Fresh Produce Discussion Blog

Created by The Packer's National Editor Tom Karst

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Truck rate report

Here is the summary information from the April 29 truck rate report from USDA. Note I also have a chart on the side of the blog charting some of the major shipping districts....
From USDA

A shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: citrus, mixed vegetables and tomatoes from Central and South Florida, melons from Florida, greens from South Georgia, sweet potatoes from Eastern North Carolina, and onions from Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas. A slight shortage of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: potatoes from Upper Valley, Twin Falls-Burley District Idaho. A barely adequate supply of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: onions from Vidalia District Georgia and sweet potatoes from Mississippi. A surplus of trucks was reported for the following commodities and regions: potatoes from San Luis Valley Colorado and Minnesota-North Dakota (Red River Valley).

FIRST REPORT was issued for peppers, corn, and green beans from Imperial and Coachella Valley California, melons from Florida, and mixed vegetables from Central San Joaquin Valley California. All other districts reported an adequate supply of trucks.

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Agricultural Prices Received and Paid

I went to a funeral of one of my uncles today in Topeka and saw my stepdad, a retired corn farmer in Nebraska (still with a rooting commercial interest in the corn crop, of course). After the service at my aunt's home I was ribbing him that $6 per bushel corn must be nice. He reminded me that when it takes $400 to fill a tractor with diesel fuel for one day, prices had better be good. That sentiment is reflected in today's Agricultural Prices report from the USDA, which showed priced received high but prices paid by farmers even pegging higher on the historical index.

April Farm Prices Received Index Declines 2 Points From March

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in April, at 144 percent, based on 1990-92=100, decreased 2 points (1.4 percent) from March. The Crop Index is unchanged but the Livestock Index decreased 4 points (3.1 percent). Producers received lower commodity prices for eggs, strawberries, cattle, and wheat. Higher prices were received for corn, lettuce, onions, and soybeans. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of cattle, strawberries, milk, and oranges offset decreased marketings of soybeans, corn, wheat, and cotton. The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 11 points (8.3 percent) from April 2007. The Food Commodities Index, at 140, decreased 5 points (3.4 percent) from last month but increased 5 points (3.7 percent) from April 2007.

Prices Paid Index Up 3 Points

The April Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 181 percent of the 1990-92 average. The index is up 3 points (1.7 percent) from March and 21 points (13 percent) above April 2007. Higher prices in April for field crop seeds, diesel fuel, feed grains, and hay & forages more than offset lower prices for feeder pigs,
feeder cattle, feed supplements, and complete feeds.

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Most cancer survivors fall short of 5 a day

If dread disease can't change the way we live and eat, then the campaign to promote fruit and vegetable consumption does indeed face steep challenges. Consider that a diagnosis of cancer isn't enough motivation for most people - four out of five, this research says - to consume recommended daily levels of fruits and vegetables. From Medpage comes this summary:

HALIFAX, Nova Scotia -- Many cancer survivors don't follow healthy lifestyles, according to epidemiologists here.
They are more likely to be non-smokers (82.6% to 91.6%) than adults in the general population (79.5%) but not more prone to exercise to recommended levels or to consume healthy diets, defined as having at least five servings of fruits and vegetables a day.
In a study of more than 9,000 patients with a history of prostate, breast, colorectal, bladder, uterine cancer, or melanoma, 80.9% to 85.2% were not following the dietary recommendation of eating at least five servings of fruits and vegetables a day, Chris Blanchard, Ph.D., of Dalhousie University here, and colleagues reported in the May issue of the Journal of Clinical Oncology.
And only 29.6% to 47.3% were getting the recommended 150 minutes of moderate-to-strenuous exercise or 60 minutes of strenuous physical activity a week, they said.
Only about one in 20 patients (3.6% to 5.8%) was following all three recommendations (smoking, diet, and exercise), and 7.3% to 12.5% were not following any.This is concerning, the researchers said, because health-related quality of life increased significantly (P<0.001)>
The fact that most cancer survivors are not making the lifestyle changes necessary to improve their long-term outcomes illustrates the need to find ways to promote adherence to recommendations like those from the American Cancer Society, the researchers said.
Also, past studies have shown that physical activity is linked to health-related quality of life in cancer survivors, but more information is needed on the relationship between quality of life, smoking, and the consumption of recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables, they said.Patients with a history of breast, prostate, or colorectal cancer who ate the recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables and who did not smoke had significantly higher health-related quality-of-life scores than those who did not meet those criteria (P<0.05).>Melanoma survivors had higher health-related quality-of-life scores if they followed the fruits and vegetables recommendation (P<0.05),>

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

It's not easy being green but people are up to it

This press release has all kinds of interesting data from a survey of organic/green shoppers querying their buying habits in view of the slumping economy. One in six consumers reported buying fewer natural and organic foods because of economic pressures. From the news release on PR Newswire:

Consumer interest in buying green environmentally friendly products and healthy organic food remains high despite the tough economy and rising food and energy prices. A recent market research survey released by Mambo Sprouts Marketing showed that consumers are placing a priority on buying green and 2 in 3 or more are using coupons, stocking up on sales and cooking meals at home to stretch their grocery dollars.

Even with the faltering economy and rising food and energy prices, about 9 in 10 (88%) consumers reported buying the same (52%) or more (36%) green environmentally friendly products vs. 6 months ago. About 7 in 10 consumers are still willing to spend up to 20% more for "green" sustainable products. Only 1 in 6 (17%) respondents reported buying fewer natural and organic foods, as individual comments suggested that short-term savings would have long-term costs to their family's health and the environment.

Results showed fuel prices are driving dual aspects of consumer behavior. Respondents are shopping closer to home and combining trips to reduce gas expense as well as buying more local and seasonal produce for lower prices and to reduce food miles and their carbon footprint.

Natural and organic consumers are using a variety of money saving strategies to offset higher food and energy prices, including: 1) increased reliance on coupons and sales; 2) preparing more meals at home; 3) wasting less of their purchases; 4) preparing more meatless, vegetarian meals; and 5) buying less bottled water -- using filtered and tap instead.

