More food trends for 2008

We've already noted an AP story on food trends for 2008, and now this article also presents fearless predictions about food for 2008. This time the prognosticator is Phil Lempert, Today Show contributor and self-proclaimed supermarket guru. On to Phil's predictions:

1. It's all about the garbage. "2008 will clearly be driven by the headlines that measure garbage."

2. Where did this product come from? "Tesco’s Fresh & Easy stores now open in California, Nevada and Arizona will no doubt force the industry to install similar systems that will enable the retailer in seconds to track an individual product’s path from farm to table with all the details necessary to determine a product’s safety. "
"...I can only hope that by the time you read this a few wise people in Washington, D.C., have woken up and made Country of Origin Labeling a reality, finally. "

3. It's how much?"I am not suggesting that food companies run out and increase their prices. What I am suggesting is that the drive to have the “cheapest food supply on earth” is old-school and needs to be forgotten.
We need to shift our resources, and produce foods and ingredients where we can ensure the proper nutrients and safety procedures are in place — hopefully that occurs on American soil."

4. The aging of America..again. "The 76 million baby boomers start turning 65 years old in 2010, and while the impact of this generation turning 50 drew lots of attention but little impact, this time it will be different."

5. Relationships. "It’s all about relationships: relationships with our farmers, our suppliers, our peers, our associates and most importantly ... the relationships with our fellow shoppers."


TK: In my view, Phil overestimates the sensitivity of consumers toward garbage. At least in the Midwest, this sensitivity will not be the dominant food trend. Yet there does exist a strong ethic about garbage and recycling in some parts of the country. My son, in the Portland area, told the story of when he had put an empty soup can in the garbage. A new roommate fetched the soup can from the trash, peeled off the label and put paper and can into their respective recycling bins. Yes, some people care that much - but not all of us.
And for Phil to suggest Americans will be less price conscious now, at the doorstep of a recession, is also off base. Phil is on target about the movement toward traceability in the food industry. But will baby boomers suddenly become more health conscious? I'm afraid some of us will be clutching a McDonald's double cheeseburger when the Big One comes.

Vegetable and Melon Report

Here is a link to the Dec. 18 Vegetable and Melon Outlook Report from the USDA ERS. Some highlights:


On import growth of asparagus...


Since 1989, Peru’s share of the U.S. fresh asparagus import market has risen from 5 percent to 58 percent in 2006. At the same time, Mexico’s import market share has declined from 79 percent in 1989 to 40 percent, even as their shipments to the United States have nearly quadrupled—courtesy of expanding U.S. demand for fresh asparagus and a 37-percent decline in U.S. production. Imports, which now enter year round, will likely account for about 78 percent of U.S. fresh market asparagus consumption in 2007—up from 59 percent in 2000 and 24 percent in 1989. The longrun outlook indicates that vegetable production may rise about one-tenth over the next decade, with fresh-market vegetable output rising fastest, followed by potatoes and vegetables used for canned, frozen, and dehydrated products.


On fresh vegetables...


During the first 10 months of 2007, the value of fresh-market vegetable imports (excluding potatoes, melons, and mushrooms) increased 7 percent to $3.3 billion. Most of this gain occurred during March-May and can be partly attributed to impacts of the January western freeze, plus increased demand for onions, garlic, and greenhouse vegetables. This winter, assuming average weather, fresh-market import volume is expected to remain at or below that of ayear ago due to expected larger domestic supplies and lower prices.


On melons....


The value of fresh-market melon imports increased 14 percent during the January-October period to $339 million due largely to higher average import prices. Volume increased just 3 percent with most of the gain coming from a 9-percent surge in watermelon imports. As usual, the majority (86 percent) of watermelon imports ente red from Mexico, with a surge in volume in May. Reflecting yearround demand and higher prices, imports are expected to account for nearly 19 percent of domestic watermelon disappearance in 2007—up from 12 percent a decade ago.


On the long term outlook....


The average annual growth rate for vegetable and melon production value is forecast at 3 percent through 2017, with the value of vegetables expected to reach $27 billion by 2017. About three-fourths of the total value of U.S. vegetable production is expected to come from fresh-market crops.