A ready market

Japan will be buying significantly more U.S. oranges and grapefruit this season, according to a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
From the Nov. 20 report:

On oranges....

California orange groves were significantly damaged by freezing temperatures in the 2006/07 season and Japanese sales of U.S. oranges reached only 2.6 million cartons (44,500 metric tons). Post estimates the new crop U.S. orange sales to recover to the pre-freeze sales level of approximately 5 million cartons (85,000 metric tons). According to Japanese trade sources, the new crop California Navels are arriving Japan in late November, which signifies the start of U.S. orange sales for the new season. Groves completely recovered from the last season’s freeze and it has been reported that the new crop has many high quality fruits. Import prices are expected to be higher in this season since there are many high quality fruit, according to Tokyo citrus traders.


On grapefruit....

The sales of Florida grapefruit have been recovering very quickly in the Japanese market since the hurricanes hit Florida citrus growing regions in 2004 and 2005. Japanese traders expect sales of 9 million cartons (approximately 153,000 metric tons) in the 2007/08 season, which will be recovering almost 90 percent from the prior season to pre-hurricane levels. The first shipment of new crop grapefruit left Florida on September 24 with a load of 7,000 cartons (approximately 119 metric tons) and is expected to arrive in Japan by early November, according to Japanese citrus traders. The fruit quality of the new crop is good and the fruit is juicy. Fruit size in general this season is relatively small due largely to the short rainfalls in August and September in the growing regions. This season’s first shipment to Japan also was about one month later than the previous season. The Florida Department of Citrus schedules a trade seminar for Japanese grapefruit buyers, users and media people in early November and this event truly signifies the start of Florida grapefruit sales promotions in Japan. The sales in early season are relatively slow but earlycrop fruit are largely used as a gift pack during Japan’s traditional year-end gift giving season. Florida grapefruit sales will come in full force in the New Year when the flavor of grapefruit improves with higher sugar content and balanced acid levels. It is also important to note that domestic citrus products such as unshu mikan tangerines dominate the Japanese citrus market until late January. Japanese citrus traders begin making their full sales pitch to market Florida grapefruit in February. The sales target is approximately 2 million cartons (metric tons) each month until May, according to traders at Tokyo Ohta Fresh Produce Market.

South Africa citrus prospects

Like Australia, South Africa has also been hit by a drought that has limited its citrus potential. Here is the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service assessment of South Africa's citrus outlook:


South Africa’s is expected citrus 2006/07 fruit production to decrease by 5.7 percent from last year to 1.65 million MT because of the carry-over effect of the drought in 2006. However, the 2007/8, production will increase to return to a more average volume . In 2006/07, South Africa’s local consumption for fresh citrus products is expected to increase by 19 percent as farmers are increasing their volume for sale in the local markets to overcome expected lower export prices. Exports are expected to decrease by 16 percent to total 1.10 million MT, due to lower total production and increase intent of growers to sell to the local market. The producers are uncertain about the export prices, and speculate about general improved export prices because of Spain’s lower total production and late harvest caused by heavy rains. Also, they are challenged by potential lower prices as posed by the Middle East and Europe’s- high stock volumes. In a Citrus Forum meeting held on October 23, 2007, stakeholders raised concerns about future shipping problems and congestions at the harbors because of increasing export volumes and unchanging capacity of local harbors. Quality standards will be prioritized to prepare for new markets like Russia and China. Market access issues experienced by South African citrus farmers in 2007 were barriers to trade such as high import tariffs to Iran South Korea and India markets, and SPS issues - The South African government received 18 citrus blackspot (CBS) disease reports from the EU in October this year.


On the future changes to the citrus industry in South Africa:

The South African citrus industry indicates that they are challenged by the current regulatory framework, especially the land policy, which is expected to transfer about 30 percent of farm land to the previously disadvantaged black farmers by 2015. The government received a total 79,696 land claims. The implementation of this new strategy already translated in about 1,465 land claims (96 percent) processed in 2006. From the 6,986 outstanding claims outstanding, 86 percent is agricultural land. A Majority of the citrus producing land are under the claims, which constrain farmers to invest on the land, considering that it takes a fruit tree about 15 to 30 years to mature and produce a crop.

Winter storm on its way?

