Apple Time

As I mentioned before, I queried Desmond O'Rourke about the apple industry's recent flush of good fortune. While growers are not immune from worry and problems (regulation, labor, rising costs) I get the distinct sense that they feel better about the fresh market than they have in some time. Prices have improved, as the above chart demonstrates. O'Rourke says grower psychology in the Northwest U.S. shifted roughly in March 2006, when land prices began to inch higher again.

O'Rourke said a global shortage of apples has contributed to a better year in the U.S. Europe and the Southern Hemisphere have been down, and Washington's own supply was lower. In addition, O'Rourke said farm commodities in general are rising in price faster than in recent years. "You have a very healthy environment for food prices," he says.

Putting a finer point on it, I asked about the influence of more consumer friendly varieties. He agreed that has helped, and he also pointed to the as of yet unmeasured effect of SmartFresh on apple demand. It could be that SmartFresh is helping galas and other varieties arrive to the consumer in better condition than five years ago.

What about the upcoming year? Washington apple sources have been talking about a modest sized crop, but O'Rourke said first estimates have missed badly in the past. The first estimate last year called for a crop of 88 million fresh cartons, and the final crop size was more like 98 million cartons. "They had as many extra fresh boxes as the entire state of New York," O'Rourke observed.

A crop size in the range of 90 million to 100 million boxes may be expected for Washington for 2007-08, he said.