Saxby wins

Saxby Chambliss, ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, beat his Democrat challenger in a runoff election. Tara Smith of the American Farm Bureau Federation told me earlier today that losing Chambliss would be a significant setback for agriculture, and the produce industry can also be gratified with with his win.

Here is coverage of the runoff. From the piece in The Chicago Tribune:

Chambliss' win leaves just one seat still unfilled -- the one currently held by Minnesota Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, now facing a recount with challenger Al Franken. The recount is set to be finished by Friday, but legal challenges to some ballots will need to be resolved before a winner can be declared.

Still looking

I just added a feed from a blog called "Beyond pesticides." It goes without saying (strike that, I'm telling you anyway) that the various blogs featured with feeds on this space do not necessarily reflect my opinions. In fact, that is the point, to have the realm of ideas in the market place accessible the maximum degree. Find the blog feeds on the right side of the blog, near the bottom.

I've been making some calls on the FDA report on its Food Protection Plan and also some inquiries as to the outlook for agricultural trade and the ag labor situation. Stay tuned for coverage from The Packer on those issues...

By the way, I'm a little puzzled with the lack response on the poll question this week. Where is the passion for Fruits and Veggies: More Matters?

Also on my mind: does anyone know what percent of supermarket sales are accounted for by credit card transactions? Can't find it on the Web.

United Fresh: Extend GAPs comment period

The United Fresh Produce Association has asked the FDA to lengthen its comment period on revisions to Good Agricultural Practices. From www.regulations.gov:


November 25, 2008
Division of Dockets Management (HFA–305)
Food and Drug Administration
5630 Fishers Lane, rm. 1061
Rockville, MD 20852
Re: Docket No. FDA–2008–N–0455
Dear Sir or Madam:
The United Fresh Produce Association appreciates the opportunity to respond to FDA’s request for comments on potential revisions to the 1998 Guide to Minimize Microbial Food Safety Hazards for Fresh Fruits and Vegetables (GAPs).
The 1998 GAPs guidance has served the fresh produce industry well. In the decade since its publication by FDA, it has formed the basis of dozens of food safety educational and auditing programs. Its effectiveness is also apparent in the safety of the vast majority of fresh produce commodities that have never been linked to a foodborne illness. While we agree that the guidance can be updated to incorporate learnings from the 10 years since it was written, any changes should not be considered lightly. FDA has asked important questions in the Federal Register notice, and the answers to those questions must be considered across the diversity of commodities, growing regions and growing practices that make up “fresh produce”.
United Fresh Produce Association has been actively soliciting input from our member companies and allied associations. However, the industry is still dealing with the impact of the Salmonella Saintpaul outbreak linked to fresh produce this summer, as well as the harvest season that much of the U.S. fresh produce industry experiences this time of year.
Therefore, we respectfully request that FDA extend the comment period for 90 days (until March 31, 2009), so that the industry can provide the carefully considered answers and data that FDA has asked for.
United Fresh Produce Association is the pre-eminent trade association for the produce industry in managing critical public policy issues; shaping legislative and regulatory action; providing scientific and technical leadership in food safety, quality assurance, nutrition and health; and developing educational programs and business opportunities for members to better meet consumer needs for increased consumption of fresh produce.
Founded in 1904, United Fresh represents the interests of member companies from small family businesses to the largest international corporations throughout the global fresh produce supply chain, including growers, shippers, fresh-cut processors, wholesalers, distributors, retailers, foodservice operators, industry suppliers and allied associations.
Sincerely,
David E. Gombas, Ph.D.
Senior Vice President Food Safety and Technolology
United Fresh Produce Association

Ag trade prospects dim

Here is the link to the USDA Agricultural Trade Outlook report of Dec. 1. It is not good news for U.S. exporters or, for that matter, U.S. importers. From the summary page:

Fiscal 2009 agricultural exports are forecast at $98.5 billion, down $14.5 billion from August and $17.0 billion below record 2008 sales. The outlook for U.S. exports has changed dramatically with the expectation of global recession in 2009. The combination of weaker global demand, falling prices, and an appreciating dollar create a very unfavorable outlook for U.S. exports.

On imports....

Fiscal 2009 agricultural imports are lowered $2 billion from August but remain a record $81 billion. This reflects the slowest growth rate in many years. Despite the stronger dollar, and some relief from high oil prices, a slumping economy with rising unemployment and falling consumer spending is slowing import growth.


