NAFTA as a teenager

The USDA's Economic Research has released a couple of reports we should note. One is the 39-page PDF Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, and can be found at this link. The outlook report extensively reveals freeze damage in California and a wealth of grower and retailer stats.

The other ERS report is even more interesting, and looks at NAFTA at 13.

The 49-page NAFTA report is found here.

Of particular note is a table that shows the relative market share of Mexican and Canadian fresh produce shipments to the U.S. For example, tomatoes from Mexico accounted for 16% of U.S. disappearance from 1991-1993, and 29% from 2003-05. The market share for squash jumped from 19% to 35% in the same time period, and bell peppers grew from 18% share of U.S. disappearance to 40%.


From the report:


A major result of the heightened integration of North America’s fruit and vegetable market is that imports from the NAFTA countries have become more important to U.S. food supply. In 2004, Mexico and Canada supplied about 8 percent of the fresh or frozen fruit available in the United States and 12 percent of the available fresh or frozen vegetables. In 1990, these shares equaled 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Changing diets and the development of off-season supplies of fresh produce outside the United States have fostered a shift in U.S. consumption away from processed fruits and vegetables and toward fresh produce. In 2004, fresh produce accounted for 48 percent of U.S. fruit and vegetable supply, up from 44 percent in 1990 (USDA, Economic Research Service, 2006a; USDA, Foreign Agricultural
Service, 2006).


Net imports (i.e., imports minus exports) provide another indicator of the increased reliance on imports to supply U.S. fruit and vegetable consumption (table 3). Prior to NAFTA, net imports from Mexico exceeded 15 percent of U.S. supply for a wide variety of produce—including fresh limes, fresh mangoes, fresh papayas, fresh asparagus, bell peppers, broccoli and cauliflower for processing, fresh cucumbers, squash, and fresh tomatoes. Since NAFTA’s implementation, a number of these commodities—fresh limes, fresh papayas, bell peppers, squash, and fresh tomatoes—have experienced an increase of at least 10 percentage points in this measure. Net imports from Canada now account for a larger portion of U.S. supply of bell peppers, fresh cucumbers, and fresh tomatoes than they did in the early 1990s. Indeed, Canada has become a net exporter to the United States of fresh cucumbers and fresh tomatoes. Again, U.S. tariffs toward Canadian product were small for these commodities prior to CUSTA.


TK: No surprises here, but confirmation that Mexico and Canada are more and more integrated into the U.S. food supply; note also the recent decision by Taylor Fresh Foods to locate a fresh-cut plant in Mexico that will ship product to the U.S.

Major props to Uno pizzeria

My wife and I ate an Uno's pizza restaurant in Overland Park, KS, last night. When we entered, the first thing that caught my eye were two big trays filled with red delicious apples sitting on the greeter's table. Instead of giving people cello-wrapped hard peppermints as they leave, the owner decided to give his patrons the option to pick up an apple, either coming into the eatery or leaving. That is a creative move, and bound to create goodwill, foster a memorable dining experience and better eating for patrons.

Corn popping

The USDA's prospective plantings report was released today. Find it here.

The big news, as expected, is an ethanol fueled 12 million acre jump in prospective plantings of corn

.

Corn growers intend to plant 90.5 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2007, up 15 percent from 2006 and 11 percent higher than 2005.

If proven true, corn area planted would be the largest since 1944. An economist with USDA, speaking on background, said it is important to remember that the report is only prospective plantings, and reality could change by June. Rainy weather could cause growers to forego planting corn, or the big 90 million acre number could scare producers.

Still, the big increase in corn acreage is likely to moderate gains in potato acreage. The first fall potato acreage report will be released in July, and both production and acreage are targeted to grow between 1% and 2% in 2007.

Sweet potato acreage is down 3%.
Other highlights: Soybean acreage down 11%, all wheat acreage up 5%, all cotton acreage down 20%.

Spinach harvest begins and then what

Spinach harvest is upon us in the Salinas Valley. Can we be confident of avoiding an outbreak linked to E. coli tainted spinach? This story from the Santa Cruz Sentinel looks at the issue of when marketing agreement standards will formally be in place.
From the story:

The California Department of Food and Agriculture said the measures — including monthly testing of irrigation water, keeping a closer tab on worker sanitation and creating buffers to keep wildlife off the farm — are expected to be in place by the end of spring.
"We're moving with deliberate speed, and our target date so far is June 21, the beginning of summer," said Steve Lyle, a spokesman with the department.


TK: It is not as if growers are waiting around for June 21 to begin following good farming practices; they already are fully engaged in issues of food safety. The industry and the public should feel better about what has been done so far, but that small slice of risk weighs heavily on producers this year.

Marketing food safety

In essence, marketing enhanced food safety is what the industry is doing as a single entity through the leafy greens marketing agreement and recently approved GAPs. However, KSU food safety professor Doug Powell surprised me in December when he said in an interview that he believes produce companies should individually market the food safety qualities of their produce to consumers. Listen to what he said then.

And what do you think of Powell's comments?