The Psychological Cost of Advice Not Taken

Had an interesting discussion with the youngest daughter over the weekend regarding college majors. She heads off in August to a high-quality public institution in a neighboring state, and we talked about the correlation between her deciding on a specific path at the university versus finding a decent job when spit out four (or more) years later.

My first inclination, of course, was journalism. The power of the press. Woodward & Bernstein. Cigar-smoking and those weird green visors. All that crap. Then I read that the Boston Globe, in business since 1872, (only seven years after that immortal line "...so how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"), may be closing their doors this week. Incredible. Ix-nay on that.

I would have suggested business as a major, but this daughter, while brilliant in many ways, finds what we do daily---the compiling of data, the 'strategerie', the thrill of the completed sale---distasteful almost to the point of ignorance. I think she'd be slam-dunk successful in whatever is the opposite of buying/selling--maybe pottery-making, not that there's anything wrong with that. After a bad day at Black Rock, I think I'd enjoy tossing something into a kiln, just to watch it incinerate.

So, as I was feverishly projecting four years out to the prospect of said daughter returning home, whining, "Da-a-a-ad, what do I do NOW?"---after her parents have transferred six figures plus from their coffers to the college's account---I had the revelation that the field of psychology is the common thread the binds us all.

Why? With almost any produce commodity, the real supply/demand ratio recently has had less & less effect on markets. Unfortunately, the sizzle, the BS, the hype, what may or may not happen in futuretime instead of what is taking place now, is what makes a price move. What makes the big players---the major wholesalers and foodservice monsters---decide on a block deal purchase on a whim? To a certain extent, it's the psychological aspects of this & the immediate rush of being 'right' in the end.

And it's not just produce. The sheep mentality that's pushed the Dow 30% higher since March 1 has little to do with the nasty financial numbers still being released. Conversely, a farmer friend of mine with hogs has endured a twenty percent pork market haircut solely because the formerly-called swine flu was incorrectly named.

I thought I made a good case to the daughter. She plans to be an education major.

Later,

Jay