There is money in them there food safety tests

There is money to be paid and money to made in food safety tests in coming years, says this article passed along by Doug Powell of the KSU Food Safety Network. From the PR news release:

Report Buyer, the online destination for business intelligence for major industry sectors, has now added a new report showing that the U.S. market for food safety testing will be worth $2.1 billion in 2007. This is expected to increase to over $2.8 billion by 2012, experiencing a compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8%. “Food Safety Testing: The U.S. Market”, available from http://www.reportbuyer.com/go/BCC00173, reports that the market is broken down by contaminant type including pathogens, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), toxins, residues and others. Of these, pathogen testing has the largest share of the market. Valued at nearly $1.8 billion in 2007, this segment is expected to be worth $2.4 billion by 2012, a CAGR of 5.1%.
The second largest segment, GMOs, was worth an estimated $106 million in 2007 and will reach $193 million by 2012, a CAGR of 12.7%. According to the report the potency of toxins and the need to meet domestic and international tolerance limits should propel this segment from a $78 million market in 2007 to $135 million in 2012, a CAGR of 11.6% over the next 5 years. Residue testing will grow from a $67 million market in 2007 to $85 million in 2012.

Christmas spread - Retail roundup

Holiday-themed food page ads featured delectable color pictures of ham, shrimp, beef and rack of pork this week. Produce was also found on the front pages of food ads, but typically below the fold. Here is a roundup of the produce ads in suburban Kansas City for the period of Dec. 19-24.

Price Chopper: - Dec. 19-Dec. 24
Sunkist navel oranges: 15 cents/each (front page)
Washington premium red delicious apples: 69 cents/lb (front page)
Dole celery: 79 cents each
Golden ripe pineapple: $3.99/each
Del Monte chunk pineapple: $3.99/16 oz.
Fresh green beans: 2 for 45/ 12 oz. package
Green Giant whole mushrooms: $1.29/8 oz package
Earthbound Farm organic spring mix or baby spinach: $4.99
Eat Smart Vegetable tray: $8.99/36 oz. package
Washington Anjou pears; 99 cents/lb
Green Giant baby cut carrots: 2 for $5/ 2 lb package
Sweet potatoes: 69 cents/lb
Santa Sweet grape tomatoes: 2 for $4/10 oz
Cauliflower: 2 for $4
Broccoli crowns: $1.19/lb
California cuties: $3.99/3 lb bags


Wal-Mart Dec. 19-Dec. 24
Golden pineapple: $2.86/each

Dillons - Dec. 19 to Dec. 24
Holiday fruit basket:$12.99
Seasons Greetings: $16.99
Fresh cucumbers or green onions: 69 cents each
Sweet potatoes: 79 cents/lb
Jumbo green peppers: 89 cents each
Celery: 10 for $10
Large ripe avocado: 4 for $5
Fresh Express cole slaw: 4 for $5
Kroger 2 lb baby carrots, grape tomatoes or cauliflower: 2 for $5
Herb Thyme organic herbs: $1.99
Jumbo Del Monte Gold pineapple: 2 for $6
Veggie trays include organic: $9.99 to $14.99


HyVee Dec. 19t o Dec. 24
Sweet juicy clementines: $4.99/5-lb box (front page)
Golden cantaloupe: 2 for $4 (More Matters logo)
Fresh mangoes: 99 cents each
Chile red sweet cherries: $5.99/lb
Fresh asparagus: $3.48/lb
Ocean spray cranberries; 2 for $3
HyVee Garden salad or cole slaw mix: 99 cents/16-oz package
Crisp red cranberries: 99 cents/1 lb package
Grimmway Farms carrot chips: 16 oz. package
Dole celery hearts: $2.68/ 2 ct. package
Monterey baby bella mushrooms: $1.88/8 oz
Grimmway Farms carrot stixx $1.28/12 oz. package
Hyvee Russet potatoes: $1.38/5 pound bag
Monterey whole white mushrooms: 2 for $3/ 8 oz package
Peruvian sweet yellow onions: 77 cents/lb
Fresh blackberries: $1.98/5.6 oz. package
Fresh blueberries: $2.98/4.4 oz.
Stemilt jumbo apples: $1.18/lb
Melissa's fresh peeled garlic: $2.29/ 6 oz. package
Golden sweet potatoes: 77 cents/lb
Texas Rio Star grapefruit: $9.99/ half box
Sunkist navel oranges: $9.99/ 24 ct. box
Sunkist pummelos: 2 for $4

