Roubini Predicts A Second Half Slowdown - Bank Investment Consultant

By Helen Kearney, On Wall StreetRenowned economist and author Nouriel Roubini said little to cheer advisors at today’s Investment Management Consultants Association conference in New York City, predicting an anemic U-shaped economic recovery in the U.S.

Despite a pick up in activity in the first half of this year, Roubini predicted a slowdown in growth in the second half as the effect of the government stimulus package begins to wane. He expected gross domestic product growth to fall to 1% or 1.5% in the second half of the year from approximately 3% in the first six months of 2010.

Roubini pointed to the high unemployment rate, continued deleveraging in the housing sector and the damaged financial and credit systems as further causes for concern. He also predicted the personal savings rate will gradually increase to 8% from its current 4%; and as consumption represents 70% U.S. GDP, it will likely affect growth negatively.

Growth could be boosted by additional government stimulus, but Roubini described this as a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. If the government backs off too quickly from its stimulus efforts, and private demand is still relatively weak, it risks pushing the economy into a double-dip recession as experienced by Japan in the late 1990s. However, if the government adds too much stimulus it may create unsustainable fiscal deficits and spur inflation.

Despite his bleak assessment for the U.S., Roubini predicted an even slower recovery in Europe and Japan. He sees governments in Europe already backing off from their stimulus efforts (mostly because many of these countries had a high level of public debt even before the crisis) and private demand is not yet strong enough to fuel the recovery without government help.

Asked by an attendee to pick one asset class that will hold up over the next decade, Roubini pointed to emerging markets. He sees a growth rate in emerging markets of 5% to 7%, versus 3% for advanced economies, and in particular favors China and India over other countries, such as Russia. Roubini believes China and India are more likely to continue with market-friendly economic policies.

Obesity rates stabilize but remain high - Health.com

Obesity rates stabilize but remain high - Health.com

(Health.com) -- Obesity rates in the United States are still sky-high, but for the moment they appear to have stopped climbing higher, according to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

One out of every three American adults is obese, and two out of every three are overweight, according to the data. Among children and teens, the numbers aren't much better: Roughly 17 percent of children between the ages of 2 and 19 are considered obese. All of these percentages have increased sharply since 1980, the data show.

The obesity rate among women and children hasn't changed measurably over the past decade, however, and it has remained largely flat among men for the past five years, according to the CDC report, which was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Obesity experts reacted positively to the report, but emphasized that there was little to celebrate about the big picture.
The obesity rates have somewhat leveled off, and for the most part that's good, but the bad news is that they have leveled off at a prevalence rate that is alarmingly high.

"The obesity rates have somewhat leveled off, and for the most part that's good, but the bad news is that they have leveled off at a prevalence rate that is alarmingly high," says Scott Kahan, M.D., the co-director of the George Washington University Weight Management Program, in Washington, D.C. "We have a lot of work to do, and this has to be a national priority to move forward from here."


Louis J. Aronne, M.D., the director of the Comprehensive Weight Control Program at New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center, says that "it's premature to declare victory in our war against obesity, but this is the first battle that has been won." He adds, "Obesity is still the leading nutritional health problem facing Americans and the leading driver of health-care costs. Stopping it from going up is a nice start, but more is needed."

It's not exactly clear what's responsible for the stabilization of the nation's waistlines. Experts say that the trend may be due to greater public awareness about healthy diets and the importance of regular exercise, and to the various school- and community-based programs that have been launched to fight the obesity epidemic. The growing popularity of gastric bypass surgery may also have played a role, according to Aronne.

"It could be that we're finally having an impact on people's behavior, and starting to take enough aggressive action with weight-loss surgery to stem the tide of obesity," he says.

The data in the CDC report were based on height and weight measurements collected during a biannual national survey of more than 5,500 adults and 4,000 teens, children, and infants. Those measurements were then used to estimate the average body mass index (BMI) of various segments of the population. Obesity is defined as a BMI of 30 or above, and overweight is defined as a BMI of 25 or above.

Some groups are at greater risk for obesity than others, the survey showed. The prevalence of obesity among women (36 percent) was slightly higher than that among men (32 percent), and it was also higher among blacks (44 percent) and Hispanics (38 percent) than among whites (33 percent). The researchers caution, however, that these group differences in BMI may not present an accurate picture of obesity, since people of different ethnic groups tend to carry their weight differently and have different ratios of fat to lean tissue.

Excess weight has been implicated in more than 60 diseases, included heart disease, diabetes, and breast cancer, according to Aronne, who stresses that lowering the obesity rates must remain a national priority. "Obesity has to remain at the top of the list of problems we need to manage to improve the health of Americans and control health care costs," he says.


The CDC researchers caution that obesity trends are difficult to forecast, and that while rates may have stabilized somewhat, "future large changes cannot be ruled out."

Listing calorie counts and other nutritional information on menus, using taxes on junk food and soda to fund obesity programs or subsidize fruit and vegetable prices, and re-establishing physical education in the nation's schools are "all part of the solution," says Kahan.


