Avo's delayed impact

One California avocado marketer told me the cold weather there could erase about 30% to 40% of the state's 400 million pound crop. "We could easily lose 100 to 150 million pounds," he said. Damage was still being evaluated today.

With the globalisation of the industry, California's shipping season is now mostly from March to October. California accounted for only 6% of total U.S. supply from Dec. 31 to Jan. 6, compared with 53% from Mexico and 34% from Chile.

Mexican hass can enter the California market for the first time on Feb. 1,and that turns out to be a good thing this year.

The California market is primarily being supplied by Chile right now, but that volume will wind down in early March. Mexican volume swoons in the summer months.

Size 50s of Chile's hass fruit have increased modestly from about $20-24 f.o.b. in Los Angeles on Jan. 3 to $24-26 per carton on Jan. 17. There is no real urgency to raise prices sharply now, but it will come soon enough.

"From March on is when you will see the market rise," the shipper assured me.

Get them while they are semi-cheap