Chat - David Mitchell

David Mitchell is senior writer for The Packer and has written dozens of stories about the salmonella outbreak investigation. I caught up with him briefly this afternoon....

me: David Mitchell...thanks for taking time for a Fresh Talk chat. You have been busy with salmonella stories for several months now - including today. I've counted 32 in the library (so far)!

4:00 PM david.edward.mitchell: I don't think that includes all the Web-only stories. There were some weeks at the height of this thing when we had double-digit updates per week. It's been crazy.

4:01 PM me: Yes, you have been keeping up amazingly well, and as you say with Web-first coverage. What can you tell us about the briefing today? Do you think it will give the industry "closure"?

4:04 PM david.edward.mitchell: The short version is that CDC said the outbreak is over because the number of cases being reported is down to what they would see under normal circumstances. FDA has lifted its consumer advisory for Mexican hot peppers. Neither agency is ready to say that tomatoes weren't an issue. I don't know about closure because there are still a lot of unanswered questions, but I think this will be a big relief to a lot of people. I think the best news for the industry is that the mainstream media likely will move on to something else. Coverage already had died down the past few weeks.

4:06 PM me: Yes, on the tomato question. I've noticed no matter how reporters have phrased questions, the CDC/FDA continue to say tomatoes had the "strong association" with the outbreak in the early investigation. While they do acknowledge the evidence is not as strong, I don't think the tomato folks will be satisfied.

4:07 PM david.edward.mitchell: No, the tomato industry wants some sort of admission that tomatoes were never to blame, but we might never know if that's really the case.

4:10 PM me: The FDA has some questions to answer, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out during the Bush Administration and into the next one. Any thoughts whether the industry will effectively be able to influence the produce safety legislation brewing in Congress?

4:11 PM Warning - I'm officially putting you in "pundit mode"

4:13 PM david.edward.mitchell: Good question. Your public policy trip should be interesting next month. The produce industry associations say they want regulations, marketing orders, etc. The question is whether Congress will put something in place that makes sense.

4:17 PM me: David, I appreciate your time on this, a deadline Thursday. What else have you got on your plate for the couple of months? Hopefully no more salmonella outbreak stories, I'll wager

4:18 PM david.edward.mitchell: I'll be on the road to Ohio soon for the Know Your Market section. Somebody else will have to do the inevitable outbreak follow-up. You perhaps?

4:19 PM me: If duty calls...Thanks again and we'll catch up again soon...

david.edward.mitchell: No problem. Thanks, Tom

QA -What about tomatoes?

From the AP, a reporter's question: Was the early focus on tomatoes; could it be that investigators were asking the wrong thing? You hadn't seen this kind of outbreak with jalapenos before, but you had seen it with tomatoes. Could it be you had a signal about tomatoes, because you weren't asking a (better? couldn't understand this word) question?

Dr. Robert Tauxe of the CDC replies:

"I think that the initial investigation into this outbreak considered a wide range of different possibilities that had been described as a source of salmonella or that seemed likely at the time. The initial set of hypothesis-generating interviews was conduced that asked people, among other things, whether they had eaten green bell peppers, red bell peppers or other types of peppers. They did not go down an exhaustive list of all the other types of peppers. What was thought to be a relatively small proportion of those people answered yes to each of the peppers.

On the basis of that, the whole case control investigation was developed based on the most common foods that were reported by the people who had been ill, and that's one that identified a strong association with tomatoes and also did not find an association with either eating salsa or guacamole, which were were also popular foods there were mentioned commonly. I think if an association had been found with eating salsa or guacamole in the first investigation, attention might have focused more on all the ingredients of salsa or guacamole but since there was not a specific association with salsa or guacamole in that first investigation or a risk identified separately from that of tomatoes, that was where the investigation took us."

No CDC/FDA exoneration of tomatoes - what were you expecting?
Follow up AP question: So when you look at the totality of the evidence now, does the evidence on tomatoes seem to be relatively weaker?


