The Future Is...not Plastics...but Futures

When the tomato market goes through tough times, like the present depressed situation with homegrowns & backyard product a-plenty, I sometimes wonder which specific factor will be the one to finally pull the price out of the doldrums.

Short-term, will it be less supply out of the commercial growing areas like California & Tennessee? Not likely---they've already scaled back because prices are at or below picking & packing costs.

More demand? Nope, I would venture to say that more tomatoes are being consumed right now on a daily basis than at any time since before the 'salamander' scare, which was what a shipping-point salesman coined it after the word 'salmonella' became tiresome to all of us. I think I'll scream next time I see a neighbor hold up a scarred, misshapen cull of a tomato from his garden, one he'd sneer at in the store, and proclaim 'this is the best tomato I've had in a year!'

Serenity now, indeed...

So we try to talk our way out of this malaise, but what if we had an alternative to offset this molasses-like movement?

Like...futures in tomatoes, or any fresh commodity.

They do it in orange juice, they do it in cotton, they do it in eggs, for God's sakes. If they can project what comes out of a chicken's rear-end, I have to think they can do it for fresh produce.

But, beware the old saying, be careful what you wish for, it might be worse than what you already have. I'm braced for that.

So...let's see where this leads us over the next couple blogs or so. I have a rudimentary knowledge of futures & option markets in stocks. I am aware of time decay nearing the end of a contract, towards the expiration date. Sadly, I have no idea how time decay works when the actual product is physically decaying at the same time. Sounds like a bad scene to me, man.

Or an impending train wreck.

Later,

Jay