Money saving topics of interest to 2 in 3 consumers included: finding healthy coupons and offers online (77%), saving money on organics (74%) and healthy kid's meals and snacks (65% of families). According to Mambo Sprouts, consumer commitment to green and organic products reflects the increased media attention and awareness of the health and environmental benefits of buying organic, locally-produced, sustainable food.

The Mambo Sprouts survey focused on interest in shopping for green and organic products in tough economic times. The survey was issued in April 2008 and completed by over 1,000 natural and organic consumers. The survey was fielded by Mambo Sprouts Marketing, a leader in natural and organic product marketing and promotions (http://www.mambosprouts.com).

Website: http://www.mambosprouts.com//

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Not preaching to the choir

Japan has been resistant to GMO technology, but world events could be softening opposition. At least this speech by U.S. Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer to the 8th annual Life Sciences Summit in Tokyo on April 21 makes the case that Japan should embrace biotech agriculture. With talk of food security, he may be pushing the right buttons for the Japanese psyche.


A long excerpt:

Why then is there such public resistance to so many of the advances made by science in agriculture? Why are some people so afraid of things like genetically modified organisms, or GMOs as they are called? Why do some people fear products produced more by the latest science than products produced by the oldest superstitions? Is it because science is moving aster than our ability to explain it? Maybe. It seems to me that all of us whether we are in or out of government have a duty to defend science and common sense against irrationality and ignorance. Science has a much better chance of giving us what we need than myth and conspiracy theories. Biotechnology allows farmers to plant crops that will be less susceptible to disease, drought, and pests and more receptive to fertilizers and weed control. That will translate into higher yields, greater productivity, and safer products for consumers. What will be so bad about that? For the last decade, the use of biotech crops has been increasing at double digit rates. In 2007, over 114 million hectares of biotech crops were grown in 23 countries around the world. The United States is the biggest biotech producer, followed by Argentina and Brazil. To put it into perspective, the area planted in biotech crops last year was almost three times the size of the total land area of Japan. The number of farmers planting biotech crops has surged past 12 million. Some of these farmers are American, Australian, Canadian, and European, but more than 90% are small, resource-poor farmers from the developing world. The use of biotech crops is massive, growing, and transcends a country's level of economic development. Why are farmers around the world using this technology? Because it works. It delivers higher yielding crops that are easier on the environment and most of all are safe for human consumption. Farmers are also able to use these crops to increase the profitability of their farms, and improving the financial well-being of farmers is a policy most governments - including Japan - like to follow. It might surprise you to learn that Japan is already the world's largest importer of biotech crops, because millions of tons of biotech grain are imported for use as animal feed and for vegetable oil. But many Japanese consumers are reluctant to have biotech foods "on the end of their chopsticks." In 2004 and 2005, the U.S. Embassy participated in a study about Japanese views on agricultural biotechnology. The results were disappointing. We already knew that Japanese consumers are concerned about food safety, but we learned that they fear biotech foods for "unknown" long-term health effects. Many Japanese consumers said they did not feel that biotechnology offered them any benefits. Even more worrying was the fact that Japanese consumers in the study were unsure if the Japanese government itself was favorably disposed toward biotechnology. One factor that keeps biotech foods off Japanese shelves at the supermarket is the government requirement that they be labeled as "GMO." So far, no Japanese food manufacturer or retailer has been willing to test the market for GMO-labeled, consumer-ready food. We are hopeful that new products, like oils made from grains with health benefits, will change this. Biotech soybeans, for instance, enable more foods to be trans-fat free. Biotech soybeans are also rich in omega-3 oils which the human body cannot make. Studies show that a diet rich in omega-3 fats will reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. While these new products will have to be labeled as "GMO," we hope they will change consumer's existing views on biotechnology. Biotech crops also have the ability to combat malnutrition and disease. According to the World Health Organization, dietary deficiencies in vitamin A, iodine, iron, or zinc, can be major sources of disease and death. A lack of vitamin A alone causes up to 500,000 children a year to go blind. Consumption of biotech crops like "golden rice" could prevent that from happening. Right here in Japan a team of government, university, and company scientists has developed a rice that can act as a cholera vaccine. This kind of biotechnology could reduce suffering and save millions of lives. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that the world's population will grow by 50% to 9 billion souls in 2042. This will represent a tripling of the earth's population in less than a century. Higher incomes and urbanization are leading to major changes in dietary consumption. The world food economy is increasingly driven by a shift toward livestock products. We are seeing huge increases in per-capita consumption of fish, meat, and milk products, especially in Asia. This is not bad; it is good. But we must plan for its ultimate impact. It is likely that an additional 1 billion metric tons of cereal grains will be needed annually by 2030, which is a 50% increase over production in 2000. World cereal demand will double by 2050 with developing countries in Asia accounting for half of the increase in global demand. How will all these billions be fed? Through technology. We must employ it to raise more food on less land, so that we will minimize our environmental footprint. Without an increase in farm productivity, an additional 1.6 billion hectares of arable land would have to come under the plow by 2050. If that happened, it would have catastrophic consequences for the environment and make a reduction in greenhouse gases almost unachievable. Feeding people without destroying the environment will be a challenge. Mankind needs all the tools that are available, and none are better than biotechnology. Japan already imports more than 60% of its caloric intake. Food security is and should be of great concern, but Japan is just one part of a much bigger Asian market. The longer Japanese consumers are uneasy about biotechnology, the longer they will face the possibility of being shut out of world markets, and that is the essence of what good food security is all about.