That's the skinny from the folks at AccuWeather. From an email I just received:

State College, Pa. -- November 27, 2007 -- AccuWeather.com meteorologist Henry Margusity reports in his blog that models show a trend in the direction of a storm this weekend. He suggests that a wave will come out of the Southwest and be captured by the northern branch digging into the East with the result of a major storm blowing up along the coast.
The air mass ahead of the storm will be very cold, so while some places will have rain, it may end up snowing and ice for several hours prior to any change over to rain. This will be the case for areas from the upper Tennessee Valley into Virginia and perhaps western North Carolina where cold air will be dammed-up.
“The extreme cold catching up to the storm has me concerned that some people will end up having several hours of extreme weather.” Margusity said. “I hate to use the "blizzard" word, but that is the extreme (potential) of the storm.”
Regardless, Margusity advises folks from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic and New England and Great Lakes to pay close attention to the storm because he believes this will be the first big snowstorm of the season.

Grape market look in

U.S. farm policy - trade impacts

Some solid presentations about farm policy and trade are available from this Web site. The event was the Nov. 15-16 conference called : "DOMESTIC AND TRADE IMPACTS OF U.S. FARM POLICY:FUTURE DIRECTIONS AND CHALLENGES." Held in D.C., it offers some perspective on fruit and vegetable planting restrictions, the farm bill, direct payments, food aid, the impact of bio fuels on trade and other timely topics.

Retail roundup 11/28 to 12/4 - Banana time

When in doubt, go bananas. That is apparently the mantra for produce merchandisers in suburban Kansas City this week, who made banana, oranges and blueberries prominent features in this week's food ads. Here are produce items featured this week:


Dillons Nov. 28 to Dec. 4
Golden ripe bananas: 2 lbs 88 cents (front page)
New crop premium fuji, braeburn, cameo, pink lady or jonagold apples: $1.69/lb
Large ripe avocados: 4 for $5
California cuties clementines: $6.99/5lb box
Kroger grape tomatoes: 2 pints for $5
Red seedless grapes: $1.99/lb
Colorado sweet yellow onions: 88 cents/lb
Kroger Idaho russet potatoes: 2 for $5
Fresh green cabbage: 2 lbs for 88 cents
Private Selection Organic salads: 2 for $6


Hen House Nov. 28 to Dec. 4
Driscolls blueberries: Imported from Argentina: 2 for $4/4.4 oz. package (front page)
Large, seedless and sweet navel oranges: 5 for $1 (front page)
Apple of the Week: Pacific Rose apples from Westcott Farms in Washington: $1.99/lb
Satsuma mandarins: $5.49/5-lb box: from Plaquemines Parish, Belle Chasse, La. by Ben Sr. and Ben Jr. Becnel.
Golden ripe pineapple: $3.99 each
Washington U.S. No. 1 Russet potatoes: 2 lbs for $1
Peruvian large sweet onions: 79 cents/lb
Dole Classic Iceberg mix: $1.18/1-pound bag


Price Chopper Nov. 28 to Dec. 4
Califorina navels: $1.49 for 4-lb bag (front)
Dole Classic Iceberg salad: $1.29/16 oz. package
Dulcinea Pure Heart Seedless Watermelons: $3.99 each
Green Giant baby cut carrots: $1.29/1-lb bag
Green Giant whole mushrooms: $1.29/lb
Sonya apples: $1.69/lb
Santa Sweet grape tomatoes; 2 for $4 (12 oz. package)
Tommy Atkins mangoes: 99 cents each
Large Russet baking potatoes: 2 lbs for $1
New Star spinach: 2 for $4/10-oz package)
Eat Smart Vegetable tray: $8.99/36 ounces


HyVee Nov. 28 to Dec 4
Bananas: 29 cents/lb (front page)
Driscolls raspberries: 2 for $4 (6 oz. package)
Fresh asparagus: $2.99/lb
Pro-Health microwavable russet potatoes: 3 for $2
Monterey sliced white mushrooms: $1.48
Texas Rio Star grapefruit: 3 for $1
Santa Sweet grape tomatoes: 2 for $4
Stemilt Anjou or Bartlett pears: 98 cents/lb
Dole Classic salad or cole slaw mix: 99 cents/16-oz. package
California navel oranges; $3.48 per 5-lb bag
DiLusso 7-layer salad: $3.99
Monterey whole or sliced baby bella mushrooms: $1.88/8 oz. package
Pom Wonderful pomegranates: 3 for $5
Dole celery hearts: $2.49
Bolthouse Farms 100% juice or smoothies: 2 for $5
Grimmway Farms carrot chips: 99 cents/ 16 oz. package
Dole Very Veggie Tray: $8.99/40 oz.
Midwest grown Haralson apples: $1.38'lb
Sunkist almond accents: $2.99
Popeye spinach: 2 for $4 (10oz package)
Stemilt pinata apples: $1.77/lb

