K-State Survey Indicates Lower Farmland Prices, More Non-Performing Loans in the Short-Term Outlook

Released: June 4, 2015



MANHATTAN, Kan. – Agricultural lenders are reporting decreased farmland values and increases in non-performing farm loans. According to the results of an Agricultural Lender Survey conducted by the Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics in March, this is a continuation of a trend witnessed in the end-of-year survey conducted in 2014.



“For the first time since we began this survey, the majority of respondents thought land values declined,” said Allen Featherstone, professor and department head of the K-State Department of Agricultural Economics. Additionally, he mentioned that the long-term expectation also pointed to declines in land values.



Researchers pointed to uncertainty in the markets regarding interest rates and competition amongst the lenders as some of the long-term factors in the results, which still showed a strong credit market for producers. Lenders cited lower commodity prices, rising operating costs and the softening of cash rents. Combining these with a decrease in farmland prices created concern in the long-term financial health of the farming sector.



However, in reference to the increase in non-performing loans, Featherstone said he believes the market is just cycling back to a normal state. The study indicated a stronger market of loan availability in the agricultural market, which would benefit producers in the future. Research shows that bankers are still interested in agricultural investments, but experts say the farmers are going to have to show a strong investment plan.



“Producers are going to encounter cautious lenders,” Featherstone said. “Farmers will have to be well-prepared and document plans going forward to continue to access credit at good rates.”



The Agricultural Lender Survey included 39 lending institution responses. Lenders in the survey considered five key areas: farm loan interest rates, spread over cost of funds, farm loan volumes, non-performing loan volumes and agricultural land values.



Various K-State Department of Agricultural Economics researchers developed and conducted the survey, including Brady Brewer, recent doctoral graduate; Brian Briggeman, associate professor and director of the Arthur Capper Cooperative Center; Allen Featherstone; and Christine Wilson, professor.



For more information about the outlook for agricultural credit conditions and commentary on areas of concern within agriculture, go to the K-State Agricultural Lender Survey http://www.ageconomics.k-state.edu/research/ag-lender-survey/index.html.