Hen House Market - Dec. 19 to Dec. 24
Earthbound Farms Certified Organic baby spinach or springmix: $3.99/each
Jumbo Golden pineapple: $3.99/each
Jumbo size granny smith or red or golden delicious apples: $1.19/lb
Regal comice pears: $2.49/lb
Late Howell cranberries: 2 for $4
Medjool dates: $6.99/lb
Del Monte pineapple chunks: $3.99/each
Green Giant mini carrots: 2 for $5/2 lb bags
Stringed and cleaned green beans: 2 for $5/12 oz bag
Sweet grape tomatoes: 2 for $4/ 10 oz to 12 oz package
California broccoli crowns: $1.19/lb
Earth Exotic baby vegetables: $3.99/each
Green Giant sliced mushrooms: 2 for $3
Fresh pascal: 79/each
Louisiana sweet potatoes: 69 cents/lb
Apio Meat and veggies tray with dip/ $14.99
Mountain King butter red or butter gold potatoes: 2 for $5

High marks on energy bill

Congress is getting some high marks for its energy bill from the American Farm Bureau. From a news release today:

Farm Bureau Commends House Members For Energy Bill Votes

WASHINGTON, D.C., December 18, 2007—The energy bill passed by the House today expands the production and use of fuels made from renewable energy sources, helps boost the nation’s energy security and encourages economic development in rural America, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. AFBF commends members of the House who supported the comprehensive legislation.
“We’re pleased the energy bill passed by the Senate and now the House includes a strong renewable fuels standard of 36 billion gallons by 2022,” AFBF President Bob Stallman said. “American farmers and ranchers have the opportunity to play a significant role in the energy solutions of the future, including the production of renewable energy sources such as ethanol and biodiesel.
“We know key members of Congress negotiated long and hard to craft a strong bill that would receive bipartisan support. Now that the House and Senate have produced a final version of this significant legislation, we urge President Bush to sign it into law as soon as possible,” Stallman said. “This legislation moves our nation forward on the path toward greater energy security.”
The bill approved by the House by a 314-100 margin requires the use of 36 billion gallons of ethanol and other renewable fuels by 2022, a nearly six-fold increase over today’s use of these fuels. Of this total, 21 billion gallons ultimately would have to come from “advanced” biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol, that have 50 percent to 60 percent lower greenhouse gas emissions.
The House approved the final version after senators passed it by an 86-8 margin last week. A sufficient number of Senate Republicans supported the measure after Democratic leaders agreed to strip the bill of language that would have required large oil and gas companies to pay nearly $13 billion in additional taxes. Another sticking point—a provision that would have required utilities to use a set amount of fuel made from renewable sources to generate electricity—also was removed to ensure sufficient congressional support and erase a threatened presidential veto.

It's going to be a bumpy 2008

The Farm Bureau sent me the December issue of their Market Update, a monthly economic analysis of both the general economy and farm commodities. As for the overall outlook, I found it particularly sobering (negative growth ahead!) and yet well supported by facts. It confirms the general dread that we all experience when we see the stock market plunge for days in a row. Of course, we know economic predictions are often wrong........