Frankel to UPGA

The Packer's David Mitchell is developing coverage on this breaking story.... From the United Potato Growers of America:

LEE FRANKEL TO LEAD UNITED POTATO GROWERS OF AMERICA

SALT LAKE CITY November 26, 2007—United Potato Growers of America today announced that Lee Frankel will lead the organization as president and chief executive officer of the national federated agricultural cooperative headquartered in Salt Lake City. Frankel will take the helm as of January 2.

Frankel holds a bachelor of arts in economics and a masters of arts in International Trade and Agricultural Policy from Stanford University. He has served the past 11 years as president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, Nogales, Arizona. Frankel worked previously for five years as an international trade analyst with the U.S. International Trade Commission.

“UPGA’s CEO Search Committee has reviewed several candidates over the past several months and has taken great care to select the right individual with proven leadership abilities and a solid track record. Lee will be a great complement to our professional staff at headquarters,” said Albert Wada, UPGA chairman.

About United Potato Growers of America
United Potato Growers of America was formed in March 2005 by growers to balance supply to consumer demand. UPGA’s mission is to reverse years of declining and unprofitable prices for growers, which have caused many growers to go out of business. At this time, UPGA members are in California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Klamath Basin (on the border of California-Oregon), Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin. United Potato Growers of Canada was formed last year in conjunction with UPGA.

UPGA was created under the provisions of the Capper-Volstead Act that was enacted in 1922 by Congress to allow growers to work collectively to market their products. UPGA’s vision is to provide a consistent supply of high quality potatoes at a reasonable price for everyone including the consumer. Call UPGA’s national office at (801) 517-9000 or visit www.unitedpotatousa.com to learn more.


TK: One distributor in Nogales said that replacing Frankel will not be easy. With his knowledge of the workings of Washington D.C. and his acquired knowledge of the West Mexico industry, Frankel will be missed. Though the West Mexico deal has had three tough years in a row, the distributor indicated Frankel was well-appreciated for what he brought to the industry.


Here is the Packer 25 feature on Frankel from March 2006.


