National Retail Report - Sept. 5

Post Labor Day supermarket ads are heavy to the fruit category. From the USDA National Retail Report from Sept. 5. The USDA report also includes a new section on organic promotions.


Advertised Prices for Fruits & Vegetables at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets - 08/30 to 09/11

Fruits Dominate Post-Labor Day Fresh Produce Ads
Retailers resumed their back-to-school ads this week with kid-friendly items suitable for acked lunches and snacks. Some retailers even went so far as to suggest quick, budget-conscious, nutritious menus for breakfast, lunch and dinner built around their promotions. In addition, many ads highlighted the beginning of football season with a variety of beverages and snack items. Overall this week, fresh produce ads were down slightly compared to last week. Vegetable ads were down just over 11%, but fruit ads were up 4.5%. Fruit ads continued to be featured more heavily than vegetables and accounted for all 5 of he top featured items. Peaches, grapes, nectarines, plums, and cantaloupes were the top 5 featured items and collectively made up 60% of all fruit ads and more than 33% of total produce ads. The most notable changes this week were seen on: bananas, carrots, pears, corn and watermelons. Significant increases were seen on bananas, more than double compared to last week, and baby carrots (both conventional and organic), up 27%, as retailers featured these items often in back-to-school ads. Ads on Bartlett pears were also up ore than double compared to last week as many retailers took the opportunity to highlight the new crop. Both corn and whole, seedless watermelons were down significantly after being featured heavily last week for the Labor Day holiday.


Fruits as Percentage of Total Fruit Ads - September 5, 2008
Oranges,navel 1%
Nectarines 13%
Peaches 15%
Pineapple 5%
Pears, bartlett 11%
Mangoes 2%
Lemons 0%
Plums 9%
Strawberries 5%
Strawberries, organic 1%
Watermelon, mini 2%
Clementines 0%
Grapes,green/red 15%
Grapefruit, red 1%
Honeydew 3%
Limes 2%
Cantaloupe 8%
Blueberries 1%
Watermelon,
seedless 2%
Bananas, organic 0%
Apples, red delicious 0%
Avocadoes, hass 4%
Bananas 2%



Vegetables as Percentage of Total Vegetable Ads - September 5, 2008
Broccoli, organic 0%
Broccoli 4%
Beans, round green 4%
Tomatoes, grape 4%
Tomatoes on the vine 10%
Tomatoes 4%
Cabbage 3%
Carrots, baby organic 5%
Carrots, baby 7%
Asparagus 6%
Tomatoes, grape organic 4%
Celery 2%
Corn 4%
Cucumbers 6%
Lettuce, iceberg 2%
Lettuce, romaine 1%
Mushrooms, white 4%
Onions, yellow 3%
Sweet Potatoes 1%
Squash, zucchini 7%
Potatoes, russet 2%
Peppers, bell red 5%
Peppers, bell green 8%
Onions, sweet 4%

Adding comment periods for proposed rules to Fresh Talk calendar

Just a heads up that I will begin to add dates of Federal Register proposed rules and comment periods in the Fresh Talk calendar at the bottom of the page. This should help the industry keep track of what rules are in play....

Labels - still working on it

I've made quite a bit of progress in labeling past blog posts (see the results at the bottom of the bog). But there is more labeling to do. I think the label systems is a better way of looking at what has been covered over the past nearly two years of Fresh Talk's existence. Also be sure to check out all the Google gadgets I've recently added and give me any input on what you like and don't like at tkarst@thepacker.com or as a comment on this post.

California water bank planned

Like all ag producers in the arid Western U.S., Californians are no strangers to drought.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced plans to form a "water bank" to avoid shortages.

From a Sept. 5 Reuters report:

"California's state government is forming a "water bank" to buy water for local water agencies at risk of shortages next year should a current drought persist, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said on Thursday.

Schwarzenegger in June declared the most populous U.S. state to officially be in drought and declared nine counties in its farm-rich Central Valley to be in a state of emergency because water supplies were so low after two years of below-average rainfall.

California's water shortages have been compounded by a federal court order to limit pumping water from the state's San Joaquin-Sacramento River Delta to protect a species of fish. ..."

"California's 2009 Drought Water Bank will buy water primarily from local water agencies and farmers upstream of the delta and make it available for sale to public and private water systems expecting to run short of water next year.

The last time California's Department of Water Resources set up a water bank was in the early 1990s and the agency plans much more strict guidelines for its new effort, said Wendy Martin, the statewide drought coordinator for the agency."

Where has all the asparagus acreage gone?

Peru might be one place to look. From the USDA's Vegetable Acreage report of Sept. 4, statistics showing a dramatic decline in U.S. asparagus acreage: From the report:

Asparagus: Production from the 2008 asparagus crop is forecast at 952,000 cwt, down 15 percent from last year. Harvested area, at 32,200 acres, is down 16 percent from 2007. Fresh production of 718,000 cwt, is down 22 percent from a year ago. Processed production, at 11,700 tons, is up 18 percent from 2007. Asparagus for canning, at 7,100 tons, is up 20 percent from last year. Frozen asparagus production of 4,600 tons, is up 15 percent from 2007. Total value of the crop, at 79.7 million dollars, is down 23 percent from 2007. In California, a mostly excellent quality crop was reported throughout the growing season, however, acreage continues to decline due to competition from imports. In Michigan, the asparagus spears emerged in late April. Warm temperatures allowed crop development to proceed ahead of schedule. Harvest began in early May and continued at a slow pace for the
remainder of the month due to weather conditions. Purple spots were reported in some fields. Harvest was complete in some areas by mid-June.