On horticultural products....

Fiscal 2009 horticultural product exports are lowered $1.2 billion from the August forecast, but remain a record $21.5 billion. This downward revision is mainly due to weaker demand and a stronger dollar. If realized, the $700-million increase will represent the slowest growth rate (3 percent) in the past six years by a large margin. Sales to Canada are expected to see little, if any, decline. Sales of most products to most countries should noticeably weaken. Like other high-value products and processed foods, weaker demand should have greater impact on volume than prices. Fresh fruits and vegetable are unchanged from the August forecast of $6 billion. Approximately two-thirds of these products are shipped to Canada and Mexico and enjoy significant market presence over the competition. The processed fruit and vegetable export forecast is lowered $300 million from August to $5.6 billion. Demand for U.S. fruit juice, dried fruit, and highly processed products is expected
to decrease, particularly in Europe, Japan, and Mexico as these consumers look for better values or curtail consumption. Tree nut exports are lowered $200 million from the August forecast to $3.6 billion, primarily due to a leveling off of EU demand for almonds.


On hort imports...

The growth of imported horticulture crops and products slows in 2009 as import volume is expected to remain flat. Prices, especially for processed fruit and vegetables, nuts, wine, and essential oils, are significantly higher. As a result, consumer demand for these and other horticulture products will weaken, but not enough to overcome higher prices which will raise the import bill by at least $1 billion in 2009. The expectation for sugar and tropical products is similar. Although import prices of coffee and cocoa beans have already started to decline, they are nonetheless projected to boost overall import value by $1 billion in 2009. The demand for rubber will be adversely affected by the depressed U.S. automobile market. Import volumes of coffee and cocoa beans and confections were down by double digits in 2008 as a result of escalating prices, but are not expected to face similar declines in 2009 as their prices ease. Overall, the long-run upward trend in import values for horticultural and tropical products will continue in 2009, albeit at a slower pace.

Fruit and Tree nut outlook - USDA ERS

Here is the link to the USDA ERS Fruit and tree nut outlook report of Nov. 25. Some highlights:

Tangerine production is also expected to be down in 2008/09 from the previous season. Florida, traditionally the major tangerine producer in the United States, is forecast to have a smaller crop, but California’s crop is expected to be larger. For the first time, California’s tangerine production will exceed Florida’s production, as California growers have increased the area and trees planted to various tangerine varieties, which are now coming into full, commercial production.

Later....


In California over the past several years, growers have been planting more acreage to various tangerine varieties as they shift production away from less profitable citrus fruit. Like the lemon trees in California, the tangerine trees were damaged by the 2007 freeze, affecting crop size. This season, the damaged trees have shown signs of recovering with an increase in the number of fruit per tree. This, along with new acreage coming into production, account for the record high crop forecast for the season. Tangerine season is from October 1 through May 1 for Florida and November 1 to May 15 for California. With the new-season crop just getting underway in Florida, grower prices for its fresh tangerines averaged $7.65 per 95-lb box (equivalent ontree) in October, considerably below the October average for the past three seasons, when prices ranged from $16.00 per box in 2007 to $18.10 per box in 2005. The bigger early variety orange crop is likely to have been a major factor in the lower price, especially since the fruit sizes were reported to be above average for the Fallglo, usually a positive factor on prices. Prices are likely to continue low as the
season progresses and the large tangerine supplies out of California enter the market.


Later...

Grower prices for fresh grapes fell 15 percent between this September and October and 25 percent this October over October 2007. The bigger grape crop this season has helped create big supplies in cold storage, likely contributing to the lower prices. Grape growers are likely to continue to face lower prices in November as demand for the California crop declines and new-season Chilean grapes begin entering the U.S. market.



In Florida, only 978,000 tons of grapefruit are expected to be produced this season, the smallest crop since the hurricane-damaged crops in 2004/05 and 2005/06. If realized, this would be the smallest crop since 1944/45, the two hurricane years excluded. Colored grapefruit—those with pink or red flesh—account for 70 percent of the crop, with the remainder being white flesh varieties. The number of grapefruit trees in Florida has been declining since the 1990s. There has been a rapid decline in the number of white grapefruit trees since the late 1990s as demand, especially in the domestic market has fallen. The number of colored variety trees began declining in mid-1990, in response to reduced demand for both fresh grapefruit and grapefruit juice. This season, the number of fruit per tree for white and colored grapefruit is below average, contributing to the lower number of 85-lb
boxes expected to be produced.

