Potato predictions

Gary Lucier and company have delivered another fact filled Vegetable and Melon Outlook report. Find the link to the USDA ERS Vegetables and Melon report here. From the summary:

Total 2008 U.S. potato acreage is estimated to be down 8 percent from a year earlier due partly to competition for acreage with crops such as sugar beets or wheat in Idaho and corn or wheat in other growing areas. Fall-season area planted was the lowest since 1951. With lower acreage and tight storage supplies for both fresh and processing varieties, prices are expected to remain strong into early fall. The average farm price for all U.S. potatoes in July was 11.4 cents per pound—up 35 percent from a year earlier.

On peppers:

The popularity of chile (pungent) peppers has increased over the past 2 decades and imports of fresh chiles have grown along with domestic demand. In 2007, a record 563 million pounds of fresh-market chile peppers were imported—up 72 percent since 2000 and 188 percent since 1995. Through June, chile pepper imports were up 28 percent from a year earlier in 2008. About 98 percent of U.S. fresh-market chile pepper imports come from Mexico. For all chile peppers (fresh and processed), imports accounted for about 76 percent of U.S. consumption in 2007. In 2007, per capita use of chile peppers (on a fresh-weight basis) totaled 6.1 pounds—up nearly 1 pound from 2000.

On fresh vegetables:

Expected reductions in yield and area harvested for summer storage onions (the primary source of onions during the fall and winter) will combine to reduce production moderately from the 57.3 million hundredweight (cwt) of 2007. This crop will transition from the summer nonstorage onion crop, which is expected to total 10.4 million cwt—down 9 percent from a year earlier.Following a spring featuring relatively weak prices, fresh dry-bulb onion prices have slowly begun to strengthen this summer and are expected to average well above the lows of a year earlier into next spring. This summer, given lower area for harvest, fresh vegetable prices are expected to average slightly above the highs of a year ago despite relatively weak demand caused by the slowing economy.

On melons:

This summer (largely July-September), area for harvest of the three leading melon crops was estimated to be 109,900 acres—8 percent below a year earlier. Area is expected to be lower for each of the three melon crops. With area down 11 percent in Georgia due partly to drought, watermelon area is expected to drop 9 percent from a year earlier. With reduced market volume for all melons, prices have remained above a year earlier, with July wholesale prices for all melons averaging 42 percent higher.