FAS reports of interest

Here are a few of the recent USDA FAS reports that may be of interest to Fresh Talk readers:

Canada fresh deciduous report
Present prospects point to lower production in Canada from the 2008 fresh apple and pear crops. All major apple producing regions of the country experienced weather related production problems and pear producers in Ontario ripped out 250 hectares of trees following the closure of the last fruit cannery in the province. Post forecasts Canadian fresh apple production to fall 11% from a year ago to about 360,000 MT and total fresh pear output to decline by as much as 20-25% to about 9,000 MT. In 2007 Canada became the first country in the world to introduce Harmonized Trade System codes to record imports of organic products and this report provides marketing year data for Canadian imports of organic apples from the United States. According to official trade data, Canada imported 4,340 MT of organic apples from the United States during MY2007/08 (July/June). U.S. organic apples accounted for 3.3% of total Canadian fresh apple imports from the United States of 132,561 MT.

Chile fresh deciduous
The industry forecasts an expansion in fresh apple, table grape and pear production, as weather has been favorable in most growing areas. As a result exports of these selected fruits are also expected to expand in 2009. A larger apple juice output is expected due to a larger availability apple harvest is forecasted.


Chile avocado
Although, Chilean avocado production will continue to increase in the coming years, as there are still a large number of orchards entering their most productive stage, this and next years output is forecasted to be much smaller than last season as heavy frosts during the 2007 winter affected large areas of production. Total area planted to avocados has increased significantly during the last few years, but industry sources indicated that the rate of increase in planted area is expected to level off. Excellent gains made in export markets in the past were the main reason for the significant increase in dedicated land use to avocados. But as prices are falling together with an expected increase in competition from Mexico in key export markets like the US, a slowdown in the planting expansion will occur.

Mexican oranges 2008 Highlights...
MY 2008/09 production of fresh oranges is forecast to be 10 percent lower due to dry weather conditions in the northern states of Mexico. However, production for Key limes and Persian limes is forecast to increase due to overall better weather conditions. Grapefruit production for MY 2008/09 is forecast to be marginally higher than MY 2007/08, although
less grapefruit is expected from the northern parts of Mexico (especially Nuevo Leon) due to dryer weather conditions. Lower FCOJ production levels for MY 2009 (January-December) are forecast due to low international prices.

Mexico apple antidumping dispute
Mexican officials expect resolution of the apple antidumping dispute following the issuance of a final ruling on the case by a bi-national NAFTA dispute panel that should be released in the first quarter of 2009. In a separate but related action the Secretariat of Economy (SE) announced in the Diario Oficial (Federal Register) the annual review of the compensatory quotas currently imposed on seven companies.


Australia deciduous report
Despite recent widespread rainfall, much of Australia’s apple and pear production remains under drought conditions. Poor soil moisture and a lack of irrigation water are expected to persist into the CY 2009 season and are expected to constrain production during this period.
Apple production for CY 2009 is forecast at 290,000 MT. Exports of apples for the CY 2009 season are forecast at 5,000 MT. Pear production for CY 2009 is forecast at 135,000 MT, down significantly on the 150,000 M Total pear exports for CY 2009 are forecast at 3,000 MT.

Poland's winter of discontent
EU farmers in Poland are expressing unhappiness with prices and policies through protests in Warsaw and Brussels to call attention to their complaints. The discontent extends across of a variety of products due to low prices (caused by oversupply and normal cyclical price variations) frustration with processors, and fears of EU subsidy reductions. Many farmers are holding off selling crops in an attempt to wait out the crisis. The big problem will be pring, when farmers need credit. How do you get a new farm loan when you lost money last year? There is intense pressure for action by the EU Commission to address these issues coming from Poland.

South Africa retail report
South African retailer market leaders Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Spar, Massmart and Woolworths
continue adapting to changing conditions and perfecting their store formats while expanding across the borders into the Southern African countries and beyond. 2007 value sales of supermarkets grew by 22 percent to reach US$ 10 billion, mixed retail outlets grew by 7 percent to reach US$ 6 billion, forecourt retailers recorded value sales growth of 9 percent to reach US$ 0.9 billion, and convenience stores grew by 10 percent to reach US$ 0.8 billion.

China retail report
In 2007, total food retail and wholesale sales in China reached USD 104.4 billion, a double digit increase over the previous year, as China's economy continued its impressive growth
and central government policy encouraged private sector spending in order to shift the
economy to a more consumption-oriented path. International retailers in particular have
benefited from their reputation for offering higher quality products than most domestic
retailers, thanks to stricter quality control in a country where food safety is a major concern


Russia: Doctrine of food security
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture is working on a National Food Security Doctrine, which
may be adopted by the Order on the Russian President in December 2008. The concept of
the doctrine was supported by the Upper Chamber of Russian Parliament. The doctrine shall
include several indexes, which will show the target levels of the country's food security,
including per capita agricultural food consumption, share of imports of domestic
consumption, indicative prices for some major agricultural food products

Argentina fresh deciduous
Argentina's CY 2009 total fresh deciduous fruit production is forecast at 1.845 million MT, up 45,000 MT from the previous year, due to higher yields. The total fresh deciduous fruit crop for CY 2008 is expected to decrease to 1.8 million MT, primarily due to frost damage in 2007 which affected apples and pears. Total exports in CY 2009 are estimated to decrease to
800,000 MT as a consequence of the international economic crisis which will affect world
demand. Domestic consumption is expected to remain stable, and imports will continue to
be negligible.

Canadian potato production
November 21, 2008 Statistics Canada released the first estimate of 2008 Canadian potato production. The agency indicated that total Canadian potato production fell 5.4% to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) from 5.0 MMT last year. The estimate mirrored the forecast made last month in the Potato and Potato Product Annual CA8076 issued by the Office of Agricultural Affairs which predicted a 5.4% year-to-year crop decline and a 2008 crop of 4.7 MMT. Comment: Potato producers in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada’s most important potato producing province that normally accounts for about 25% of total Canadian potato production, abandon over 1,000 hectares in 2008 due to extremely wet weather that caused the potatoes to rot in the field. PEI growers were offered federal/provincial financial aid to offset their losses (see page 12. CA8076). Elsewhere, production increases in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario failed to offset the combined production losses in the provinces of PEI, New Brunswick and Quebec resulting in the overall 5.4% decline in the 2008 crop.

Australia oranges
Total orange production for 2009/10 is forecast at 480 TMT, up significantly on the estimated 440 TMT for the previous year. Total orange juice production for 2009/10 is forecast at 12,700 MT, up on the revised figure for the previous year. Post has assumed a return to average weather conditions, in the lead up to, and during the 2009/10 season. This alone should provide a slight increase in production.

Japanese unshu oranges
The 2008 Japanese "Unshu mikan" tangerine crops are expected to decline approximately 12
percent from the previous year. Area planted for tangerine trees continues to decline due largely to Japan's aging farmers. The business recessions caused by global financial system crises have been affecting the Japanese sales of citrus products. Japanese tangerine farmers were forced to ship more fruit to processing due to the stagnant fresh produce market. The new crop Florida grapefruit sales are expected to be 6.5 million cartons, down 7 percent from last year. Short U.S. orange crops are expected to reduce Japanese sales in 2009. Stagnant lemon consumption increased the Chilean lemon inventory.

Changing market perceptions in China

Japan food and beverage markets

China urban consumption trends

Japan's "veggie meetings"