Top ten stories Dec. 2

Here is a scan of the Web and my list of my top ten stories of this morning:


10. Fruit and vegetables regulate the cell cycle to prevent cancer
This research presents evidence that dietary agents identified from fruits and vegetables can act to modulate the effects of deregulated cell cycle checkpoints. It is through this mechanism that cancer may be prevented by dietary choice.
Compounds from fruits and vegetables that appeared particularly noteworthy were apigenin (celery, parsley), curcumin (turmeric), epigallocatechin-3-gallate (green tea), resveratrol (red grapes, peanuts and berries), genistein (soybeans), and silymarin (milk thistle).

9. Shoppers leave Tesco for rivals at record rates

Previously unpublished “switching” data provided by the industry analysts TNS Worldpanel reveals that, in the 12 weeks to November 2, about £22 million of spending was switched directly from Tesco to Asda.

Just over £10 million more went from Tesco to Aldi, the German-owned discount retailer, in the period and almost as much again to Morrisons.

8. U.S. recession could last until 2010

The economy's yearlong downturn, officially declared a recession Monday, could last well into next year or even beyond, challenging the government to devise new responses as traditional methods show limited results.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the private body charged with determining the onset of a recession as well as its endpoint, said Monday that the current downturn met its definition of a recession: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

7. FDA reports on food supply safety

"Science and 21st century technologies help drive the FDA's efforts to transform our food safety efforts from the Food Protection Plan into a reality," said FDA Commissioner von Eschenbach" title="Andrew von Eschenbach" class="tpstyle">Andrew von Eschenbach. "Every day, the FDA is working with foreign countries, state and local governments, regulated industry and consumer groups to ensure the safety of the food supply."

6. McDonald's staple kicked of $1 menu

Say it ain't so...

Forget new numbers showing that the United States has been in a recession since December 2007.

Americans have another barometer of tough economic times: Beginning Monday, the price of a McDonald's double cheeseburger, a popular Dollar Menu staple, went up $1.19.

5. Pilgrim's Pride files for bankruptcy

Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., which became the nation’s largest poultry producer under the leadership of one of Texas’ most controversial political donors, filed for federal bankruptcy protection Monday.

4. Homeland security pick expected to reassert federal authority on immigration

As governor of Arizona, Janet Napolitano pushed the federal government to take more responsibility for illegal immigration. When it didn't do so, she signed a state law that filled the vacuum, establishing the nation's toughest penalties for companies that hire illegal workers.

3. More immigration losers

Virginia Republican Congressman Virgil Goode's narrow loss to Democrat Tom Perriello became official last week, and it caps another bad showing for immigration restrictionists. For the second straight election, incumbent Republicans who attempted to turn illegal immigration into a wedge issue fared poorly.

2. Media bombardment linked to ill effects during childhood

In a detailed look at nearly 30 years of research on how television, music, movies and other media affect the lives of children and adolescents, a new study released today found an array of negative health effects linked to greater use.

1. Tesco sales beat estimates

Tesco said it will “maintain rather than accelerate” the pace of store openings in the U.S., where it operates the Fresh & Easy chain. The chain’s first stores “have now moved strongly into like-for-like growth,” the statement shows.

“We are obviously being more cautious” in the U.S., Higginson said. “It’s a very tough environment.”


Other contenders:
Organic Alliance increases product line
Student debt levels portend rising default rate
Consumers desperate about debt
Credit worries shake commercial real estate
Japanese, Korea car sales plunge

Luawanna Hallstrom and other Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group threads

I was reading some new posts at the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group this morning and I noted that Luis had posted a story that profiled Luawanna Hallstrom, a long time leader in the fight for immigration reform.

Farmer's fight for immigration reform leads to honor - Luis From the piece:

OCEANSIDE -- Growing up on her family's Oceanside farm, Luawanna Hallstrom would often hear her Basque-American grandmother say: "Pray for the people that are working on this farm. They're the ones who suffer the most. They're the ones who work the hardest."
Today, Hallstrom is chief operations officer and general manager of the family business, Harry Singh & Sons. Those words buoy her passion for immigrationreform, one of the things that led to her being named 2008 Farmer of the Year by the San Diego County Farm Bureau.

Swindled: the dark history of food fraud - Luis

Also check out threads on credit card sales in supermarkets, the FDA's report card on its food protection plan and immigrants are engines of prosperity.