A Guide to the Biggest Primary Day of the Year (So Far

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/09/us/politics/09zeleny.html

A Guide to the Biggest Primary Day of the Year (So Far

WASHINGTON — Of all the incumbents on the ballot across the nation Tuesday, of all the establishment figures whose careers are on the line in this midterm election year, there is no bigger target than Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic majority leader.


But will Mr. Reid’s prospects rise after Tuesday night?

That’s one of the questions that will be answered when the outcome of primary contests in 11 states — the biggest day so far this election season — provides a layer of clarity as to how Republicans and Democrats will be positioned in their battle for control of Congress over the next five months.

It’s a coast-to-coast series of primaries, with voters from South Carolina to California choosing which candidates will be on the general election ballot in November in campaigns for governor, House and Senate. Here is a state-by-state guidebook for some of the important races to watch.

NEVADA: Mr. Reid faces no serious Democratic opposition on Tuesday, but he will find out who his Republican challenger will be. As the leader of the Senate, Mr. Reid is inextricably linked to Washington and is ultimately responsible for passing the policies that have helped fuel the discontent in the electorate.

But Mr. Reid, through no doing of his own, may emerge in a stronger position for the fall. Three Republicans are locked in a vigorous fight for the chance to run against him. The candidate who has been leading in the polls is Sharron Angle, a favorite among Tea Party activists in the state. If she prevails over the former chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party, Sue Lowden, and a Las Vegas businessman, Danny Tarkanian, the outcome would provide the latest example that the anti-establishment tide is alive in both parties.

Republican strategists in Washington, who have been eagerly anticipating the chance to knock off Mr. Reid, worry that their work could become much more difficult because they believe some of the views held by Ms. Angle will not sit well with independent voters.

Nevada voters also are choosing nominees in the governor’s race.

Gov. Jim Gibbons could become the first governor across the country this year — and the first in the state’s history — to lose a primary contest. A variety of polls have showed that Mr. Gibbons is trailing Brian Sandoval, a former federal judge, by a double-digit margin.

ARKANSAS: Will Senator Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat, become the latest incumbent to fall in a primary this year? First, Senator Robert Bennett was rejected by Republican activists in Utah. Then, Senator Arlen Specter was turned down by Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania.

The results from Arkansas on Tuesday will test the old adage that things happen in threes.

Mrs. Lincoln fell short of winning 50 percent in the Democratic primary last month, forcing Tuesday’s runoff election against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. While she has the support of former President Bill Clinton, along with President Obama, Mr. Halter has the multimillion-dollar backing of organized labor. And Democrats rank the seat atop the list of those that they could lose in the fall, with a strong Republican candidate in John Boozman, a congressman who won the Senate primary last month.

CALIFORNIA: Republicans will select nominees for Senate and governor, with two former business executives poised to become the party’s standard bearers in the fall.

In the governor’s race, Meg Whitman, the former chief executive of eBay and a billionaire, has invested a small share of her personal fortune in her race against Steve Poizner, the state insurance commissioner, who put up $24 million of his own money into his primary campaign.

It’s a back-to-the-future race. The winner will challenge Jerry Brown, the state’s attorney general, who was first elected governor of California three decades ago.

In the Senate primary, Carly Fiorina, a former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, is running against Tom Campbell, a former congressman, and Chuck DeVore, whose candidacy has drawn the backing of many Tea Party activists. The winner will face Senator Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, in the fall.

Representative Jane Harman, who represents the state’s 36th District, in Southern California, will find whether she, too, is swept aside by the anti-incumbent sentiment. Ms. Harman, a centrist Democrat, is facing Marcy Winograd, a leading figure in the progressive movement in Los Angeles.

SOUTH CAROLINA: The race to replace Gov. Mark Sanford, a Republican ineligible for re-election because of term limits who has been hobbled politically by a sex scandal, has become one of the most drama-filled contests of the season. A state representative, Nikki Haley, is seeking to become the state’s first female governor. In recent weeks, she has been accused of infidelity twice, allegations she has fiercely denied.

After receiving the endorsement of Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor, Ms. Haley became the front-runner for the G.O.P. nomination. The three other Republicans in the race are Andre Bauer, the state’s lieutenant governor; Henry McMaster, the attorney general; and J. Gresham Barrett, a congressman. There is a Democratic primary, too, but the Republican-leaning state is not expected to change directions in the fall.

Both nominations could be ultimately decided in a June 22 runoff election.

One incumbent to watch is Representative Bob Inglis, a Republican who is locked in a challenging primary in a district he has represented for six terms. He could become the latest political casualty of the 2008 vote to bail out the nation’s banking industry.

NEW JERSEY: There are no statewide offices on the ballot, but Republicans and Democrats are selecting nominees in seven of the state’s 13 congressional districts.

Party strategists did not expect the contested primaries to produce any upsets, but the races provide a test of the strength of Republican candidates in the state, including some supported by Tea Party activists. One notable Republican hopeful is Jon Runyan, a former star offensive lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles, who is trying to emerge from a field of challengers to run against John Adler, a first-term incumbent Democrat, in a South Jersey district that had been Republican-held for decades.

IOWA: The anti-establishment theme of the 2010 election year will be tested anew in the state’s Republican primary for governor. Terry Branstad, who served as governor from 1982 to 1998, is back. If he prevails over two other opponents, he will face Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat and one of the party’s most endangered incumbent governors.

MAINE: Who will be the next governor of Maine? Who knows.

A wide-open race has unfolded to replace Gov. John Baldacci, a Democrat who is prevented from running again because of term limits. There are seven Republicans and four Democrats running in their primaries.