And now for something entirely different

Fizzy Fruit is making a big splash, here in a USA Today feature and elsewhere on the Web. The questions abound: will it make sales of non fizzy fruit decrease? What sad state of affairs have we come to when we rely on a gimmick to boost fruit sales, even if it is real fruit with no added sugar?

With a 5 ounce cup priced at $2.49 at 7-11 and $1.88 at select Wal-Marts, this treat is not cheap. We need some Fizzy Fruit on the counter OBF to make a staff evaluation of the "Pop Rocks of this generation."

Freeze frees f.o.b.s

Wow.

The USDA reported that the f.o.b. for California first grade navel oranges, size 72s, was $32 per carton today, compared with $11-14 per carton last Friday. Shippers first grade size 95s lemons were $36.50-37 per carton, up from $18-25 per carton on Friday.

The freeze in California and the cold that extends into Mexico has had a bullish impact on f.o.b. prices in general today. See the commodity shipping points highlight link to the right.

Sellers of virtually all fruits and veggies believe it is their commodity that stands to benefit from the heavy losses in California. They can't all be right.

Six of one

This cold snap grabbing headlines in California is also turbocharging prices for a variety of fresh produce items from Mexico. Cucumbers, squash and tomatoes were higher today. One watermelon shipper in Nogales told me today the seedless market was very secure at elevated price levels, and cool weather in Mexico (note the Sinaloa weather link on the right) would slow harvest over the next few days.

However, he brought up a counterpoint to the cold snap equals higher prices logic. The same cold weather that can constrict supply can also put its foot on the throat of demand. When consumers - particularly in the Northeast - stay home and out of the winter cold, they are also not buying produce.

Just as buyers watch the temps and radar for the growing fields, marketers scope out the next blast of winter barreling down on New York and Philly.

Six of one and half dozen of the other.

The Spanish connection

This news from just a few days ago talks about what has been a building crisis for Spanish citrus marketers. The lack of market opportunities was so bad that Intercitrus, trade organization for Spain's citrus growers, requested the government to pay for the removal of 400,000 metric tons of oranges and clementines from the market.

Spain's oranges can be sent to the U.S. after cold treatment, USDA regulations say.

How the California freeze changes Spain's outlook will be interesting to watch. This chart showing U.S. orange imports doesn't convince me that it will be easy to cover California's shortfall -- especially considering that Southern Hemisphere volume of navels won't be in play at all this winter.

Moving on up

Citrus prices at Hunts Point wholesale market in New York City were closely watched this morning. Unlike the expression that a "watched pot never boils," the citrus market is already bubbling.

I called the New York market news office and got these quotes. California first grade lemons were $29-30 per carton on 95s, up from $22-25 per carton on Friday. California first grade navels were trading at Hunts Point today at $30-32 per carton, up from $22-24 per carton on Friday.

Traders say the freeze-induced shortage of California citrus will be made up by the market in some fashion. The resourcefulness of traders - whether that means citrus from Spain, Morocco, Korea, or Israel - is bound to surprise us.

Speaking of freezes, our offices here in Lenexa are bone-chillingly cold today because of a furnace malfunction. We walked in to 48 degree temps this a.m. and it hasn't got much better by noon. The nation's midsection is in the icy grasp of Old Man Winter - uggh.

California's loss

How will the lack of citrus from California impact retail promotions this winter? That's a question that is worth asking in view of the continued cold in the West Coast citrus belt. Winners could be Florida and Texas citrus, apples, pears, imported citrus and Chilean fruit. Imported melons are a nonstarter for retail promotions, with prices nudging $20 in south Florida. Watch for The Packer's Jim Offner's coverage on collateral impact in the produce department.

Check out the weather links on the right; South Texas is getting a little chill, too, with temps in the 30s last night in Harlingen.

Chile's season seems to be going splendidly, but one fly in the ointment could be a change in the effective date for California's desert grape marketing order. The effective date of the marketing order determines the start of mandatory inspections for Chilean grape imports upon arrival to the U.S. Many exporters believe it is too risky to ship to the U.S. when the marketing order is in effect.

David Holzworth, lawyer for Chile's exporters, told me today that he anticipates that if the USDA were to make a decision on an interim rule to change the effective date of the marketing order for California desert grapes this season, it would have to be soon. California grape growers want to scoot the date up to April 1 from April 2o, to prevent what they say are poorer quality grapes from Chile being sold from storage in their shipping season.

Holzworth said Chile would likely challenge any change in the date, even if it is not moved up a full 20 days.

"If it is going to be the April Fool's date, then I would think they would want at least 60 days of lead time,' he said. That would mean Feb. 1 would be the date of the final rule, but Holzworth said he has no indication from the USDA "one way or the other" about what the agency will do.