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More bee deaths

Bees keeping dying, defying hopes that a rash of bee death/colony collapse headlines we experienced in the recent past are merely sensationalistic accounts that somehow got it wrong. This time the story is from Italy, and here is the link to the USDA FAS report:

Italian beekeepers and environmentalists are once again sounding the alarm regarding the unprecedented deaths of more than 40,000 bees over the last few months. In 2007, the population dropped by 50 percent. Industry representatives maintain that the decline in the bee population is primarily due to the use of pesticides. According to UNAAPI, Italian National Union of Beekeepers, the latest disaster to hit the nation's honeybee population has coincided with the planting of maize. While drought and disease could also be factors, the key suspect remains insecticide and the use of artificial forms of nicotine called neonicotinoids. Neonicotinoids is used for seed treatment. It is estimated that in 2007, approximately 200,000 beehives disappeared in Italy causing a massive drop in honey output, with agricultural damages over 250 million Euro. The Italian regions most affected by bee deaths are Piedmont and Lombardy, however, there have been bee deaths also in Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany and the center-north regions. During the 1990’s France severely limited the use of neonicotinoids following a large loss of bees. However, Italy has yet to ban/limit the use of neonicotinoids. The Italian Ministry of Agriculture is presently reviewing the possibility of issuing a moratorium on neonicotinoids, including a constant monitoring of the situation.
Meanwhile, UNAAPI has also urged the Italian Government to petition the EU for a European assessment on the impact of chemical substances on bees. According to UNAAPI, Italy accounts for 33% of the total amount of insecticide used each year in the EU, but has less than 10% of EU farm land. The impact of recent bee deaths on agriculture in Italy could be very serious. According to Italy's leading agricultural union, Coldiretti, a third of all farming
produce depends on insect pollination, of which 80% is carried out by bees. Coldiretti has noted that, “Should bees disappear it would not only destroy Italy's 25 million Euro honey industry but also affect most fruit crops, including apples, pears, almonds, peaches, kiwi, chestnuts, tomatoes, zucchini, soy, cherries, melons and citrus fruit.” The Italian bee industry is worth 1.6 billion Euro annually, with each hive generating about 1,240 Euro. Coldiretti has even gone so far as to ask the Italian government to revoke accords to test nine crops created with genetically modified organisms (GMOs), claiming that use of GMOs could be contributing to the demise of the native bee population.

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Mapping the grapevine genome

This USDA FAS report describes the successful mapping of the grapevine genome by Italian and French scientists. It is the first fruit and the second crop, after rice, to have its genome mapped. More from the USDA report:

Italian Agriculture Minister Paolo De Castro praised Italian and French researchers for successfully mapping the grapevine genome. De Castro is quoted as saying: "This is a great achievement in the field of plant biology. The first analysis of a grapevine's genome can now be applied to developing ones that are resistant to disease, reducing the need to use chemical pesticides." Italy and France signed an agreement in Paris in August 2005 to conduct the six million Euro, joint research program into a vine's genome. The goals of the project were: to boost the quality of wines and to protect grapevines from pests, making them better for consumers' health. The results of the joint Italo-French project were published in the August 26, 2007 edition of the magazine Nature. The project involved researchers from various Italian universities working under a national consortium and the Institute for Applied Genomics (IGA). The French researchers came from the National Genoscope Center and the Institute National per Recherche Agronomique (National Institute for Agronomic Research). According to project chief Enrico Pe', from the University of Milan, the scheme did not involve genetically modified organisms, which remain highly controversial in Europe. Other goals of the Italo-French project were to increase the grapevine’s tolerance of salty and dry conditions, so that grapes can be grown on a wider geographical scale; to produce stronger vines, reducing pruning requirements and loss due to extreme weather conditions; and to delve into the mechanisms of plant reproduction so that vines can be produced in all kinds of conditions. This latest breakthrough could create a foundation for improving quality traits of currently cultivated grapevines and establish new varieties that are more capable of adapting to the soil and weather conditions of specific wine-growing regions. The European wine industry is currently undergoing a full-scale reform of the common wine market in an attempt to revamp what has become an ailing sector. (Please see FAS Italy GAIN report IT6005 for the Wine Report). World wine retail sales are expected to increase over the next decade, with most of the growth expected for wine selling at more than $5 per bottle. Therefore, improving the quality of wine is seen as essential by European wine makers in order to maintain their competitiveness. The grapevine is the first fruit plant (cultivated for both fruit and beverage) and the second crop plant, after rice, to have its’ genome sequenced. Increased knowledge of the biological mechanisms of the grapevine will allow targeted approaches to reduce the number and impact of parasites, which could enable a sustainable, environmentally sound, farming policy. Results of the study can be viewed on line at the following websites:
http://www.vitisgenome.it
http://wwwappliedgenomics.org
http://www.genoscope.cns.fr/vitis

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Update - Kate Cyrul of Sen. Harkin's staff

From Kate Cyrul today, word that Agriculture Secretary Schafer and Deputy Secretary Conner both joined members for a closed door meeting. Here is what Kate said for attribution:

“The Chairman of the conference in conjunction with principal farm bill negotiators in the Senate and House postponed today’s conference meeting to allow time to continue negotiating. They asked USDA officials to join their discussions and are pleased that USDA demonstrated a willingness to come up to the Hill and negotiate with farm bill leaders. We are working to find common ground with the White House so that we can make this farm bill a reality.”

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Press conference - President Bush

It sure seems like President Bush either wants no part of a new farm bill or is eager to veto it. From the press conference of President Bush this morning:




Americans are concerned about rising food prices. Unfortunately, Congress is considering a massive, bloated farm bill that would do little to solve the problem. The bill Congress is now considering would fail to eliminate subsidy payments to multi-millionaire farmers. America's farm economy is thriving, the value of farmland is skyrocketing, and this is the right time to reform our nation's farm policies by reducing unnecessary subsidies. It's not the time to ask American families who are already paying more in the check-out line to pay more in subsidies for wealthy farmers. Congress can reform our farm programs, and should, by passing a fiscally responsible bill that treats our farmers fairly, and does not impose new burdens on American taxpayers.


Later....

Thank you, Mr. President. I'd like to ask you about an area --

THE PRESIDENT: You're welcome.

Q -- where food prices and energy come together; that's biofuels.

THE PRESIDENT: Yes.

