Fresh Produce Discussion Blog

Created by The Packer's National Editor Tom Karst

Saturday, October 4, 2008

FMI on the rescue package

From FMI on Friday:


Arlington, VA — October 3, 2008 — Tim Hammonds, president and CEO of the Food Marketing Institute, issued this statement after President Bush signed the economic rescue package into law this afternoon.



“FMI congratulates all those who worked so hard to pass the financial rescue package today and the President who signed it so quickly. This was absolutely necessary to prevent our financial institutions from grinding to a halt. Every business, large and small, in communities all across America were seeing lines of credit dry up and their costs of borrowing begin to spiral out of control. These businesses and the consumers they serve can breathe a welcome sigh of relief thanks to this big step toward restoring confidence in our financial institutions.”

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Monday, September 29, 2008

Putnam: financial hurricane demands answer

From the office of Rep. Adam Putnam:

The House of Representatives today failed to pass the economic rescue legislation. Prior to the vote, Congressman Putnam spoke on the Floor of the House on why he felt this legislation needed to be passed. The complete text of his remarks is below.

PUTNAM: Thank you, Madam Speaker. I thank the gentleman from Alabama for yielding. There's an old Chinese proverb: ‘may you live in interesting times.’ These are interesting and remarkable times. The past two weeks we’ve seen the five largest investment banks in the United States be reduced to two. Last week the largest bank in the United States failed. Over 2,000 branches spread out across this country, retail outlets, where ordinary Americans, downtown merchants, farmers, students, seniors, savers relied on that bank to meet their needs. It failed last week.

This morning another major bank on the brink of collapse was purchased for $1 a share. Last week, a money market fund announced that for the first time they had broken the buck, they could not guarantee that every dollar that you put into that money market account would be retrievable on your request. And a second major money market account announced they were closing and not accepting any new deposits for fear of the same thing happening to them.

Now, when you get beyond credit swaps and derivatives and all these complicated things that obviously not even the Wall Street traders who were engaging in them understood, and start talking about the bank on the corner failing, and the money market funds where every small business holds their payroll, where every saver is trying to ring out an extra half a point of interest, you have reached main street.

You are now standing at the brink of a financial collapse that is well beyond the financial capitals of the world. And I also failed to mention, since we are not just talking about an American problem, that this weekend alone three of the largest banks in Europe either failed or were nationalized. So we live in interesting times.

And we are watching one domino after another fall that are the pillars of our financial system here in the United States.

Now, I tried to think of the right analogy and it dawned on me that, you know, being from Florida we get a lot of hurricanes. And in 2004 we had three hurricanes come across central Florida, my home. In nine weeks. Bam-bam-bam. And then a year later we watched a storm come across Florida and build in the Gulf and it got bigger and bigger and moved faster and faster and had a bull's-eye on New Orleans. And I, like a lot of Americans, wondered why more people weren't leaving? Why more people weren't heeding the warnings that were so obvious from the weather map of what was building into a monster in the Gulf of Mexico. If you ever wondered why people don't get out of the way of an oncoming storm, a hurricane that is barreling down on top of you, despite days of notice, despite satellite imagery, despite all of the best advancements in communications, then you have to apply that same analogy to what we are seeing now.

One bank after another failing, rolling out of New York, rolling out of Brussels, out of London, out of these places that seem so foreign into our Main Streets, into our merchant associations, into our farmer cooperatives. You're watching this happen, so how could you as a Member of Congress in seeing that roll across the countryside, not do everything in your power to prevent it?

Now, the previous speaker made an outstanding reference to the fact that congress is known for producing fairly bad legislation in the aftermath of a crisis. What we have before us today is an attempt to avert that crisis and all of the rushed legislation that would follow a collapse, the likes of which we have not seen in this country since the 1930s.

This bill is a substantially different bill than what Secretary Paulson and the president sent up here a week ago.

It is a better bill than what they sent up here, and it is a bipartisan bill. We talked about how remarkable these times are.

Last week, two candidates who have spent two years, two difficult, hard fought years, looking for a way to beat the other one to become the next President of the United states, both hit the pause button and released a joint statement of principles in agreement that Congress needs to act to avert a financial collapse.

This body has come together to produce a bill that is distasteful to most. That required both sides to give up many of the individual items that they thought would be helpful: pro-growth capital gains policies that Republicans thought would be helpful. Affordable housing trust funds issues that the Democrats thought would be helpful. Both gone from the draft of this bill.

And instead focusing on the central goal which is to avert the financial collapse that all of the experts and all of the evidence and all of the bank failures and all of the money market closings indicate is very possible if Congress doesn't act.

So by virtue of Congress coming together and improving the Paulson plan, by virtue of the people's elected representatives having the opportunity to weigh in on this issue, and to hash out these problems and to work around the clock on the weekends, to make this a better bill, it will not cost $700 billion as has been widely reported in the original draft, for a variety of reasons: the potential upside of the assets that the government is buying. The insurance program. The most recent intervention that this Congress passed in the GSEs was estimated at $300 billion in costs. It was actually scored at $25 billion in cost. So it's important that the taxpayers understand that because the Congress has moved forward on this issue, it will be a smaller tab for the taxpayer. But it will be an effective intervention to restore the confidence necessary to avoid the kind of panic that we haven't seen in generations in this country.

This is no longer the Paulson-President's plan. Because of the work that Chairman Frank and the Republican negotiators have done, this is a better bill. Better for the taxpayer. No golden parachutes for CEOs who drive their companies into the ground and walk away with millions. None of the special interest projects that concerned so many people on our side. But most importantly the evidence is overwhelming that we must act.

