Argentina citrus semi annual 2008

All give and no take - that's Argentina's citrus trade outlook for 2008. Here is the link to the semi-annual report on Argentina citrus from the USDA FAS. No mention of the status of the quest by Argentina lemon exporters who are seeking access to the U.S. market. From the report summary:

Citrus production for calendar year (CY) 2008 will decrease nearly 21 percent to 2.47 million metric tons (MT) due to a frost in July 2007. High international prices are favoring exports over domestic consumption and processing, so exports are expected to fall only slightly. Imports continue to remain low as in previous years, with only seasonal purchases of grapefruit.


On trade....

CY 2008 citrus exports are forecast to decrease slightly relative to CY 2007 in all categories due to lower production. Despite the lower production, the packing houses will do their best to take advantage of the high international prices at expense of the processing sector and domestic consumption. Due to quality constraints, more fruit will be sent to the Russian Federation and other markets that accept a third quality standard.


TK: Another USDA FAS report on the Canadian agricultural situation covers possible changes to that country's origin labeling law, in addition to notes about ongoing WTO talks.

WTO: New life?

The all but forgotten WTO trade talks are making some credible news this week. A link from the World Trade Organization.

WTO agriculture negotiations resumed on Monday 26 May 2008 with a new round of talks on the latest revised draft “modalities” circulated a week earlier. In this meeting of the full membership, the talks’ chairperson, Ambassador Crawford Falconer of New Zealand, said a smaller group of 37 delegations representing all coalitions and major players would continue to negotiate during the week as members try to narrow their differences further.

In the next meeting of the full membership, on Friday 3O May, they would decide whether to continue into the week of 2 June, he said.

Poll verdict

The Fresh Talk poll question last week:

What message should be the main driver for increasing produce consumption?

The results:

Health - good for you	4 (25%)
Taste - appeal of the senses	6 (37%)
Convenience - making it an easy choice	6 (37%)

Votes so far: 16
Poll closed

TK: Why didn't "health - good for you" make a stronger showing in the poll? I wonder if it is because consumers already know or assume that fruits and vegetables are good for you. Selling taste or freshness, to me, is fraught with peril - can marketers or retailers actually deliver on the promise of unique taste or uncommon freshness? Convenience, to me, is a more straightforward sell - look at how we have made it easier for you, the consumer to take home (healthful and good tasting) produce.

Climate change - 10 to 14 days longer growing season

Not all the impacts from climate change are negative, including the assertion that growing seasons in temperate climates are now 10 to 14 days longer than 20 years ago. The USDA press release below succinctly describes - including a few observations about horticultural crops - the results of a comprehensive study on climate change and agriculture. From the release:

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) today released "Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3): The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States." The CCSP integrates the federal research efforts of 13 agencies on climate and global change. Today's report is one of the most extensive examinations of climate impacts on U.S. ecosystems. USDA is the lead agency for this report and coordinated its production as part of its commitment to CCSP.

"The report issued today provides practical information that will help land owners and resource managers make better decisions to address the risks of climate change," said Agriculture Chief Economist Joe Glauber.

The report was written by 38 authors from the universities, national laboratories, non-governmental organizations, and federal service. The report underwent expert peer review by 14 scientists through a Federal Advisory Committee formed by the USDA. The National Center for Atmospheric Research also coordinated in the production of the report. It is posted on the CCSP Web site at:

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/default.php .

The report finds that climate change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so. Specific findings include:

Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if precipitation decreases or becomes more variable.

Higher temperatures will negatively affect livestock. Warmer winters will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals.

Forests in the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska are already being affected by climate change with increases in the size and frequency of forest fires, insect outbreaks and tree mortality. These changes are expected to continue.

Much of the United States has experienced higher precipitation and streamflow, with decreased drought severity and duration, over the 20th century. The West and Southwest, however, are notable exceptions, and increased drought conditions have occurred in these regions.

Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2. Under projections reported in the assessment, weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicide applications.

There is a trend toward reduced mountain snowpack and earlier spring snowmelt runoff in the Western United States.

Horticultural crops (such as tomato, onion, and fruit) are more sensitive to climate change than grains and oilseed crops.

Young forests on fertile soils will achieve higher productivity from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nitrogen deposition and warmer temperatures will increase productivity in other types of forests where water is available.

Invasion by exotic grass species into arid lands will result from climate change, causing an increased fire frequency. Rivers and riparian systems in arid lands will be negatively impacted.

A continuation of the trend toward increased water use efficiency could help mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources.

The growing season has increased by 10 to 14 days over the last 19 years across the temperate latitudes. Species' distributions have also shifted.

The rapid rates of warming in the Arctic observed in recent decades, and projected for at least the next century, are dramatically reducing the snow and ice covers that provide denning and foraging habitat for polar bears.

USDA agencies are responding to the risks of climate change. For example, the Forest Service is incorporating climate change risks into National Forest Management Plans and is providing guidance to forest managers on how to respond and adapt to climate change. The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs. USDA's Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the crop insurance program.

For more information, please visit:

http://www.usda.gov/oce/global_change/

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/default.php

http://www.sap43.ucar.edu/ .