Q The World Bank says about 85 percent of the increase in corn price since 2002 is due to biofuel -- increased demand for biofuels. And your Secretary of State said that -- indicated yesterday that she thought that might be part of the problem. Do you agree with that? And what can the United States do -- what more can the United States do to help make food more affordable around the world?

THE PRESIDENT: Actually, I have a little different take: I thought it was 85 percent of the world's food prices are caused by weather, increased demand and energy prices -- just the cost of growing product -- and that 15 percent has been caused by ethanol, the arrival of ethanol.

By the way, the high price of gasoline is going to spur more investment in ethanol as an alternative to gasoline. And the truth of the matter is it's in our national interests that our farmers grow energy, as opposed to us purchasing energy from parts of the world that are unstable or may not like us.

In terms of the international situation, we are deeply concerned about food prices here at home and we're deeply concerned about people who don't have food abroad. In other words, scarcity is of concern to us. Last year we were very generous in our food donations, and this year we'll be generous as well. As a matter of fact, we just released about $200 million out of the Emerson Trust as part of a ongoing effort to address scarcity.

One thing I think that would be -- I know would be very creative policy is if we -- is if we would buy food from local farmers as a way to help deal with scarcity, but also as a way to put in place an infrastructure so that nations can be self-sustaining and self-supporting. It's a proposal I put forth that Congress hasn't responded to yet, and I sincerely hope they do.

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No paid sick days in foodservice - bad news

Here is a blog post flagged by Doug Powell of the Food Safety Network about how company policy can work against food safety policy.From the post:

Last week, some 432 people became ill after eating at a Chipotle restaurant in Kent, Ohio because of a norovirus believed to have been brought to work by a sick employee who did not have paid sick days. To highlight the importance of paid sick days to the public health and encourage Ohio legislators to support the paid sick days legislation pending in the Ohio General Assembly, advocates will deliver "Burrito-Grams" (Chipotle burritos bearing messages) to the members of the Commerce and Labor Committee, urging them to support the Ohio Healthy Families Act, HB536.

Attorney's are cashing in against food service outlets that do not have paid sick days for their employees:

This Germ Central article leads with a Carrabba's restaurant incident in Michigan...

"Key in prevention...is rethinking sick-leave policies."

"Attorneys who specialize in food-borne illness complaints, however, contend that established sick-leave policies could offer restaurants some protection in the event of a lawsuit."

"Dave Babcock, an attorney with Marler Clark, a Seattle-based law firm that represented plaintiffs in the 1993 E. coli outbreak at Jack in the Box, pointed to a 1996 norovirus outbreak at the Reno Hilton in Nevada. In that case, a jury awarded six victims punitive damages of $25 million, in part because the casino did not have a sick-leave policy."

marlerclark.com a law firm discusses how an ill food service worker contaminated lettuce for sub sandwiches served by Blimpies at a school luncheon.

6 People with Hepatitis A Ate at Chipotle in La Mesa, California

In most hepatitis A cases, food served to the sickened patrons was contaminated with the feces of a food handler who had hepatitis A. In the case of a restaurant like Chipotle, the most likely scenario was that a sickened food handler contaminated food while cooking or serving the food.

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Conference postponed!

SUBJECT TO THE CALL OF THE CHAIR, HARKIN ANNOUNCES FARM BILL CONFERENCE MEETING POSTPONED

WASHINGTON D.C. – Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA), Chairman of the Senate-House Conference Committee on the farm bill, today postponed a meeting for all Senate and House farm bill conferees. Further details will be announced soon.

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Truckers protest

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Chile lemon report - USDA FAS

Chile expects another strong export year for lemons to the U.S, says this USDA FAS report.


Another good season is expected for lemon producers in Chile. Industry sources have indicated that as a result of a significant fall in the production in California and Arizona the market in the United States has become very attractive for Chilean lemon exports. Production in the States is expected to be lower close to 30 percent when compared to the previous year which will have a positive effect on international prices. As a result of the high demand and international prices, the United States increased their lemon exports to Japan, Canada, Australia and South Korea creating a deficit in the domestic supply which Chilean producers expect to fill partially together with Mexico and South Africa. The United States is Chiles main lemon export market in volume with 59 percent of total exports, followed by Japan which is on the other hand Chiles main export market in value. Lemons are harvested year-round in Chile, with the bulk of output from June through December. The main varieties are Sutil, Eureka and Genova. No official production or consumption data are maintained for lemons. Based on industry reports, we estimate that lemon production in Chile will keep expand slightly over the next years based on new plantings that are taken place. In addition, some older orchards have been replaced with higher-density plantings. But as lemons are sensitive to frost some production variations are observed year after year. The industry expects a slight fall in production for CY2008 as a result of frost in some important production areas during the winter (June through August) of 2007.
TK: Production and exports are projected about the same as last year, when the total production was near 47,000 metric tons and exports to the U.S. were more than 27,000 metric tons.

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Veggie Bus tour spreading the gospel of sustainability

The gospel of sustainability is taking to the road - not in a chartreuse VW bus, but pretty close...Check out this press release about the "Veggie Bus" tour:

In an eco-configured 1984 Van Hool Tour Coach fueled by recycled vegetable oil, an eclectic and inspired crew is traveling around the United States to educate consumers about conscious living. These "green missionaries" represent the Conscious Goods Alliance (CGA), a group of committed businesses who believe in promoting conscious lifestyles, products and brands, as well as consumers' ability to vote with their dollars.

Started by Stephen Brooks and Zak Zaidman, founders of Kopali Organics, the CGA is now in its third year, touring with 15 conscious companies. "The CGA bus tour generates an incredible amount of buzz around its sponsors and their products, as well as introducing people to alternative energy, sustainable materials and conscious commerce," said Stefan Schachter, co-founder of EcoTeas, one of the tour sponsors.