It is always difficult to compile legislation this complex under such a short time frame. We are up against a short time frame because of the markets, because of the holidays, because of the natural calendar and our political cycle. The only thing worse than that is the kind of legislation that will result in the aftermath of the debris that remains after a financial collapse.

And so I stand here today willing to support this bipartisan compromise that has been hashed out over these last several days, that is such an improvement over what we began a week ago, but is so important to the financial architecture – not just of investment firms and speculators and people who got too-cute-by-half with someone else's money, but someone who is willing to support this bill because it is so important to the seniors, the savers, the merchants, and the farmers who need to understand that the confidence will be there in their banking system, that they don't have to withdraw their funds and stick them under the mattress. That our country's free market system is still the greatest in the world and that this intervention will allow those credit markets to unlock, and we'll be able to unwind and deleverage this marketplace and move forward together.

So I compliment my Chairman. I compliment our Republican negotiators, Mr. Blunt and Mr. Cantor, and I urge my colleagues to support this bill. I yield back my time.

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Largest drop ever

There is no "sugar coating" this, right? What does this mean for the operations and strategic planning for produce industry companies that rely on the credit markets, whether multi-national grower shipper or national and international retailer? Here's a nugget to grab hold of: it is always darkest before the dawn. From the AP:


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street's worst fears came to pass Monday, when the government's financial bailout plan failed in Congress and stocks plunged precipitously -- hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 780 points in their largest one-day point drop ever. Credit markets, whose turmoil helped feed the stock market's angst, froze up further amid the growing belief that the country is headed into a spreading credit and economic crisis.

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Stock market swoon and consumer behavior

USA Today's coverage of the failed vote on the bailout is here. Meanwhile, Retail Week has this coverage about impact of a slowing economy in the UK on consumers there. Is 2009 the year of the hard discounter? It would appear to be so:


The survey by Mintel found that in the past 12 months, 41 per cent of shoppers have switched to cheaper brands and three in 10 (34 per cent) have cut down on buying from premium ranges, such as Tesco Finest and Sainsbury's Taste the Difference.

"It is clear that shoppers are now really feeling the pinch and beginning to trade down when buying food," said Mintel director of retail research Richard Perks. "During the recent years of unprecedented prosperity in Britain, we saw a very noticeable shift towards premium, upmarket food, with shoppers buying more luxurious ready meals and exotic produce. But in the space of just a few months, this trend has already started to be reversed."

The survey also found that two thirds (66 per cent) of shoppers now look for promotions more often than they did a year ago, while 29 per cent spend more time comparing prices in the supermarket.

The rise of discounters such as Aldi and Lidl is also apparent, with 31 per cent of shoppers using the value supermarkets more than they used to.

"The major battle of this recession will be the fight between the hard discounters and the market leading superstores," said Perks. "Asda is focusing on its entry level prices and Tesco has just launched an ultra low priced range called Market Value. With this shift they are making it very clear that they will not just lie back and watch their market share being whittled away by the likes of Lidl and Aldi."

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TARP - a perfect acronym

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off by several hundred points again today as investors wait on news from Washington on the bailout plan. At the Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group this morning, Luis posts this story from The Telegraph in the UK that describes the bailout effort.

At least Washington's Troubled Assets Relief Program to help struggling banks and save us all from ruin has been blessed with the perfect acronym; as TARP, it does indeed resemble an enormous canvas sheet thrown over a whole load of problems which we'll weigh down with tyres and leave to fester at the bottom of the yard.


TK: What did I read on Drudge the other day? Failure to pass the package could result in the broader stock market losing 25% of its value? Put in those terms, the bailout has to pass. By the way, check out this Youtube video on failed earlier attempts to reign in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Go here for the CBO report on the bailout effort. From that report, the very large costs and the hopeful (doubtful) upside to the deal:


CBO expects that the Treasury would use most or all of the $700 billion in purchase authority within two years (after which the authority to enter into agreements to purchase various troubled assets would expire). To finance those purchases, the Treasury would have to sell debt to the public. Federal debt held by the public would therefore rise by about $700 billion, although the government would also acquire valuable financial assets in the process. As noted above, CBO expects that since the acquired assets would have some value, the net budget impact would be substantially less than $700 billion; similarly, net cash disbursements under the program would also be substantially less than $700 billion over time because, ultimately, the government would sell the acquired assets and thus generate income that would offset much of the initial expenditures.

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Monday, September 22, 2008

A trillion here, a trillion there

A good blog to follow the bailout on Wall Street may be Daily Kos: State of the Nation and another Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. I'll put Mish's feed into the blog. Here is a sample from the economist Mish:

"We're going to be buying up a lot of mortgage paper" said House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank.Sadly, that will not do a single thing in and of itself to stop foreclosures. All that will do is bail out banks and brokers at taxpayer expense.Barney Frank also stated “We should be more willing to write down the mortgages. We’ll become the lender. The government will wind up in a controlling position so that we can reduce the number of foreclosures.”Congress needs to ask "How much extra will Barney Frank's proposal cost taxpayers?"Were does the madness end?As stated earlier the problem is not housing in the first place, and besides, taxpayers who pay their mortgages on time should not be subsidizing those who don't!

Paulson wants to recapitalize banks so they can keep lending. Ironically, one of the problems is lending. The US has been on a credit binge to such an extent that I have to ask what more do we need? More Pizza Huts? More Home Depots? More Houses? More Nail Salons? More Car Dealers? What?What is the urgent need to lend still more?We are in this mess because of too much reckless lending. We do not need more lending, we need more saving!Paulson's idea that more lending is needed is ass backwards. Paulson's proposal cheapens the dollar, and discourages the one thing that is desperately needed: saving.

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