From Bob Young, chief economist of AFBF

About the only thing that seems to be certain with respect to the future course of the general economy is the notion of at least a coming slowdown relative to the performance we observed in the first three quarters of 2007. Some have continued to raise the specter of things getting so bad that we may actually tip into negative growth territory. (There’s an economist term for you – negative growth) Third quarter numbers for overall growth in the general economy came in stronger than a lot of people anticipated. At an annualized rate of
4.9%, it caught a lot of people by some surprise.The figures were strong enough to move the
Federal Reserve to state at the October 31 meeting, “The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth.” One of those risks is the current rapid rise in mortgage delinquencies and the potential number of loan delinquencies. Numerous borrowers will see their loans reset over the next 9-18 months, moving even more home mortgages into delinquency and potentially even foreclosure. Foreclosed homes typically sell at a 25-30% discount compared to other homes in the market, dragging down housing prices for even the good borrowers. If you believe the financial press reports,thinking has changed considerably since the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Continued problems in the financial markets deriving from the sub-prime lending mess are being discussed daily with some discussion now moving over to how the issue is coming through on car loans and how it will affect some state and local governments that used the derivates as investment tools to park money. The results of efforts to get a handle on this issue are having mixed reception. A privately financed effort created to try to serve as a conduit of funds to buy some of these loans instruments was originally envisioned to start with a solicitation of $100 billion. It now appears that fund will only be about half that size. Lending institutions that are not able to move products into this fund or some other funding source will likely be forced to bring these loan amounts back onto their books. This will reduce their reserves and limit the supply of funds they have available to lend to other qualified borrowers. It is this potential limit in credit availability and flow of funds that is causing significant concern. This credit problem at the consumer level is already showing up as a sharp decline in net borrowing by the household sector. First quarter 2006 showed $1.2 Trillion in net borrowing on an annualized basis. Third quarter 2007 had the same number down to $691 billion. A significant chunk of these funds represent a decline in ‘mortgage equity extraction’ – read that as home equity loans that allowed consumers to extract part of their home equity for short term spending. Mortgage equity extraction has fallen 50% from its peak. This was a fine strategy when housing prices were rising and by some measures provided the funds for upwards of 5% of consumer spending. Remove those monies and consumer spending starts to feel pressure. Higher gasoline prices are taking an additional $30 billion per month out of consumers pocket books compared even to August levels of this year. Moody’s Economy calculates a cash-flow measure of income for households that includes salaries and wages as well as equity extraction and other consumer credit. It is at its lowest level in over a decade. Add all this together and you have strong expectations of a slowdown in consumer spending in the coming months, possibly even out to the middle of next year. Consumer spending typically makes up roughly two-thirds of the general economy. Exports have been very strong with the weak dollar and better economic activity in other countries. Many business balance sheets are still in strong shape with a significant amount of cash on hand to deal with slow-downs and possibly even to make investments. Job growth has certainly weakened, but is staying in the 1% range. Bottom line is an economy that is very fragile. Many have talked about the probability of a recession now approaching the 50% mark. This is certainly possible, but my expectation is that we stay slightly on the positive side for the next few months before things start to settle out and the economy moves back toward recovery. Hang on for what could be a rough ride in 2008.

British retail report

They are probably more like us than anyone else in this world, and we appreciate the compliment. Here is a report about British retailing from the USDA FAS, a 14-page pdf that provides a profile of the retail sector and some predictions of growth.

One small nugget from the FAS report:

The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) has estimated that the UK retail grocery market will grow at an average rate of 2.9 percent over the next five years. It is expected to be worth £138.2 billion ($261.2 billion) by 2010, at current prices. Growth is expected to come from both ends of the grocery store portfolio spectrum, i.e. convenience stores and superstores, also known as hypermarkets. There are currently, around 660 superstores in the UK. The IGD estimates that their number will increase by almost a third in the next five years, despite tough UK town planning laws. The convenience store sector is also expected to continue to grow strongly and is forecast to reach £33.9 billion ($64.1 billion) by 2011.

Food in 2008

Some pundits and prognosticators identified "social responsibility" as the big trend in food retailing for 2007, I would say that trend was only warm to the touch, not white hot. The softening economy has perhaps taken some of the edge off "social" issues for consumers with subprime mortgages and workaday worries. Given the inexact nature of predictions - setting aside the Old Testament's prophets, of course -- what are the fearless forecasts for food trends in 2008?