TK: Look for the bus at your local Whole Foods and Wild Oats. here is more schedule info at http://consciousgoodsalliance.com/

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Monday, April 28, 2008

Farm bill conference tomorrow

A source with the House Agriculture Committee said that funding issues have largely been worked out in farm bill negotiations, but contentious issues like payment limits for farm program commodities must be settled. "We're not in the clear yet." As it stands, the Specialty Crops title gets about $1.35 billion over five years, but no specifics on what programs get what yet.

Meanwhile, from Sen. Harkin:

HARKIN ANNOUNCES FARM BILL CONFERENCE MEETING

WASHINGTON D.C. – Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA), Chairman of the Senate-House Conference Committee on the farm bill, today announced a meeting for all Senate and House farm bill conferees.

The conference committee is scheduled for Tuesday, April 29, 2008, at 2:30 PM in room 1100 of the Longworth House Office Building.

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Interview with Rick Bella of America's Second Harvest

Had the chance to visit with Rick Bella of America's Second Harvest today. Rick does good work with produce suppliers in providing tens of millions of pounds of fresh produce to the nation's food banks. You'll be interested in some of his thoughts about the impact of the economic slowdown on food banks, and the importance of sourcing produce from nearby suppliers if at all possible. Stay tuned for coverage in The Packer....

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In the year 2022

What will the world look like in 2022? Probably quite a bit like today, considering the fact that 1994 wasn't all that much different than today. Smaller cellphone and faster computers, but what else could be new? Fast forward 14 years and try to imagine what will be - flatter TVs, sleeker cars, and oh yes, smaller cellphones and faster computers.

This 64 page pdf report - also on tap for analysis at the FMI Sustainability Summit in June - speaks to four possible scenarios for retailers in the year 2022. Called "Retail Futures: scenarios for the future of UK retail and sustainable development" the report from Forum for the Future was underwritten by Tesco and Unilever.

The paper gives four possible scenarios for retail development in 2022. (Sounds ominously close to Zager and Evans 1969 pop standard "In the year 2525") From the report:


First scenario: My Way:

This is an individualistic society, in which the internet and other technologies are held in high regard, and consumers are demanding and unpredictable. Local government is stronger and central government weaker. In general, there is an atmosphere of optimism, even in the face of a changing climate and a resource-constrained world, though society is deeply divided between haves and have-nots. This is a dynamic economy, characterised by a high level of ntrepreneurial activity, forcing large, established companies to innovate constantly to maintain their share of the pie. There is more community-based trade – even between communities in different parts of the world – sometimes bypassing traditional retail supply chains. Brands are less powerful, and traditional advertising less effective. Local communities in the UK are more environmentally, socially and economically sustainable, but less attention is paid to the wider impacts of retail beyond the UK.


Second Scenario: Sell it to me

The UK’s economy is buoyant and its people are confident. They are happy for big business to play a lead role in meeting their needs and expectations, rather than take personal responsibility for doing so. They expect businesses to invest in the centralised infrastructure required to solve environmental and other problems, and don’t feel a duty to change their ‘pleasure seeking’ lifestyles in order to do so. Consumers are spending heavily with trusted brands, but have high expectations for the best in personalised products and entertainment. They expect shopping to be a pleasure, not a chore. They trust business with large amounts of their personal information. Environmental and social concerns are mainstream, up there with health or effective public services. There is confidence in international institutions to help solve the world’s problems. Income inequalities remain high. Combined with strong consumer-based affiliations, this leaves geographical social cohesion relatively weak.


Third scenario: From me to you

The economy is rather subdued and uncertain, and fear about climate change and severe weather events has increased. Most people don’t feel a great sense of connection to large companies or government. The wider public realm is increasingly neglected and there is a preference for home-grown solutions, which are perceived as better, cheaper and more efficient. The ‘wellbeing’ agenda dominates public and policy discourse. The personal debt crisis persists. Younger people tend to accumulate large amounts of debt at an early age, while 50- and 60-somethings are facing the prospect of elderly life without a decent pension. This means less disposable income, and consequently a contraction in the retail sector. ‘Grow your-own’ produce and urban farming have both undergone a surge in popularity, as have peer-to-peer services for swapping and selling goods. People often club together to buy collectively using the internet as a tool to deliver co-operative buying power. Co-operatives are on the rise, offline and online.

Fourth scenario: I'm in your hands


Consumer confidence is low, and people look to government and large businesses for security and solutions. Business focuses on providing low cost options, achieving efficiencies of scale, bundled products and services, long-term tie-ins, hire purchase arrangements and conservative, reassuring options. Paternalistic, trusted brands have survived and prospered. It’s a more structured, centralised and supervised existence. There’s more surveillance and more CCTV, which is generally welcomed as being in the public interest. Environmental behaviour change is achieved largely through sweeping regulation. Patio heaters and other undesirables have simply been banned. Some pressure groups object to what they call a threat to civil liberty, but they lack credibility in the mainstream and get little favourable media coverage. This is a more egalitarian society, with a smaller gap between rich and poor. There is a strong sense of community, a feeling of affinity with nation and a more established politics of consensus.


TK; From where I sit now, I would place the future as a combination of #1 (My way) and #3 (From me to you). While the #2 scenario may be the wish of retailers (Consumers trust business with large amounts of their personal information!), I think people may be less trusting of bigger institutions than might be assumed.


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FMI Sustainability Powerpoint

As I was writing a story about the FMI's Sustainability Summit in Minneapolis in June, I came across this powerpoint on the topic:


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Sunday, April 27, 2008

More on climate change and gardens

The issues of climate change and growing your own garden seem inexorably linked. Here, speaking to the issue of climate change and "what we should do," is the recent opinion piece "Why bother?" by Micheal Pollan. Putting the weight of the world's future on what individuals do or don't do with a vegetable patch is a heavy burden. But Pollan argues for the collateral benefits as well:

But there are sweeter
reasons to plant that garden, to bother. At least in this one corner of your yard and life, you will have begun to heal the split between what you think and what you do, to commingle your identities as consumer and producer and citizen. Chances are, your garden will re-engage you with your neighbors, for you will have produce to give away and the need to borrow their tools. You will have reduced the power of the cheap-energy mind by personally overcoming its most debilitating weakness: its helplessness and the fact that it can’t do much of anything that doesn’t involve division or subtraction. The garden’s season-long transit from seed to ripe fruit — will you get a load of that zucchini?! — suggests that the operations of addition and multiplication still obtain, that the abundance of nature is not exhausted. The single greatest lesson the garden teaches is that our relationship to the planet need not be zero-sum, and that as long as the sun still shines and people still can plan and plant, think and do, we can, if we bother to try, find ways to provide for ourselves without diminishing the world.

