20 years and counting

New Zealand has had enough. As I was working on some details relating to the WTO panel appointed to hear Brazil and Canada's complaint against U.S. farm subsidies, I noted this item on the WTO Web site:

New Zealand requested a panel for the first time (WT/DS367/5) to review measures affecting market access of its apples into Australia. Australia did not agree to the panel. New Zealand said it had sought access for its apples into the Australian market since 1986. New Zealand considered that the measures prohibiting its apples into the Australian market were not scientifically justified and were inconsistent with the SPS Agreement. New Zealand regretted that the consultations held in October 2007 did not resolve the matter. Australia was disappointed that New Zealand had requested a panel and added that the bilateral channels were the most effective way to deal with such a matter. Australia said it remained open to further consultations and stated that the measures identified by New Zealand were science based and in full compliance with its WTO obligations.

TK: Australia's foot dragging on the importation of New Zealand apples is legendary, but of course the U.S. is no spring chicken when it comes to looking at access for Chinese apples, either.

Reaction from Down Under:

NZ continues apple battle with Australia

And from the land of kiwi:

Aussies block WTO probe into New Zealand apple ban

Global warming (for real)

From a Dec. 13, this report from NOAA gives a wrap-up of U.S. weather in 2007 (one of the top ten warmest years since records began) and said this about global trends:

• The global annual temperature − for combined land and ocean surfaces – for 2007 is expected to be near 58.0 F – and would be the fifth warmest since records began in 1880. Some of the largest and most widespread warm anomalies occurred from eastern Europe to central Asia.

• Including 2007, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997. The global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6°C and 0.7°C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend.

• The greatest warming has taken place in high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Anomalous warmth in 2007 contributed to the lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite records began in 1979, surpassing the previous record low set in 2005 by a remarkable 23 percent. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, this is part of a continuing trend in end-of-summer Arctic sea ice extent reductions of about 10 percent per decade since 1979.

TK: Still, a global surface temperature increase of less than one degree Celsius since the start of the 20th century. Who to believe, Rush Limbaugh or Al Gore?

Lime time

One discussion thread on the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group is the hot lime market. The market today is already $2 higher than Monday, Cal reports.

NRA response

As to how the restaurant industry would respond to a recession, I received a reply from Maureen Ryan, media relations manager for the National Restaurant Association. From Maureen:

"Restaurants are an essential part of many consumers' lives meaning that while economic growth may slow, consumers will not give up dining out. Just look at the 2001 recessionary period where the industry continued to post positive real gains, although at a more modest rate. Let me follow my comment up with one statistic - 82% of consumers say that going to restaurants with family and friends is a better use of leisure time than cooking and cleaning up."

TK: I agree we Americans place a great deal of stock on convenience and we won't "give up" dining out, but I still wonder if the 4.4% growth rate may be on the high side for next year. I would look for consumers to "trade down" and frequent more value-oriented quick serve restaurants in 2008. I'm frankly amazed that 18% of consumers think cooking and cleaning is a better use of leisure time than "going to restaurants with family and friends." How fun are those folks?

Something has got to give

The National Restaurant Association predicts 4.4% growth for 2008, while other economists are calling a recession likely next year. I don't think both scenarios are possible, so it will be interesting to see which prognostication is closer to the mark. Talking yesterday to Bob Young, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, he said agriculture broadly benefits from the weak dollar. For example, combined U.S. apple, pear and stone fruit exports have been up about 15% from January though October this year. Grain commodities benefits from several factors aside from the weak U.S. dollar. Improving economic conditions in Asia are creating a rare period of "demand pull" for U.S. agricultural products, and fund managers are hedging inflationary pressures on the stock market by speculating in the futures markets for corn, wheat and soybeans. Biofuel adds to the pitched demand for corn. All in all, it is an intoxicating brew for U.S. agriculture now, but it certainly appears the broader economy is walking on eggshells as we head into 2008.

Imported fruit look in