Dr. Robert Tauxe continues:

"I think that the epidemiological and laboratory information is very strong for jalapeno peppers and also strong for the Serrano peppers, which means we are now talking about two different food vehicles with culture confirmations. The information about tomatoes was from the early study time period and it was more restricted in time and does not have confirmatory laboratory finding behind it."

Q and A- Acheson on industry traceabiity

One reporter (I didn't catch the name) at today's briefing (Main message: the outbreak is over) asked a question about industry traceback and what is needed. Should there be better record keeping requirements and Good Manufacturing recommendations?

David Acheson of FDA responds:

"The traceback requirements are complex, as you point out, we are exploring various options. The agency is planning a public meeting in the fall - October or November time frame - to consult further with the stakeholders and those who are interested in this.

I want to emphasize that during the traceback ... it was a question of the agency was going to industry establishments and obtaining records. Rarely were those records not available. That was not the problem. It was that the records were frequently maintained as paper records and weren't electronic. Not that all the industry is like that. Certainly elements of the industry maintaining electronic records, but the vast majority of the establishments we went to in this investigation weren't. That's why things like interoperability, so that one part of the chain connects to the next, consistency of naming so that as, for example, tomatoes move through the system they don't change their name, which was something we had to deal with. Those are the types of things we are looking for, a multifaceted approach around traceback."

CDC briefing scheduled

It seems that The Packer's Thursday's deadline always prompts late breaking newsworthy events. Here is one coming down the pike: A CDC Media Briefing on Preliminary salmonella Saintpaul outbreak data. Scheduled for 11 a.m. Central.

Here is the "what" and the "why"

What: Release of "Outbreak of Salmonella serotype Saintpaul Infections Associated with Multiple Produce Items - United States 2008" being published in today, Thursday August 28th's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Why: The new report is a preliminary summary of results from one of the largest salmonella outbreaks ever in the United States and the largest foodborne outbreaks in the last 10 years that is based on confirmed cases.

Developing...

Packer newsbreak - Aug. 28

This Aug. 28 edition of The Packer Newsbreak sponsored by:
Well-Pict Berries
Simonian Fruit Company &
Mexican Hass Avocado Importers Association

Need to catch up on recent news from The Packer? Check out our new Packer News Feed:

DLF International to move into citrus packing
VERO BEACH, Fla. - DLF International Inc.'s move into a packinghouse transforms the citrus marketer into a grower and packer. Go here for the story

Brazil may limit mango exports to U.S.
The dollar's depreciation, the Brazilian real's appreciation and high shipping costs mean Brazil's mango exporters may cut back sharply on volumes to the U.S. Go here for the story:


Duda vows faster, fresher lemon shipments
Oviedo, Fla.-based Duda Farm Fresh Foods Inc. plans to ship about 500,000 cartons of lemons from its new facility in Guemez, Mexico, this season. Go for the here story:


Mushroom prices offset lower sales volume
Fewer mushrooms were sold in the U.S. this season, but because of higher prices, the value of the crop was largely unchanged from a year ago. Go here for the story:


Loblaws promotion backs local produce
Brampton, Ontario-based Loblaw Cos. Ltd. is giving Canadians what they want - local produce. Go here for the story:

Potato predictions

Gary Lucier and company have delivered another fact filled Vegetable and Melon Outlook report. Find the link to the USDA ERS Vegetables and Melon report here. From the summary:

Total 2008 U.S. potato acreage is estimated to be down 8 percent from a year earlier due partly to competition for acreage with crops such as sugar beets or wheat in Idaho and corn or wheat in other growing areas. Fall-season area planted was the lowest since 1951. With lower acreage and tight storage supplies for both fresh and processing varieties, prices are expected to remain strong into early fall. The average farm price for all U.S. potatoes in July was 11.4 cents per pound—up 35 percent from a year earlier.