TK: We will all have gardens if it means we can avoid having a big climate change tax imposed on us. I rather think Pollan's quaint solution is preferable to the big government response.

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Sustainability - why, why, why?

A blog post asks the same question Dogbert does about sustainability (What's in it for me?) but comes up with a more selfless answer. From Pete Burden in the UK:

Why does this all matter? It’s a question that rattles around in the back of my mind a lot.

I am convinced by the urgency of doing something positive, and I can see that there is a huge opportunity waiting. But I really like the “why?” question. Was it Ricardo Semler - of Seven Day Weekend fame - who said his company’s strategy is to ask the question “Why?” repeatedly when faced by any new initiative or problem? I think he said it helps them prioritise, and ensure they only spend time on the things that give the most real benefits. That’s something I guess we would all aspire to.

And it’s such a simple technique.

So “why” do something about climate change? Why do something about poverty? Why try to seize the sustainability opportunity, when there are probably plenty of easier ways to make a living, and probably easier ways to make money, if that is your goal too.

I read a little piece by Rosie Boycott the other day in a very good book called “Do good lives have to cost the earth” by Andrew Simms and Joe Smith. I wouldn’t normally have much time for something written by a former editor of the Express newspaper. I can’t be bothered with newspapers at the best of times, let alone the Express. But she reminded me that the reason we need to do something in the UK about climate change is partly to show our leadership to the rest of the world. This in turn reminded me that we need to do the same about sustainability in general, even though the UK is a small country with relatively little impact on these global matters.

So one answer to the question “why? is that we should do it because we can - we have the wealth and security. And we also should do it because we have a responsibility and an opportunity to show leadership to business people all over the world.

If we in the developed world can’t make good sense and good lives out of the opportunities arising from sustainability, how can we expect others to do the same? And, with the size of the opportunities and the size of the problems, we really need these others to be part of the solution too.

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Pick your own - back in vogue?

The u-pick operation can never market itself like a trip to the grocery store. It is a weekend day trip, preferably accompanied by kids. It is making memories, picking blueberries for an hour or so then eating them on the way home. Yet the u-pick is getting some press as a cheaper alternative than a trip to the supermarket. Check this story from WPSDTV.

Another news item for fruits and vegetables today was the advice to omnivores to be a sometime vegetarian: "For better health, be a part time vegetarian." by Gale Maleskey, MS, RD. I think a better term of art is needed than "part time vegetarian." Are you still a part time vegetarian while downing a quarter pounder? This column was posted on a Web site optimistically called www.stopagingnow.com. The author had this "bottom line": the plant based diet offers the best protection against some of the most common diseases of aging. Count me in..part of the time, at least.


"We can all be gourmet gardeners."
This story from The Telegraph of the UK is a nod to the accomplished green thumb. "A vegetable patch, allotment, fruit orchard, or even a few pots on the windowsill, allow us the pleasure of handpicking fruit and vegetables and putting them straight onto the plate."
But don't make it sound so easy..The next tomato I harvest from a backyard plant will be my first. In what seems to be a great reader interest promotion, The Telegraph is launching a Food Garden Competition, with judging done by a panel including a chef, organic farmer, head gardener and a journalist. Here is some advice on options:

Another option could be to replace the front lawn with vegetables. This need not consist of a sea of Brussels sprouts and bare soil nudging up against the parked car, but could take the form of a few marginally raised fixed beds. I have seen front gardens devoted to a mass of vegetables and they can look amazingly good.

Amazingly good, but better than a green blanket of weedless turf?

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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Time for a change

While potato industry objections to being excluded from WIC are beginning to make news, here is a story from the The LA Times that looks forward to the changes to WIC food packages. From the story:



As food prices spiral higher, the quality of a diet can really suffer. Starchy, sugary, fatty foods are filling and relatively inexpensive compared with fruits, vegetables and lean meats. The effects of a tight budget on food choices are particularly concerning for people who may find healthful foods difficult to afford: low-income mothers and their children.

Soon, they will be getting some overdue help.

For the first time in its 35-year history, the federal Women, Infants and Children (WIC) Supplemental Nutrition Program -- which provides food vouchers to millions of households nationwide -- will, starting October 2009, allow participants to buy fresh fruits and vegetables, whole grains and soy-based products.

It's about time. The mission of the WIC program is to safeguard the health of low-income children up to age 5 as well as pregnant, postpartum and lactating low-income women, who are considered to be at nutritional risk. Since the program's inception in the 1970s, knowledge about nutrition has advanced considerably -- but the WIC food provisions have remained mostly unchanged.

The original list of eligible foods made no provisions for children or pregnant women to obtain fruits and vegetables. There were no fresh fruits, only juice. Fresh carrots were the sole vegetable that could be purchased with WIC vouchers, but only by lactating mothers. (Vouchers could also be used to purchase whole milk, dried beans or peanut butter, certain fortified cereals, and up to two dozen eggs and 3 pounds of cheese a month.)

In 2003, concerned by rising obesity rates and WIC participants' poor diet quality, the U.S. Department of Agriculture commissioned the Institute of Medicine (which advises the government on medical matters) to suggest modifications to the existing food packages. The institute's report, released in 2005, recommended sweeping changes in the food program. They were approved by the USDA in December.

The foods that will qualify next year are more consistent with the government's Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which emphasize the importance of including fruits, vegetables, whole grains and fat-free or low-fat dairy products on the menu.

