Crop Production - Fading grapefruit

Today's USDA crop production report shows that grapefruit output in the U.S. continues to wane. From the report:

The initial forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.38 million tons, 12 percent lower than 2007-08 and down 15 percent from the 2006-07 final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978 million tons), 14 percent below last season and down 15 percent from 2006-07. The white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), down 22 percent from 2007-08 and 25 percent lower than the 2006-07 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is 9 percent lower than last season and down 11 percent from the 2006-07 utilization. If realized, this will be the lowest Florida grapefruit crop since the 1944-45 season, other than the hurricane-reduced 2004-05 and 2005-06 crops. Tree numbers of both white and colored varieties have been declining over the past decade. Excluding the recent hurricane- affected seasons, average fruit per tree of white grapefruit is close to the 40-year minimum of the 2002-03 season. Average fruit per tree of colored grapefruit is below seven of the last eight seasons.

The October 1 Texas grapefruit forecast is 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), down 13 percent from last season and 25 percent lower than the 2006-07 crop. The California grapefruit forecast of 5.50 million boxes (184,000 tons) is 4 percent lower than the 2007-08 season and unchanged from 2006-07. Grapefruit for the 2008-09 season continued to develop normally in California as harvest of the previous crop wound down. Arizona's forecast, at 150,000 boxes (5,000 tons), is up 50 percent from each of the last two seasons.


TK: U.S. consumption of fresh grapefruit peaked in 1976, when the USDA reported retail disappearance was 8.98 pounds per capita. How far down have we come? By 2006, U.S. retail disappearance of fresh grapefruit was a mere 2.24 pounds.

Statistics from Florida's Citrus Administrative Committee show that fresh shipments of Florida grapefruit in 2007-08 totaled about 19.8 million cartons. Of that total, just 7.3 million cartons were sold in the domestic market; more than half the fresh output, or 12.4 million cartons were shipped offshore - primarily Japan and Europe.

Ten years earlier, in the 1997-98 season, domestic grapefruit shipments totaled 20.7 million cartons and offshore exports equaled 19 million cartons.

Why is consumption so much lower now? From a University of California study in 2006:

While per capita consumption of most citrus products has remained strong or increased in recent years, per capita consumption of grapefruit has weakened. In 1970, per capita consumption of grapefruit was about 21 pounds per person, peaking at nearly 24 pounds in 1976 and 1977. By 2003, consumption had decreased to 12 pounds per capita. Part of the decline in grapefruit consumption is attributable to decade-old studies finding that grapefruit consumption intensified the effects of certain medication. Because a large percentage of grapefruit consumers are older and more prone to taking medication, it is thought that this has affected overall consumption (ERS 2005).


TK: That isn't the full story, of course. The role of canker, citrus greening, freezes and hurricanes can't be overlooked. What's ahead ? Duke Chadwell of the Citrus Administrative Committee said shippers there were just getting started with grapefruit harvest on Oct. 10. Chadwell said the Florida citrus industry is in a transition period with a future promising more easy peel seedless varieties to meet market demand and more disease resistant grapefruit varieties to combat citrus canker. Given the length of time it will take to find new varieties, Chadwell said the erosion of citrus crops may continue for several years.