"Obesity is now a part of the national dialogue," he adds. "If we continue with our social and political will, we very well might see continued progress."

Freeze in Florida could chill shoppers purchasing fresh produce - The Scranton Times

Freeze in Florida could chill shoppers purchasing fresh produce - The Scranton Times

Florida's lingering freeze could chill grocery shoppers in the fresh produce aisle.

Prices are jumping quickly for an array of vegetables as Florida copes with a record stretch of subfreezing weather.

"The short-term and long-term effects are going to be severe," predicted Paul Holmes, general manager of DiMare Fresh Inc., a Florida-based produce wholesaler that has a distribution site in South Scranton. "In the very near future, you are going to see much higher (produce) prices in the retail and restaurants sectors."

The future has arrived at some supermarkets.

"We've already seen a 40 percent increase in green beans," said Joe Fasula, co-owner of Gerrity's Supermarket, which operates nine grocery stores in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. "Tomatoes are going to go out of sight. There will be significant (price) increases."

The run-up occurs after consumers paid lower prices for fresh produce in 2009, but the scope of the frost's destruction and its consumer impact remain unsettled.

"The true test will be the severity of the damage two or three weeks down the road," said Jay Rosenstein, a co-owner of William Rosenstein & Sons, a produce wholesaler on Keyser Avenue in Scranton. "Right now, the tomato market (price) is almost double from what it was two weeks ago."

The extended cold in Florida, which is the chief source of fresh vegetables on the East Coast during the winter, also will impact prices for eggplant, summer squash, bell peppers, cucumbers, strawberries, citrus fruits and other produce.

"Eggplant and zucchini prices are 30 to 40 percent higher," Mr. Rosenstein said.

"For us, it's going to mean short supplies on some commodities: green beans, Florida juice oranges, honey tangerines and strawberries," said Jo Natale, a spokeswoman for Wegmans, a Rochester, N.Y.-based grocery chain that operates supermarkets in Dickson City and Wilkes-Barre Twp.

Consumers got a break on produce at the supermarket throughout most of 2009. Fresh fruit and vegetable prices in November were down 5 percent from November 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index.

"All (produce) pricing was down 5 percent or more," Mr. Holmes said. "We were paying less than we had been a year ago, but that's going to change."

Distributors and grocers have supply options, but they add costs.

"Strawberries are our biggest problem," Mr. Fasula said. "We had to go to California and Mexico for strawberries and that drives the price up significantly."

Increased orders for vegetables from Mexico will show up soon in grocery bills.

"The growers want to psyche you up to pay higher prices," he Mr. Rosenstein said.

It could be weeks before the full impact surfaces, depending on the amount of the damage to Florida's crops.

"Volumes could be off anywhere from 40 to 60 percent," Mr. Holmes said. "You are going to see (supply) disruptions in certain items."

Fruits and vegetables may reduce risk of lung cancer - Food Product Design

Fruits and vegetables may reduce risk of lung cancer - Food Product Design

ALBUQUERQUE—Dietary fruits and vegetables may reduce the risk of lung cancer in current and former smokers, according to a new study published in the Cancer Journal.

Researchers examined sputum samples and food-frequency questionnaires from 1,100 current and former smokers to assess promoter methylation of eight genes commonly silenced in lung cancer and associated with risk for this disease. Methylation status was categorized as low (fewer than two genes methylated) or high (two or more genes methylated). Logistic regression models were used to identify associations between methylation status and 21 dietary variables hypothesized to affect the acquisition of gene methylation. Significant protection against methylation was observed for leafy green vegetables and folate. Protection against gene methylation also was seen with current use of multivitamins.

Supermarket chains look for better 2010 - Market Watch

Supermarket chains look for better 2010 - Market Watch


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Supermarket chains, ground down by a year of price wars aimed at keeping hard-pressed customers, are starting 2010 wondering how much longer they can go without further harming their share prices.

Grocery-sector stocks have taken a drubbing the past three months, with Kroger Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!kr/quotes/nls/kr (KR 20.69, +0.06, +0.28%) down 14%, Supervalu Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!svu/quotes/nls/svu (SVU 14.32, -0.02, -0.11%) down 11% and Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!winn/quotes/nls/winn (WINN 10.01, -0.08, -0.79%) down 27%. Safeway Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!swy/quotes/nls/swy (SWY 21.29, -0.12, -0.56%) is down 7%.


By comparison, the S&P 500 Index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,136, -12.46, -1.09%) is up 4% over the same period.

Steep discounts, which have been eating away at profit margins and forcing some grocers to change their promotional tactics, show no signs of abating.

"In my 30-plus years in retail, I've never witnessed the intense level of price reductions and promotional activity now occurring," Supervalu Chief Executive Craig Herkert said this week.

Behind all this are tight-fisted consumers, deflation and the highest U.S. jobless rate in a generation. The pain from weak growth in same-store sales goes straight to the stock price.