They'll also be more in line with the messages long provided in WIC's nutrition education classes.

This should be a relief to WIC's health educators, who stress to participants the importance of consuming more produce and whole grains -- even though the program hasn't helped participants obtain these items.

By far the most significant change will be the provision of cash-value vouchers, redeemable at regular grocery stores and farmers markets, that can be used to buy fruits and vegetables -- items that often go by the wayside when a food budget is stretched to the limit.

Only about 10% of Americans consume the recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables.

A typical American family spends 15% to 18% of its food budget on produce. But, according to a survey published in November in the Journal of the American Dietetic Assn., a low-income family would need to spend 43% to 70% of its food budget on fruits and vegetables to meet the dietary guidelines.

The new WIC plan also will allow the purchase of whole-grain products such as breads, oatmeal and brown rice -- in contrast to the old package, which allowed only fortified cereals, which were not necessarily whole-grain.

The government's dietary guidelines call for at least three daily servings of whole grains to reap the benefits of their fiber, vitamins, minerals and phytonutrients. But the average person doesn't consume even one.

In other WIC changes, whole-milk purchases will be allowed only for the youngest children -- those older than 2 will get milk that's 2% fat or less -- and the amounts of cheese, eggs and fruit juice that can be purchased will be reduced. These changes are geared at reducing dietary saturated fat and cholesterol, and calorie-laden beverages such as fruit juice.

The changing ethnic composition and dietary preferences of WIC participants is being acknowledged too -- the number of Latino participants has doubled since 1988, and the number of Asian participants has grown sharply. Families will now be able to use vouchers to buy items such as soy milk, tofu and whole-grain flour or corn tortillas.

By reducing the availability of high-fat, high-calorie items and instead offering more healthful, lower-calorie items, the new WIC package stands to improve the nutritional status of an enormous number of women and children. There are more than 8 million WIC participants nationwide -- 1.4 million participants in California alone -- who will be grateful to have some help in purchasing more healthful foods at prices they can afford.

Susan Bowerman is a registered dietitian and assistant director of the UCLA Center for Human Nutrition.

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Friday, April 25, 2008

Harkin announces core farm bill agreed to

From the office of Harkin: "Specific details and funding have to be worked out".....

Washington, D.C. – Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry and the Senate-House conference committee on the farm bill, today said that the core farm bill utilizing the $10 billion above baseline has been worked out among key farm bill negotiators. Specific details and funding will still have to be worked out and are all subject to ratification by the full conference committee. Chairman Harkin intends to convene the conference committee on Monday.


“Today the principal farm bill negotiators came together on a bipartisan level to reach a tentative agreement on the agriculture policy that will make the final farm bill a strong one.
“The tentative agreement reached today maintains strong farm income security and a permanent disaster program. It will solidify the future of the Conservation Security Program, now the Conservation Stewardship Program, returning it to the program it was intended to be when first enacted in the 2002 farm bill. It invests heavily in renewable energy and will help bring the promise of cellulosic biofuels to reality by providing grants and loans to move from corn ethanol to other renewable feedstocks. And our agreement will lead to more fresh fruits and vegetables in our nation’s elementary schools and stronger assistance to low-income Americans through federal nutrition programs.
“All in all, this is a balanced agreement that will now be considered by the full conference committee Monday.”

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National Retail Report - April 25

Earth day and produce converged this week, so retailers weren't shy about promoting organic. From the USDA National Retail Report from April 25:

Seasonal and Organic Items Highlighted
This week’s grocery ads again reminded shoppers that grilling season is here, with sales on meat, sweet corn, and red peppers prominent nationwide. There were also several ads promoting natural and organic selections in honor of April 22 Earth Day celebrations. These ads included a wide variety of items such as, organic apples, natural peanut butter, bottled
juices, and organic bathroom tissue. Many retailers featured strawberries on the front page of their ads, with many ads of the buy-one-get-one free type. Compared to last week, overall fresh produce ads this week were down over 6 percent with a decline of nearly 11 percent on fruit ads and a decline of nearly 2 percent on vegetable ads. There was a significant drop in the number of grape, honeydew, and Bartlett pear ads this week. Three of the top five commodities advertised this week were vegetables: sweet onions, tomatoes on the vine, and corn. Other vegetables that showed an increase in the number of ads despite the overall drop from last week were: asparagus, russet potatoes and red bell peppers. The sharp increase in the number of sweet onion ads can be attributed to the Vidalia onion season in Georgia being well underway.

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Produce Safety - FDA Powerpoint

Thanks to Michelle Smith of FDA sharing this powerpoint about produce safety:


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Infiltration studies - FDA

Michelle Smith of FDA reviewed this report with me while in my visit to FDA offices in College Park.....


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Dingell on food safety

Here is the discussion draft offered by John Dingell, of the Subcommittee on Health Hearing of the ‘Food and Drug Administration Globalization Act’ Legislation: Food Provisions"

Dingell grilled Cal Dooley of the GMA on April 24, but left him no opportunity to respond, to the point of being comical. See the link here.

Statement of Congressman John D. Dingell, Chairman Committee on Energy and Commerce

SUBCOMMITTEE ON HEALTH HEARING ON “DISCUSSION DRAFT OF THE ‘FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION GLOBALIZATION ACT’ LEGISLATION: FOOD PROVISIONS

Mr. Chairman, thank you for holding this very important hearing today. For more than a year, this Committee has been vigorously investigating whether the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the resources and authorities it needs to protect the public health. With the assistance of Reps. Stupak and Shimkus, we have held seven hearings to investigate reports of tainted foods, with causes ranging from intentional adulteration to poor manufacturing processes. What we have found, and what has been confirmed by FDA’s own Science Board, is that the FDA lacks the resources and authority to adequately oversee the Nation’s food supply in the 21st century.

Although the agency has been less than forthcoming about its funding needs, it is evident to almost everyone else— from the experts to our constituents—that the agency is starved for resources and cannot meet its basic responsibilities. The Discussion Draft that today’s hearing will focus on begins our efforts to seek legislative solutions to this public health crisis.