On peppers:

The popularity of chile (pungent) peppers has increased over the past 2 decades and imports of fresh chiles have grown along with domestic demand. In 2007, a record 563 million pounds of fresh-market chile peppers were imported—up 72 percent since 2000 and 188 percent since 1995. Through June, chile pepper imports were up 28 percent from a year earlier in 2008. About 98 percent of U.S. fresh-market chile pepper imports come from Mexico. For all chile peppers (fresh and processed), imports accounted for about 76 percent of U.S. consumption in 2007. In 2007, per capita use of chile peppers (on a fresh-weight basis) totaled 6.1 pounds—up nearly 1 pound from 2000.

On fresh vegetables:

Expected reductions in yield and area harvested for summer storage onions (the primary source of onions during the fall and winter) will combine to reduce production moderately from the 57.3 million hundredweight (cwt) of 2007. This crop will transition from the summer nonstorage onion crop, which is expected to total 10.4 million cwt—down 9 percent from a year earlier.Following a spring featuring relatively weak prices, fresh dry-bulb onion prices have slowly begun to strengthen this summer and are expected to average well above the lows of a year earlier into next spring. This summer, given lower area for harvest, fresh vegetable prices are expected to average slightly above the highs of a year ago despite relatively weak demand caused by the slowing economy.

On melons:

This summer (largely July-September), area for harvest of the three leading melon crops was estimated to be 109,900 acres—8 percent below a year earlier. Area is expected to be lower for each of the three melon crops. With area down 11 percent in Georgia due partly to drought, watermelon area is expected to drop 9 percent from a year earlier. With reduced market volume for all melons, prices have remained above a year earlier, with July wholesale prices for all melons averaging 42 percent higher.

Marketside photos

Arizona based Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group legend Luis has posted a couple of pictures of Wal-Mart's Marketside store on the discussion group - yet another reason for you to join the group. Here is what Luis says in a recent post:


Store is located on a side arterial street with fairly good traffic, close to relative new suburbs and positioned on a corner facing two convenient stores, one of which features a gas station. An intriguing feature of the store is the old drive-thru left over from the drug store which Walmart is likely to use as a take out. This is a feature not found on Fresh & Easies (that I know of). Talk about convenience, the American way. Developing..


Also, Luis linked to some coverage from FT on the concept. From that piece:

The design of Wal-Mart’s new small format Marketside stores, which will open in the Phoenix, Arizona area in coming weeks, marks a dramatic break with the branding of the rest of Wal-Mart’s more than 3,400 low-cost US stores.

Pictures of one of the first four new 15,000 sq ft stores, which Wal-Mart says are part of a pilot, have appeared on the website of the city of Mesa, southeast of Phoenix.

Later....

The first four stores have been built in former drugstore sites. Wal-Mart has indicated that the pilot will involve up to ten stores. It has acquired at least two other sites in the Phoenix area where it is planning to build new stores from scratch.

The new Wal-Mart stores will be competing directly with Tesco’s new Fresh & Easy small format stores. Tesco has opened 20 stores in the Phoenix area in less than a year, with another 16 sites announced so far.

TK: Luis wryly observes that Marketside is no "Jackalope" or ficticious creature after all:

All this activity focused on the big and the small, makes one wonder if the traditional supermarket footprint and assortment model is in danger of extinction. Perhaps an exaggeration but for some time, there has been evidence that it is under pressure while as noted on previous posts, the real state crunch and business failures may have freed small commercial retail space (i.e. strip malls etc), like urban swiss cheese in some places. It is going to be interesting to see what WalMart's experiment looks like.}

TK: Yes, it appears the traditional supermarket is under a tremendous amount of pressure, from dollar stores, Aldi, convenience marts, club stores, supercenters and now concepts like Fresh & Easy and Marketside. In any event, consumers are frequenting alliterative channels in increasing numbers and the fresh produce trade must adjust.