic realities.