Horticultural trade - USDA baseline projections

Above is the USDA's projection for U.S. horticultural trade in their long term outlook data released Feb. 13. The projections point to increasing importance of both imports and exports. From the link agricultural baseline projections:

Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually over the next decade, reaching $71.6 billion in calendar year 2018, up from $58 billion in 2008. U.S. horticultural trade continues to become increasingly important, both in terms of the export share of production and the import share of consumption.

• Within horticultural products, vegetables and melons continue to rank first in farm sales value over both fruits and nuts and greenhouse and nursery crops. Annual growth over the next 10 years is expected to be fastest for fruits and tree nuts, at 2.6 percent, followed by vegetables at 2.0 percent, and nursery crops at 1.6 percent.

• The volume of farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise annually at 0.4 percent. Total vegetable production volume is projected to expand at 0.6 percent annually and fruit production is forecast to decline on average by 0.1 percent in the next decade. The gradual increases in U.S. vegetable production volume hold gains in producer prices for vegetables at an annual 1.3 percent rate through the next decade. Combined with average price increases of 2.7 percent for fruits and nuts, farm produce prices are estimated to increase by 1.9 percent annually in the projection period.

• The average growth of U.S. horticultural import value is forecast at 3.7 percent from fiscal year (FY) 2009 to 2018. The value of exports is forecast to grow at 3 percent, with both fruits and vegetables averaging 2.8 percent in the next 10 years. Import growth and export growth of fresh-market vegetables and fruits exceed that of their processed products. The U.S. trade deficit in horticulture crops and products increases from $14 billion in FY 2008 to more than $21 billion in FY 2018. Of the total $28 billion U.S. exports of horticultural products in FY 2018, fruits and nuts contribute $12.8 billion and vegetables represent $6.5 billion. Total imports of $50.5 billion in FY 2018 include $16 billion worth of fruits and nuts, and $12 billion of vegetables and vegetable products.

• Imports will increasingly supplement the domestic supply of horticulture crops and products. The share of imports in U.S. consumption of horticulture crops and products (based on dollar value) is projected to climb from 48 percent in 2008 to 54 percent by FY 2018. Horticultural exports are projected to increase their share of U.S. production value from 36 percent in FY 2008 to 39 percent in FY 2018. The import and export shares of fruits and nuts are about twice as large as the corresponding import and export shares of vegetables.