Well, the Associated Press already has the answer. Here is a link to a story by the AP's J.M. Hirsch (passed along by KSU Food Safety Network) that spells out what we can expect. From the article, a few excerpts:

From the overview:

....two forces - the proliferation of foodie culture and its obsessive desire for provenance, and growing worries over food safety - have combined to create a whirlwind of information about food and drink.


TK: Hirsch amusingly writes that organics have "jumped the shark" (see this wikipedia reference for that term ) and states that local is now the golden child of foodies. But when Wal-Mart goes local, how long can this trend last? He writes:

Savvy food marketers today are latching onto the latest child of the natural foods movement - local - and are trying to take it mainstream. As eco-sensitivity has grown, consumers have questioned whether eating organic grapes from Chile is a particularly "green" choice. Now people want to know how far their food traveled, and the closer the better.
Hence, the growth in farmers markets, community supported agriculture, restaurant menus bragging about local sourcing, and the naming of "locavore" as word of the year by The New Oxford American Dictionary. Even mainstream grocers are jumping on, offering and advertising a growing number of locally produced goods. The question is whether "local" will lose cachet once big box retailers co-opt it as they did organic.


TK: Other trends that Hirsch spots include a growing consumer desire for more information on varieties. On food safety, Hirsch writes that "repeated recalls of meat and produce have drawn attention to the sluggish and outdated American food safety system." While changing the FDA won't happen overnight, Hirsch said marketers are reacting quickly. "Expect food companies to be as nimble, touting new and increased safety measures." Will 2008 be a celebration of fat? Well, Hirsch said bad foods and fatty foods are fighting back with consumer messaging touting "realness" over fake food. Finally, he said grocery stores are trying to become sexier, trading in the traditional aisle looks of superstores for a more glamorous, open market feel. While he didn't mention Tesco, we can probably credit Tesco for supermarket chains taking a closer look at their prepared food offerings. This article was a good read, but I feel it over-generalizes about local foods.
What I conclude from the article is that the fresh produce industry should ideally have a well-funded generic promotion arm that could create and sustain consumer messaging reinforcing the desirability of fresh fruits and vegetables.

Grade standard for TOV

In a Dec. 18 Federal Register rule, the USDA has established grade standards for tomatoes on the vine, with an effective date of Jan. 17. Here is some background quoted directly from today's rule:

On May 26, 2006, AMS published a notice in the Federal Register (71 FR 30367), that solicited comments on the proposed voluntary United States Standards for Grades of Tomatoes on the Vine. The proposed standards contained sections pertaining to general information, grades, tolerances, application of tolerances, size classifications, definitions, and a table of metric conversions. The following grades and tolerances for each grade also appeared in the notice: U.S. No. 1 and U.S. No. 2. In addition, ``Application of Tolerances'' section and ``Size classification'' section were listed. The standards also defined ``Damage,'' ``Serious damage,'' ``Tomatoes on the Vine,'' along with other specific basic requirements and defects. Additionally, AMS also sought any comments related to the proposed standards that may be necessary to better serve the industry. In response to the notice, AMS received six comments on the proposed standards. The comments are available by accessing the AMS, Fresh Products Branch Web site at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/fv/fpbdocketlist.htm. On February 16, 2007, AMS published a subsequent notice in the Federal Register (72 FR 7593-4), that solicited comments on the proposed voluntary United States Standards for Grades of Tomatoes on the Vine based on comments received from the primary notice. A single comment was received on behalf of a trade group representing growers and packers, expressing the need for additional time to comment. The group requested an extension to the comment period to allow review of the proposed voluntary standards and consider comments. AMS published a reopening and extension of the comment period in the Federal Register (71 FR 34426), on June 22, 2007. The comment period for the extension ended on August 21, 2007. AMS received no additional comments from the industry on the proposed standards. The United States Standards for Grades of Tomatoes on the Vine will become effective 30 days after publication in the Federal Register.


TK: That must frustrate the agency. They get a request to extend the comment period and then no one else comments. Here is a previously published USDA summary of the six comments that were received in the first comment period.