First, this Discussion Draft aims to increase the resources FDA needs to do its job. As the FDA Science Board found, as a result of years of chronic underfunding, “FDA does not have the capacity to ensure the safety of food for the nation.” The Science Board called the rate at which FDA inspects food facilities “appallingly low” and notes that FDA has been forced to cut food inspections by 78 percent over the past 35 years at precisely the time food importation has increased exponentially. FDA estimates that, at most, it inspects domestic food manufacturers once every 10 years. For foreign food facilities, at its current rate of inspection FDA would need more than 2,000 years to visit every plant. This system must change.

Second, because we can’t just inspect our way out of this problem, the Draft also provides FDA with resources and authorities to prevent food safety problems before they occur. Building on legislation introduced by Subcommittee Chairman Pallone, we ask those who supply Americans their food to ensure the safety of their products. And when prevention fails, the FDA must have strong, flexible enforcement tools, including the authority to order a recall as Rep. DeGette and others have suggested. Many are reaping the benefits of globalization; we must also make sure that all parts of the food chain bear some responsibility as well.

Finally, the draft provides a range of incentives for good actors in the global system. Many companies with reputations to protect are on the cutting edge of food safety. In the absence of effective FDA oversight, they are using their purchasing power to urge improvements in safety from their suppliers. We must reward those who work to build preventative measures into their products. At the same time, we must ferret out bad actors who seek to game the regulatory system and pass off contaminated products as safe for consumption. As we have learned from tragic events caused by E. coli-contaminated spinach and the pet food spiked with melamine, lack of regulatory diligence can lead to deaths of people and pets.

Mr. Chairman, food, drug, device, and cosmetic safety are not partisan issues, and we will not make them so. I look forward to working with all of my colleagues on the Committee, especially our Ranking Member, Mr. Barton. As we have previously worked together on legislation important to the American people – such as the Consumer Product Safety Modernization Act and the National Institutes of Health reauthorization – I hope we can work together to craft good, sensible legislation that provides the necessary resources and authorities for the Food and Drug Administration to fulfill its critical mission.

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"You can't go wrong with fruits and vegetables"

Sunny D, Little Debbie snacks and $1 double cheeseburgers from McDonald's are not the only ways to eat cheap. Here is a good piece from The South County Journal , in which dietitian Katie Eliot comes to the defense of fresh - and frozen - fruits and veggies. From the story:

Food costs have gone up, but it doesn't mean people have to eat junk.

"I think there's a huge misconception people can't eat healthy on a tight budget," said Katie Eliot, a registered dietitian and instructor in the department of nutrition and dietetics at Saint Louis University.

Eliot provides some helpful hints on healthy foods when it comes to purchases. "You can't go wrong with fruits and vegetables," she said.If people are looking to cut costs consider buying fruit and vegetables that are in season or will be shortly, including strawberries, melons and asparagus.

If fresh produce prices are too high for your budget think about using canned or frozen fruits and vegetables. They are produced year-round so costs can be lower for these items.

"Frozen is just as nutritious as fresh," Eliot said. "Sometimes frozen is more healthy."

With fresh vegetables they can be exposed to oxygen every time the refrigerator is opened, which destroys the nutrients.

If using canned items Eliot offers a word of caution. Canned goods are often higher in sodium so she recommends people rinse the fruit or vegetables to reduce the sodium content.

"One place people go wrong is buying convenience items," she said. "All that energy input you end up paying for."

Whether it be cut up vegetables or ready-to-cook pastas in the microwave, costumers will pay for ease. Instead Eliot suggests doing some preparation work on the weekend. Take time to cut up vegetables and put them in the freezer.

"If you take time to make dinners and freeze individual meals you have something such as a frozen dinner, which reduces packaging and saves money."

A few other ways to reduce the total bill is to drink water from the tap and eliminate soda and bottled water. Also, consider using an alternative source of protein one day a week, such as beans.

"Planning ahead is your ace in the hole in terms of time and money," Eliot said. "When making out a menu for the week base them on store specials and coupon offers."

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Food inflation - More notes

Maybe it really is time for the "Victory Garden." As The Wall Street Journal publishes an opinion column that it might be time for Americans to start stockpiling food, there are more reports from around the globe about food price inflation. From the FAS post in China:

On April 16, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI for the first quarter of 2008 grew eight percent. This increase was partially a result of a 21 percent increase in food prices, which account for about one third of China's CPI. These increases are mostly attributed to cost-push inflation, increased consumption, and greater demand for food products throughout China. Short global agricultural commodity supplies, devastating winter storms, and animal diseases have also contributed to sharp increase in food prices over the last year in China. The central government has responded with various measures to decrease producer costs and maintain domestic supplies, leading to a generally increased level of government intervention in the market.

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Thursday, April 24, 2008

A question from Rick

A question from our good friend Rick Bella of America's Second Harvest. I think of the USDA's Agricultural Prices report first. Does anyone have any other thoughts for Rick on cost comparisons?



Hi Tom,
I know that you track produce f.o.b. costs over past years and usually post those to the blog.

I have pasted below our experience with costs over the past 5-years and wonder if you have comparable data in the categories listed.

Naturally, packs and sizes varied but we’d like to just get a feel for what the industry did on like items listed. Can you assist or point me in a direction to obtain this type of data? Some of our own increases were due to program pack changes moving to more retail sized packaging which naturally costs more.

Thanks much and I hope we can get together at United. Rick

F.O.B. cost per pound - top 10

2003-2007 percentage change

4 year Compound annual growth rate

Potatoes

46.0%

9.9%

Apples

6.1%

1.5%

Watermelon

28.2%

6.4%

Onions

103.0%

19.4%

Yams

106.7%

19.9%

Carrots

29.1%

6.6%

Cabbage

36.7%

8.1%

Oranges

-56.6%

-18.9%

Pears

270.0%

38.7%

Sweet Corn

81.0%

16.0%

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