Fresh Produce Discussion Blog

Created by The Packer's National Editor Tom Karst

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

USDA long term projections to 2017

In advance of the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, the agency has released its long term projections for U.S. agriculture. Find the 100 plus page pdf here.
The report is heavily focused on grains, oilseeds and livestock, but here are some horticultural projections from the USDA.

U.S. imports of horticultural products (fruit and nuts, vegetables, greenhouse and nursery products, essential oils, beer, and wine) are projected to continue outpacing exports, with net imports expected to increase about $12 billion from 2007 to 2017. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar after 2011 is an important factor affecting trade, slowing export demand for U.S. horticultural products and raising U.S. import demand.
U.S. horticultural imports are expected to grow by about 4 percent annually through 2017. Imports play an important role in domestic supply during the winter and, increasingly, during other times of the year. Reduced trade barriers offer U.S. consumers increased variety, with freer trade also enhancing global competition.
• The EU is the top source of U.S. horticultural imports, accounting for $9 billion out of a total $32.4 billion in 2007. Mexico is the second biggest source of U.S. horticultural imports ($7.4 billion in 2007) followed by Canada ($3.5 billion). Chile and Brazil are also large sources of horticultural product imports by the United States. Key import commodities include potatoes, tomatoes, bananas, grapes, frozen concentrated orange juice, apple juice, melons, tree nuts (especially cashews), wine, beer, and essential oils.
U.S. horticultural exports are expected to grow by 3 percent a year through 2017, with the major export markets including Canada, the EU, Mexico, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Exports of almonds, other tree nuts, and noncitrus fruits will lead export growth of fruit and nuts. Exports of fresh vegetables will be stronger than processed vegetables. Exports of wine and essential oils are also expected to increase.


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