Lee Frankel, Fresh Produce Association of the Americas
By Bryan Scribner
In mid-September of 2004, a Medfly find in Tijuana threatened 100% inspection of host material coming across the Nogales, Ariz., border.
That could have subjected 300 to 400 loads of tomatoes, and hundreds of loads of other commodities from Mexico, to inspection and fruit cutting every day.
It just wasn't doable with 80 bays and the capacity to unload six trucks at a time at the border.
The biggest obstacle: Getting U.S. and Mexican officials to work together in forming a solution, said Bill Sykes, owner of The Sykes Co., Nogales, and chairman of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.
Sykes, chairman at the time, said he attributes much of that achievement to Lee Frankel, president of Nogales-based FPAA.
"For a time there, I thought that the border was going to be completely closed," he said. "But Lee did it. He got together with the right people and got them talking. It was a lot of work, but they got it done."
By Nov. 5 of that year, the inspection rate whittled to one in 20 shipments.
One of Frankel's best qualities is his ability to get people talking and to bridge communication gaps, Sykes said. He also has a valuable understanding of government.
In Washington, D.C., and elsewhere, Frankel gets things done right and in a timely manner, said Jerry Wagner, sales manager at Farmer's Best International LLC, Nogales.
When he talks to Frankel, Wagner said, "The first thing I do is I ask him if he's happy because I don't want him to leave."
At the association level, Frankel said his quest is to anticipate problems that pose a future threat to the fresh produce industry in Mexico. He strives to make sure the 120 members of FPAA are prepared to succeed as the business environment evolves.
It's not always glamorous, he said.
"The person that you rescue from being drowned is much more grateful than all the people you've saved by putting a decent, secure fence around the swimming pool so people don't fall in," he said.
A potential slip up could have occurred from the original draft of the Bioterrorism Act of 2002, something Frankel said would have devastated some Mexican growing operations, increased security risks, increased costs and caused significant produce damage.
Frankel was able to work with the U.S., Canadian and Mexican governments, along with associations south of the border, to help form a coalition that would guide the drafting of more workable rules.
But Frankel's work is not just about downgrading a forest fire into a camp fire. He also works to improve the operations and profitability of FPAA members.
In early January 2005, the Nogales Mariposa Port of Entry opened for Sunday crossings.
Although there was extreme opposition from some brokers, for some FPAA members, it was an essential tool to manage inventories and serve top tier retail, Frankel said.
To prevent future mistakes -- and to make sure members don't get caught off guard -- the ultimate goal of one of the FPAA's newest initiatives is to learn from others.
Specifically, the association must share information and resources with importers in Texas and California because at the end of the day, "No matter how much each local region likes to pride itself on service, product availability, different positive steps it's taking … a U.S. consumer, even a U.S. retailer or restaurant chain, they just see Produce from Mexico," he said.
"If there's a problem in one place in Mexico, it's a problem for all of Mexico."
With that consequence in mind, and with the call from his members to form a communication blanket to more closely align the efforts of those at the Mexican ports, Frankel is working to further establish relations with importers in Texas and San Diego.
After all, he said, the market share in Nogales will decline over time, and it makes sense to coordinate with those at other border crossings.
On Jan. 1, a San Diego division of FPAA became operational. While there is no staff or office, Frankel acts as the division's liaison, traveling from Tucson, Ariz., to San Diego to visit with importers, retail chains and wholesalers.
The division seeks to improve public relations, cold chain management, food safety, produce quality, certification requirements and convey production estimates, Frankel said.
In San Diego, the route to partnership formation was made easier through commonality of product and better understanding of importer operations, Frankel said.
Geographical and "cultural" differences limited the formation of a partnership with Texas importers, but Frankel said he hoped a similar division would be formed there in about a year.
"We need to pull together the importers from all across the border and try and take care of the problems more or less all at once," he said.
More to the Story
* Lee Frankel, president of the Nogales, Ariz.-based Fresh Produce Association of the Americas.
* Bio: Frankel, 38, received a bachelor's degree in quantitative economics from Stanford University, where he also completed a master's degree program in agricultural economics and international trade.
His first job was with the U.S. International Trade Commission, Washington, D.C. There, he was a fruit and vegetable international trade analyst for about five years.
In 1996, Frankel joined FPAA as managerial officer, a title that changed to president about two months after he started.
Frankel has served on the Produce for Better Health Foundation board, and he has been on government relations and international trade committees for the Produce Marketing Association and United Fresh Fruit & Vegetable Association. He also has been a board member of the United Agribusiness League.
* PERSONAL: Frankel enjoys bicycle racing, something he's been doing competitively for about 14 years. He participates in about four to five national or regional events each year.
He and his wife of five years, Lorena, are raising twin 18-year-old girls.

Traceability initiative

While we wait for more details on the traceability initiative (traceability with teeth?) from PMA, United and CPMA - the first meeting of is reportedly set for Jan. 9 in Atlanta - here is a note from a FQcode about an upcoming speech by at the Southern Hemisphere Congress:

From FQcode:

This year, FQcode, has been invited to speak about one of its more important expertise, "Adding value to supply chain" given its wide experience in developing and implementing fresh produce management and traceability solutions. It will explain there, how traceability has become a main tool in order to get product differentiation into the supply chain.
FQcode traceability experience and expertise, is reflected on its more than 40 packinghouses over this region tracing their production and implementing FQcode's TRUE TRACEABILITY™ solution. They proves how this solution allows them to automate and have more control over operation, enhance food safety and limit product recall potential, protecting their brands.
Southern Hemisphere Congress is organized by Eurofruit Magazine and is specialized in international fresh produce business, joining every year, at the main southern cities. This year, will be on 28-30 November, at Hilton Hotel Buenos Aires.
If you want to learn more about traceability,
-Visit FQcode stand at Congress from November 28 till 30 at Hilton Hotel Buenos Aires.-Ask our tracebility expert, Martin Kupferman (mkupferman@FQcode.com), and he will reply quickly.