At the same time, the established players are facing stiff competition from discounters like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!wmt/quotes/nls/wmt (WMT 53.67, -0.54, -0.10%) , Costco Wholesale Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!cost/quotes/nls/cost (COST 58.78, +0.06, +0.10%) and Target Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!tgt/quotes/nls/tgt (TGT 50.19, +0.09, +0.18%) , who have been adding groceries aggressively to their overall line of merchandise.

Hapoalim Securities analyst Ajay Jain isn't betting on a swift recovery. "For food retailers, [sales trends] tend to be very closely linked to the employment cycle. Without significant improvement in the nonfarm payroll data or wage growth, a sales or margin recovery is unlikely to shape soon," he said.

Stock valuations are nearing 2001-02 levels, the last time grocers hit rock bottom after consumer spending slowed. Yet Wall Street analysts remain cool to the sector.

Price wars will weigh on supermarkets for at least another six months, commented Pali Capital analyst Bob Summers: "Everyone will continue to fight for that dollar."

Based on consensus long-term stock-price targets, analysts are forecasting slim gains over the current share price levels for Safeway and Supervalu. Kroger is considered more of a safer bet, with 61% of analysts covering the grocer recommending the shares.
Who's shopping

It's a tough stock call on the grocery business, according to Vitaliy Katsenelson, portfolio manager at Investment Management Associates, a value investor. He is considering whether to invest in the sector again; his firm sold its Supervalu shares when the chain cut its dividend 50% in October.


"The price wars concern me the most," said Katsenelson, author of the Contrarian Edge blog. "It seems that the rest of the retail industry is stabilizing, but I'm not sure if it is getting better or worse" in the grocery business.

There have been some recent buyers of supermarket stocks. On Friday, Supervalu's Herkert purchased 25,000 shares of his grocery chain in an open market transaction.
In another regulatory filing Friday, investment firm Manning & Napier Advisors disclosed it purchased 7 million Kroger shares and 6.8 million Safeway shares during the quarter ended Dec. 31. The firm couldn't be reached for immediate comment.

A big question is how much the price wars eat into future cash flows at supermarket chains, added Katsenelson. Supermarket chains have been using existing cash to run promotions and lower shelf prices on everyday foods.

Supervalu, which runs the Albertsons, Jewel-Osco and Sav-A-Lot chains, gave investors something to cheer about Tuesday. It reported its gross margin was more stable for the quarter ended Dec. 5 compared with the past two periods.

But sales at stores open one year worsened, falling 6.5%. Minnesota-based Supervalu said customer count declined 2% and the average basket size fell 4.5%.


The company decided to forgo some promotions to preserve its operating margin. Supervalu also is in the process of cutting back on the number of products it keeps on its shelves.

"Price tactics once used to drive foot traffic and tonnage are now driving lower transaction size and margin erosion," Herkert said.

Shoppers are cherry-picking promoted items, according to the Supervalu chief executive. In the past, grocers used to lure in shoppers with a big sale on meat or fish and count on the shopper to pick up other items before heading checking out.

The hyperpromotional climate is forcing Greater Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!gap/quotes/nls/gap (GAP 8.76, -0.41, -4.47%) , which runs chains A&P and Pathmark, to overhaul its pricing strategy.

First lady's garden - NZ Herald

First lady's garden - NZ Herald

United States presidents - or their wives - have been gardening at the White House for over 200 years. Here is a brief history of cultivation at America's most famous address.

THOMAS JEFFERSON

President Jefferson (1801-1809) hired the first White House gardener, who also was responsible for cultivating a "kitchen" garden. It was not until 1825, however, when John Quincy Adams became president, that the vegetable garden and surrounding grounds began to flourish. Adams established a nursery for tree seedlings and a garden filled with vegetables, herbs and fruit trees, flowers, shrubs and shade trees.

ABRAHAM LINCOLN

By the 1840s, a new kitchen garden had been planted southwest of the White House. Receipts for the seeds show that Civil War President Lincoln and his wife, Mary Todd Lincoln, enjoyed an assortment of fresh fruits and vegetables. The garden was removed in 1871, during the presidency of Ulysses S. Grant, due to construction of West Executive Avenue.

ELEANOR ROOSEVELT

First lady Eleanor Roosevelt used the White House grounds during World War II to show support for a civilian defence programme for producing homegrown fruits and vegetables.
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Under the first lady's guidance, 10-year-old Diana Hopkins planted a demonstration "victory garden" in a flower bed south of the East Garden in the spring of 1943. Diana lived in the White House with her father, Harry Hopkins, an adviser to President Roosevelt. Diana maintained the garden throughout the summer as an example for the country.

MICHELLE OBAMA

First Lady Michelle Obama, with help from local schoolchildren, planted a new "kitchen" garden last year on the lawn southwest of the White House. The garden is providing fresh, seasonal produce for the first family and White House guests to enjoy. Mrs Obama also is using the garden to educate children about the importance of eating more fresh fruits and vegetables as part of a healthier lifestyle.