Fruit outlook cloudy

Lower prices for most deciduous fruit were noted in the USDA's ERS Fruit Situation and Outlook report, issued yesterday. From the report, it seems apple growers still appear to be in a fairly strong position for 2007-08. Unmentioned in the report is the growing power of clementine production in California; from a recent conversation with a citrus marketer, I get the idea the growing footprint of that deal figures to increasingly crowd out clementines from Spain and make life none too easy for Florida tangerine shippers as well.


The index of prices received by U.S. fruit and tree nut growers remained below a year ago in
August as it has since May of this year. At 153 (1990-92=100), the index fell 5 percent below the August 2006 index due to lower prices for fresh-market apples, grapes, peaches, and all oranges and grapefruit. At the retail level, prices in August were higher for oranges, lemons, bananas, and strawberries. Light ending-season supplies of 2006/07 apples combined with a forecast smaller domestic crop in 2007 point to a continued strong market for U.S. apples during the 2007/08 marketing season. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecast the 2007 U.S. apple crop to be 7 percent smaller than in 2006, totaling 9.3 billion pounds. Production is expected to be lower across much of the Nation, including most major appleproducing States—Washington, Michigan, Pennsylvania, California, and Virginia.
NASS forecast the 2007 U.S. pear crop to be 1.76 billion pounds, 4 percent larger than last year. Among the three Pacific Coast States that produce a major share of the U.S. pear crop,
production is forecast to increase in California and Washington, but decline in Oregon. Combined production in these three States for Bartlett pears and other variety pears is forecast up 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively. The increase in production will likely hold 2007/08 fresh-market pear prices down from last season, but lighter supplies of competing new crop apples will help moderate some price declines.

On oranges.....

NASS released its first forecast for the 2007/08 California navel orange crop on September 12. According to results from the 2007/08 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report, 1.6 million tons of navel oranges are forecast to be harvested this season. If realized, this crop would be 27 percent bigger than last season’s frost-damaged crop, but 9 percent smaller than the average-sized 2005/06 crop. Trees experiencing the greatest impact of the freeze are likely still recovering, affecting the overall crop size. The survey also reports that there are 130,000 bearing acres of navel oranges in California’s Central Valley (composed of Fresno, Madera, Tulare, and Kern Counties), 1,000 more than last season. The trend toward increased planting of navel oranges has been going on since the early 1990s, although the rate of increase has slowed over the past few years. Trees are planted more densely on the newer acreage than the older ones, increasing the average number of trees per acre to 130, up from 121 trees between 1992/93 and 1998/99. The forecast for a smaller than average crop could result in strong grower prices this season. Reports, however, of smaller than average fruit size can dampen the extent of the increase, especially from export markets. In recent years, about 30 percent of the crop is exported each season.

On Florida citrus....

Florida NASS Field Office Conducts Citrus Inventory


NASS’ Florida Field Office and the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services conducted a special commercial citrus inventory of selected counties which were among the top 10 producers for all citrus. (Inventories are generally conducted every other year, but the industry requested a special one be conducted this year following one in 2006.) The inventory found a 4.1 percent loss in acreage between 2006 and 2007 in the 7 counties selected—Collier, DeSoto, Hendry, Indian River, Martin, Lee, and Polk. In 2006, these 7 counties accounted
for 56 percent of Florida’s citrus acreage. Martin County, in Southeast Florida, experienced the greatest drop in citrus acreage between 2006 and 2007 with a 12 percent decline. Over the past 5 years, between 2002 and 2007, the bulk of the acreage losses occurred due to acreage removed in response to citrus canker and the major hurricanes that directly hit Florida in 2004 and 2005. Over this time period, Florida lost 19 percent of its citrus acres. The greatest losses occurred in Indian River, with a 30 percent decline, and Martin, with a 27 percent decline. Polk and Hendry, the No. 1 and No. 2 counties in terms of number of acres, also experienced heavy losses. While official NASS estimates for all of Florida’s citrus crops will not be released until October 12, early private estimates have already been published, forecasting a bigger Florida orange crop for the 2007/08 season. The bigger crop will likely reduce grower prices from the very high prices received in 2006/07, but should remain above average. Demand from processors is still strong as they continue to replenish inventories. Also, although this season’s crop may be up from last season, it is likely to still be below average for pre-hurricane years. Higher prices will help growers offset some of the increases in the cost of production as they face higher prices for fuel, increased expenditures for disease control, and potentially tight labor availability at harvest.