TK: Asparagus acreage harvested in California for 2008 totaled just 14,500 acres, down from 20,000 acres last year and 22,500 acres two years ago.


From coverage in The Packer in March:

A dive in California asparagus acreage is largely a result of growers becoming more diversified in their offerings and shrinking asparagus production, or switching to a different crop entirely because asparagus is so expensive to manage, said Cherie Watte, executive director of the Stockton-based California Asparagus Commission.

Today, growers are opting to plant commodities like wheat, corn and alfalfa that are cheaper to produce -- as they are less labor intensive and don't require as much water -- and are a reliable source of income.

"The general costs of bringing asparagus in, doesn't warrant doing it any longer for some," said Leo Rolandelli, president of San Francisco-based Jacobs, Malcolm & Burtt Inc. "The mentality of the farmer right now is -- why do I want to put through the unknown? I don't see any relief."

James Paul, director of sales and marketing for Greg Paul Produce Sales Inc., Stockton, said converting to spring mix, lettuce, blueberries or selling land to real estate are more viable -- and common -- options for some asparagus farmers.

"Pretty soon, there's not going to be enough California growers to even be considered a niche," Paul said.

Watte offered a more optimistic approach to the transforming California asparagus industry.

"It's a permanent transition into a globally competitive economy," she said. "Acreage is going to stabilize and hopefully we can find that balance between supply and demand and what we need to produce to market."

TK: Couple of questions. Will country of origin labeling help reverse the trend of declining fresh acreage in Cali, and why is Michigan's asparagus acreage dropping at a much slower rate? Do school purchases of processed asparagus help? Any thots, readers...

McCain's acceptance speech

The intro to John McCain's speech on Thursday:




Highlights from the speech:

Walking on ice: the U.S. consumer

Although the economy grew surprisingly well in the second quarter, the signs are much less rosy for the third quarter. Which candidate will the American voter trust with the economy? The guy with seven houses or the Harvard educated elitist? That question could represent the essence of this election. Does McCain's promised slash and burn reform of spending reassure or trouble Americans? Does Obama's lack of track record in leadership put him in a vulnerable position? Here are a few headlines about our fragile consumer psyche in the wake of the steep fall in the Dow yesterday.

Dow plunges on warming of financial tsunami - Just what we don't want to hear. From the FT:

Weary investors in the United States received a further pummelling yesterday as data showed new unemployment claims at a near-five-year high last week, a leading fund manager gave warning that America faced a “financial tsunami” and key retailers released disappointing sales figures.

The mounting nervousness about America’s economy dragged down shares. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 344.60 points, or 3 per cent, to 11,188.20, and the S&P 500 closed down by 38.20 points, or 3.3 per cent, at 1,236.80 points.

Consumer spending slows

From the NYT:

'Consumer spending, responsible for the bulk of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), slowed in July as the effects of the government’s stimulus package tapered off.

The Commerce Department announced that consumer spending grew at a 0.2% rate in July. But on an inflation-adjusted basis, consumer spending dropped 0.4%, as high prices took their toll on the household budgets of strapped consumers.

"The temporary impact of the stimulus has passed, and it looks like consumer spending is on track to decline in real terms in the third quarter," John Ryding, the chief economist at RDQ Economics, told The New York Times. "It’s certainly a wake-up call to people who [Thursday] looked at the GDP report and said, ‘Hey, the economy grew by 3.3%, so everything’s O.K.’ "

Economy stays stuck as consumer cut back From the NYT:

The nation’s economy failed to pick up speed in August and the final days of July, as rising prices and a weak job market prompted consumers to reduce spending and shop at discount stores to try to conserve cash.

Economic activity stayed “weak, soft or subdued” across the country, according to the Federal Reserve Bank’s beige book, a regular snapshot of the economy. The latest edition of the survey, released on Wednesday, signaled that the economy spent the summer in a rut, with consumers feeling little relief from the government’s tax rebates.

Other headlines:

Coffee shops feel jolt

Wal-Mart follows shifts in consumer spending

New York: prepare to tighten your belts The NY governor is taking the lead in budget cutting; could McCain-Palin be next with this message?

"Te time to act is now."
Powerful words erupt from the mouth of one of the most powerful men in New York State.
Governor David Paterson is addressing the people of New York in a live televised speech. He says New York will be $26 million in debt within three years if things don't change. He says New York State must tighten its belt as its residents have, in order to recover from a recession.
He calls it a recession.
"For too long, we have done less with more, and paid more with less, " he says, "Your government is going to follow your lead."

TK: And by the way, the rest of the world isn't feeling so good either. From Bloomberg:

The euro declined to an 11-month low against the dollar on speculation a credit-market slump will push European economies into recession.

Japan adrift in recession - From The Standard:

Asia's largest economy was left rudderless again yesterday after Japan's prime minister quit suddenly, sparking concerns that free-market reforms will be put on the backburner as a recession looms.

Japanese stocks ended at a five- month low as the return of the revolving door politics of the recession-ridden 1990s left the country searching for its third prime minister in less than two years.

Whoever replaces Yasuo Fukuda will inherit the same problems he faced - a deadlocked parliament, a worsening economy, an ageing population and huge public debts.

TK: Check out this link to audio presentations by Steve Lutz, John Stanton and Desmond O'Rourke at the recent U.S. Apple Association marketing conference. All three talks tied in what is going on in the economy with impacts on produce department sales.